The Top Colts vs. Ravens Player Props Picks for MNF

10/11/2021

colts ravens player props picks — PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

This game may lack a touch of the brimming excitement it promised when the 2021 schedule was released, projecting Carson Wentz and a stacked Indy team to face off against Lamar Jackson and his loaded backfield. Wentz and Indy have struggled to a 1-3 start, while Jackson lost his entire preseason stable of backs, but has still willed the Ravens to a 3-1 record. Yet, this primetime meeting will go a long way to deciding the trajectory of each team’s season.

Let’s jump into this Monday Night Football showdown with a look at the best Colts vs. Ravens player props picks.

The Top Colts vs. Ravens Player Props Picks

Mo-Alie Cox to Score a Touchdown – Yes

There is sneaky good value on Mo Alie-Cox to find his way into the endzone here. Indianapolis is only averaging 20.8 points per game and enter play 1-3 with a quarterback who is banged up and not delivering on expectations thus far. The Colts are also without T.Y. Hilton on the outside, which has certainly hampered their offense, and still list Jack Doyle (10 receptions, 119 yards) as their starting tight end.

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However, all of this creates value on Alie-Cox, who flies completely under the radar. Doyle has caught four more balls than Alie-Cox this season for 45 more yards, but there is more to the story than just those numbers. Doyle’s targets and catches have drastically declined over the last two weeks.

Conversely, Alie-Cox’s usage has increased as the season has progressed from a single catch on four targets through the first two games to five catches on seven targets over the last two outings, including two touchdown receptions in last week’s win over Miami.

Carson Wentz finds Mo Alie-Cox for SIX! #ForTheShoe

?: #INDvsMIA on CBS
?: NFL app pic.twitter.com/7mByATIf5n

— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2021

Alie-Cox reeled in two touchdowns last week, and there’s no reason not to go back to the well again here. Moreover, this could be a favorable matchup. After all, despite owning the 11th best scoring defense in the league, the Ravens have proven vulnerable in the red zone against tight ends.

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Baltimore has allowed a touchdown to a tight end in three games this season, as Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and Noah Fant all found paydirt. And, while no one will confuse Alie-Cox for any of those guys, those touchdowns — and the 30 catches Baltimore has allowed to tight ends already this season — certainly build a strong case against the Ravens’ ability to effectively guard the tight end position.

Alie-Cox is the more athletic of the Colts’ tight ends as well, and should find some room to work as the Colts get close to the endzone. We believe he will cross the line at least once here for a big payday on this prop.

Carson Wentz Under 237.5 Combined Passing and Rushing Yards

The Ravens started their season against the Raiders and Chiefs, second and fifth in the league in passing yards, with both games played in primetime and both with totals set over 50. Given the way Derek Carr and Patrick Mahomes started 2021, it shouldn’t be mind-blowing to look back and see that they had huge passing games against Baltimore. However, the next two weeks saw the Ravens draw Detroit and Denver, two teams in the bottom half of the league in passing and, lo and behold, neither opponent’s quarterbacks topped 217 passing yards, let alone came close to this prop’s number.

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We chose the combined yardage prop here because Wentz is still dinged up in both ankles and is unlikely to collect the 13 yards on the ground that this prop affords us over his prop for just passing yards (224.5 yards). After all, consider that no starting quarterback has rushed for more than six yards against Baltimore this season. Denver’s quarterbacks combined for just two rushing yards, Jared Goff rushed for just four, Mahomes for three, and Carr for six.

Dolphins’ DE Ogbah with the sack against Carson Wentz on 3rd Down pic.twitter.com/DZcOLCf9oo

— Main Team (@MainTeamSports) October 3, 2021

Wentz threw for 251 yards against Seattle in Week 1, but at the time we did not realize that the Seahawks were going to shape up to be one of the league’s worst pass defenses. Since then, Wentz threw for 247 against the Rams, who are ninth worst against the pass, 194 yards against the Titans, 10th worst against the pass, and 228 yards in their win over Miami, the NFL’s 17th best pass defense.

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It’s hard to imagine that Wentz will have greater success against Baltimore with the Colts playing their third straight road game and Wentz failing to top this prop’s number in either of the previous away trips this season.

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Mark Andrews Longest Reception – Over 21.5 Yards

The Colts have not given up more than five catches to a tight end this season, making Andrews’ total receptions prop bet a dicey one. However, they have allowed a tight end to make a catch longer than this prop’s number in three different games this season. And, frankly, none of those three guys (Mike Gesicki, Geoff Swaim, Will Dissly) have near the talent of Mark Andrews.

Andrews is a proven and reliable receiving option for Lamar Jackson, targeted 25 times already this season. He has also caught five balls in each of the last three games, including one catch of 20 or more yards in each of his last three outings. In fact, he had three such catches in the Detroit game alone.

In 2020, Andrews had at least one catch of 25 or more yards in four of his final five regular season games and had a catch of at least 20 yards in half of the regular season games in which he featured.

Going back further, the Oklahoma product hauled in a 20-yard catch or better in 10 of 15 regular season games in 2019. He did the same in five of his final eight regular season appearances during his rookie campaign in 2018, too.

With Darius Leonard questionable for this one, and surely less than 100 percent if he is able to go, you have to believe Andrews will find some chances up the seam as Jackson buys time with his legs.

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