Vincent Carchietta | USA TODAY Sports

Saquon Barkley just quadrupled down on himself. And early indications suggest he faces steep odds to make this gamble pay off.

The star running back will report to the Giants after folding and accepting what is basically his already-standing franchise tag tender, plus $900,000 in incentives as a sweetener. The rub for Barkley: If he maxes out, his 2024 second-year tag rate increases from $12.2 million to $13.2 million.

(We will just agree to not debate the value of passing up $22 million to bet $12 million you can make $14 million for now.)

So how attainable are these incentives? They are not necessarily impossible to achieve. But they will certainly not be a walk in the park.

Barkley has three magic numbers — 1,350 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns and 65 receptions — worth $300,000 each. And he only gets paid out if he hits those numbers and the Giants make the playoffs, according to The Record.

If Barkley is healthy — still a big question — he can hit those numbers, based on past production. But he has never hit 1,350 rush yards and has only hit 11-plus touchdowns and 65-plus receptions once, as a rookie in 2018. And the playoff clause is even more concerning for him.

It is great Barkley believes in the Giants. But this is still a team that won a bunch of one-score games last season, limped into the postseason with a 2-5-1 stretch run, will struggle to sustain its defensive metrics and still has major personnel questions on offense.

Again: It is impressive how badly Barkley and his agents botched this whole thing.

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James Kratch can be reached at Follow him on Twitter @jameskratch.

James Kratch is the managing editor of ESNY. He previously worked as a Rutgers and Giants (and Mike Francesa) beat reporter for NJ Advance Media.