bills titans player props
PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

The Buffalo Bills will look to deliver a primetime encore after a lights-out performance last week. That win exacted some revenge from the AFC Championship loss last season and this trip to Tennessee presents another opportunity for the Bills to pay back a 2020 foe. The Titans demolished the Bills last season, so we will find out if Josh Allen can engineer another impressive effort to balance the scales.

Let’s take a look at this NFL Week 6 Monday Night Football matchup with our best Bills vs. Titans player props picks.

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Bills vs. Titans Player Props

Derrick Henry Under 97.5 Rushing Yards

This one, like most wagers on an under, is unlikely to be stress-free. We are asking the league’s leading rusher, a guy who has rushed for at least 113 yards in four straight games, to not do what he’s famous for doing. However, there are plenty of subtle reasons why we think this prop can definitely cash.

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To begin, Henry’s lone game in which he didn’t top this total this season was in Week 1 against Arizona. Coincidentally, that’s the only game Henry rushed the ball less than 28 times (17) and also the only game the Titans lost at home. It was also their only regulation loss and their only loss by more than one score.

These things all correlate for us, as we could see this game going in a similar direction as that 38-13 Titans loss. If Tennessee gets demolished by Buffalo at home, there won’t be many rushing plays in the second half, both for the purposes of saving the clock and protecting the team’s franchise player if the game is a clear loss.

Furthemore, Henry has been used and abused this season. As mentioned, he has rushed the ball at least 28 times in each of the team’s last four games. However, last season, despite winning the rushing crown by over 500 yards, he only reached that many rushes in a game three times, including the playoffs. This guy is going to need a break at some point.

What better spot to change things up than against a Bills defense that’s allow just 78.4 rushing yards per game, the third least in the league. After all, the other rush defenses Tennessee has faced this season are ranked 14th or worse against the run. Buffalo has been run on the third least number of times per game (21.4) and has the fourth best rushing yards per attempt against average (3.7).

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On top of it all, this could potentially be a very short game. Buffalo (59.2) and Tennessee (60.4) allow the 5th and 8th least plays per game by opponents. The team that has the lead knows it has the horses to bleed the clock and the odds say that will be Buffalo, minimizing the chances Henry gets to touch the ball and crack this prop bet.

Over the last two years, Derrick Henry has had one single regular season game with less than 60 yards rushing. Do you know which team was the only one to hold him that low during a run of 30 games? That’s right, Buffalo did it last season when they bottled him up for 57 yards on 19 carries (3.0 ypc). Of final note, during that stretch, Tennessee has lost 10 games. Henry failed to top this rushing total in 8 of those 10 games. So, if you think the Titans are going to lose this one, your odds are good that you will cash on this prop pick.

Anthony Firkser Anytime Touchdown Scorer

You have to appreciate the value here for Anthony Firkser to find the endzone. Firkser has led all Tennessee tight ends in both receptions and targets in all three games in which he featured this season, catching three balls in each. He could see even more action if Buffalo dominates the scoreboard, as the line suggests they might, forcing the Titans to throw the ball more often.

Buffalo has only allowed six offensive touchdowns all season, but it is notable that five of those were receiving touchdowns. In fact, even more eye-catching for us is the fact that two of the last three were caught by tight ends and each happened to be the final score the Bills’ opponents mustered.

Could another late, meaningless touchdown to a tight end be in the cards once again here?

Last season, when these two met and Tennessee dominated the Bills, Titans tight ends caught eight of the 21 completions thrown by Ryan Tannehill. Jonnu Smith pulled down five of those and was the beneficiary of two touchdown passes from Tannehill. Smith is now in New England, and Firkser, who caught three balls in that 2020 meeting, is the preferred tight end option in Tennessee.

With Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones drawing so much attention from Buffalo on the outside, expect Firkser to get some quality looks in this one and potentially sneak across the line for a great return on this prop.

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Ryan Tannehill Over 33.5 Pass Attempts

Again, if you subscribe to the belief that oddsmakers are pretty decent at what they do, then seeing Buffalo as heavy road favorites here in a game with a total around 53 should give you some clues as to the type of game they expect. As such, the odds favor a relatively high-scoring game that Buffalo wins, possibly handily. This recipe lends to a belief that Ryan Tannehill is going to be forced into throwing the ball a considerable amount here, either taking part in a back-and-forth shootout or playing catch-up against the league’s top scoring offense that appears unstoppable right now.

We also mentioned Derrick Henry’s borderline abusive workload so far this season, even compared to his 2,000 yard effort last year. Tennessee is going to have to find a way to give him a break at some point and the alternative to pounding the rock every down seems to necessitate Tannehill throwing the ball regularly.

Now, putting conjecture aside for a bit, let’s focus on the numbers. Buffalo’s opponents throw the ball the 18th most in the NFL (35.0 pass attempts per game). And while that would still be enough for us to cash this prop via Tannehill, even that middle-of-the-pack ranking is a touch misleading. After all, the Bills’ foes have actually thrown an average of 49 times per game against them in Buffalo’s two road games, which is the highest number in the NFL by a wide margin.

With how dominant Buffalo has been regarding time of possession and how many plays they run themselves, that middling pass attempts against number actually hides the fact that their opponents have thrown the ball on 63.85% of their offensive plays in 2021, the fifth highest chunk in the league. And, correlating nicely with what we just mentioned about Buffalo’s opponents getting pass-happy in Bills road games this season, that percentage jumps to 71.14% away from home, the second highest percentage in football.

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Tannehill only needed 22 and 27 attempts to beat Jacksonville and Indianapolis, the two opponents Tennessee has defeated by more than one score this season. In the other three games, the Titans quarterback thrown 35, 40, and 49 passes, all more than enough to cash this prop in a style of game more similar to what we expect here.

Tannehill only topped this pass attempt number twice at home last season. However, he attempted over 40 throws in both of those games and both outings came against the only two opponents that scored at least 35 points against the Titans here in Nashville, a number Buffalo has reached in each of its last four games, all victories. Be ready to see a lot of Tannehill dropping back to pass.

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