If Opening Day was tomorrow, which starters deserve one of the final two spots in the New York Yankees starting rotation?
After 25 days of spring training for the New York Yankees, the battle for the final two spots in the starting rotation is far from being decided — despite the moderate success experienced by the candidates.Overall, the candidates — Luis Severino, Chad Green, Luis Cessa, Bryan Mitchell and Adam Warren — have combined for an ERA of 3.40 across 34.4 innings of work and have struck out 25 batters compared to walking 14.
Those numbers aren’t exactly as superb as they were after the first week of games, but it is certainly the opposite of the shakiness that was expected entering 2017.
Yes, the uninspiring competition is far from over, but who would get the final two spots if today was April 2, though? Elite Sports NY brings you its frontrunners of the rotation battle as we draw closer to the conclusion of spring training.
5. Chad Green
Green may have only given up one run in 5.2 innings of work so far (1.59 ERA), but there are some signs that support his ranking in this week’s power ranking.
First off, the 25-year-old has walked five batters and has only struck out three. In his latest outing against the Philadelphia Phillies, Green didn’t allow a run but walked three while tossing 38 pitches (only 22 of them for strikes).
The command is something we were looking for Green to cut down on, as his 3.0 BB/9 rate during his brief cameo in 2016 led to a home run rate of 2.4. While he’s kept the ball in the ballpark this spring, he owns the highest batting average against (.286) among the five candidates. He also doesn’t have the upside that Cessa has, which also knocks him down a peg.
4. Adam Warren
Warren has done nothing to keep him on the outside looking in, besides be one of the most versatile and valuable pitchers on the Yankees’ roster.
Through three games (two starts), Warren has allowed three runs over eight innings of work (3.38 ERA) and while he’s held the opposition to a .179 batting average, three of the five hits he has surrendered have been home runs. But even if the results surpassed everyone in the competition, he will profit the Bombers much greater in his comfortable swing-man role.
I’ve mapped it out in a column before, but to recap: over his five-year career in the majors, Warren owns a 3.88 ERA and a 6.6 K/9 ratio as a starter compared to 3.51 ERA and 8.0 K/9 ratio as a reliever. More importantly, however, he has averaged 1.32 innings per relief appearance throughout his 184 career outings out of the ‘pen and could help bridge the gap to the back-end tandem of Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman.
Throughout the first half of the 2016 season, Yankee starters averaged jut 5.76 innings per start and while the unit’s ERA was high (4.81), there was no sufficient arm present to help carry leads to the three-headed monster — which explains the 5.28 middle relief ERA and why No Runs DMC couldn’t keep the Yankees over .500.
In case you forgot how important that long relief role is, just read the aforementioned column.
3. Luis Cessa
Cessa is really close with Severino and it’s debatable that he clinches the fifth spot if the rotation alignment was decided tomorrow, but he hasn’t separated himself from the crowd yet. Therefore, he’s on the outside looking in by a hair.
Through three appearances (one start) in Grapefruit League play, Cessa has posted a 3.00 ERA and has held opponents to just five hits in six innings (.227 BAA). Following his major league debut on April 8, 2016, and settling in a rotation spot by August 20 the 24-year old right-hander pitched to a 4.01 ERA and only struck out 35 batters in 51.2 innings (nine starts).
While he was encouraging, he also gave up 11 home runs, so we’re still waiting for the upside (mapped out in this column) to become a force of consistency. Unless that occurs this spring and he separates himself from the others, he could find himself in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre to work on fastball command.
2. Luis Severino
The candidate with arguably the highest upside in the competition came out of the gate with his much-improved changeup and gave the Yankees a burst of optimism.
Now, with a fastball command that has matured into a re-occurring problem, Severino may be allowing his rotation job to slip away.
Through two starts, the 22-year old has yielded a 4.15 ERA in 4.1 innings of work and has struck out five batters. If you include his start against Team Canada (which MLB.com does not), Severino has given up four runs in 6.1 innings of work (5.68 ERA) while walking three and striking out nine.
The fastball, while it can touch 99 mph, has often risen up in the zone thus making it susceptible to the long ball. Last season, Severino yielded a .302 batting average against and a .528 slugging percentage against with the fastball.
During his last outing against the Canadians, Severino let up a two-run blast to Tyler O’Neill on a slider, but in the previous at-bat, the righty surrendered a single to Dalton Pompei on a fastball that was supposed to go inside but deviated away from the target and down the middle of the plate.
It’s the little things that are holding Severino back and unless the command of the fastball improves with the nice mix of the changeup we’re seeing, his sophomore season will be no fluke. With that said, the Yankees are determined to have him pan out as a starter and unless Green or Cessa put the pressure on or out-perform Severino, there will be a rotation spot waiting for him.
1. Bryan Mitchell
Mitchell did take a step back from where he stood during the last ranking, but thanks to no one else taking advantage of an opportunity to get a leg up, the righty still leads the way.
Through four games (three starts), Mitchell has held opponents to a .214 batting average while giving up five runs in 11.1 innings of work (3.97 ERA). He also owns more strikeouts than anyone one else in the competition.
His third exhibition start on Monday against the Pirates at Lecom Park was the lone rough patch for Micthell, as he surrendered four of his total five runs in 2.1 innings of work but if you need any backing of our decision to go with the 25-year-old in the top spot, look no further than his track record.
Mitchell went 2-0 with a 0.57 ERA in spring training last year and finished with a 3.24 ERA in five starts with the Yankees after being held to 46 total innings between the minors and majors in 2016. If he stayed healthy, Mitchell could have been a difference maker and now that he’s showing determination to earn a rotation spot in 2017, there’s nothing (through 2 1/2 weeks) presently impeding that possibility.
This ranking is simply putting these hurlers where they should be based on their current performance and state of the battle in general.
If you look at where they all sit, nobody has truly segregated themselves from the rest of the contenders which is good news for Severino, who the Yankees truly want to pan out as a starter, and bad news for a guy like Warren, who would be a disservice to New York if not placed in the bullpen. That’s why Severino, who had a rough week with flaws, is ahead of Warren despite the fact that Warren has had the better numbers.
What do you think, fans? Who should have rotation spots if Opening Day was tomorrow? Let your voice be heard in the comments below.