nets bucks game 6 betting pick
PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

We may not know who will win Game 6 of the Nets-Bucks series, but we can be pretty sure we will not again see a performance quite like the one Kevin Durant put on to lead Brooklyn to a crucial Game 5 win. Durant’s 49 points, 17 rebounds, and 10 assists, while playing every second of the game, was an all-time effort.

Let’s take a deep dive into the different markets with our Nets vs. Bucks Game 6 betting pick, complete with the best odds, prop predictions, and analysis.

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With James Harden essentially a decoy due to the effects of his hamstring injury, Durant was left to shoulder the load alone from a star perspective. He and Jeff Green, who made seven of eight 3-point attempts en route to 27 points, dragged the Nets back into the game and to an eventual 3-2 series lead.

Now, the scene shifts back to Milwaukee Thursday night for Game 6.

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Nets vs. Bucks Game 6 Pick

The Bucks now have to win two straight games to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, but they do have a couple of edges for Thursday’s game. They get to play on their home court where they won Games 2 and 3. They know again will not have to face Kyrie Irving, who remains sidelined with his ankle injury. Accordingly, oddsmakers believe in them enough to have moved an opening line that saw the Bucks favored by 3.5 points all the way up to Milwaukee -6 at the time this article was written.

Game 5’s total got pushed all the way up to 222 before tip-off once Harden was announced as active.

The game finished with exactly that many points, equalling the most points in a game thus far in this series, as Game 1 also landed on 222. Oddsmakers were not fully convinced that the offenses are ready to explode tonight, however, as Game 6’s total currently sits at 220 at most legal sportsbooks.

If that number holds, it would be the lowest total in this series and the lowest the Nets have seen since April 5, a span of 33 games. Milwaukee has played 30 games since seeing a total that low.

Bucks vs. Nets Game 6 Odds (June 17, 2021)

Here is the current line on Nets vs. Bucks Game 6 at DraftKings Sportsbook:

TEAMSPREADMONEYLINETOTAL
CLIPPERS+5 (-110)+165O 224 (-113)
SUNS-5 (-110)-200U 224 (-109)

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Nets vs. Bucks Game 6 Prediction

Anyone who is into fantasy or physics understands the belief that an exorbitant, unnatural output of energy will drain the source beyond its normal limits.

If Durant’s Game 5 performance does not fall under that heading, what type of NBA game does?

Playing every second of a game where the ball, as well as your team’s fate, is constantly in your hands while never being able to let your mind slip for even a millisecond must be a taxing venture. We believe we will see the ramifications of such an effort on some levels this evening.

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Whether it is more time on the bench, tired legs in the second half, lazy fouls due to exhaustion, or just subpar (or even regular human) shooting, KD has to come back to Earth somewhat in this one. And, if he does, a huge advantage goes to the Bucks.

We know the Bucks are great at home, especially at the end of the regular season and in the playoffs. We have seen the Nets’ mediocrity when away from the Barclays Center. So, maybe we believe the Bucks can win this game if Durant is worn down a touch, but what makes us subscribe to the belief that they can cover this increasingly large number?

Betting Trends

For starters, Milwaukee saw 20 of its 26 regular season home wins come by six or more points.

Combine that with eight straight road wins and 19 of 22 wins overall away from home coming by six or more and bettors have a 78.8% chance of a Bucks win coming by the necessary six or more tonight.

Eight of Brooklyn’s 27 losses came by less than six points (29.6%), but just five of its last 22 did so (22.7%). And, knowing how taxing 40+ minutes for Durant after playing the entirety of Game 5 and Harden on a hampered hamstring can be, would you really be surprised to see those two get shut down late in this one if the Bucks grab a sizeable lead, with Steve Nash knowing they have another chance to close things out with Game 7 back in Brooklyn on Saturday?

Nash has already vocalized his displeasure at having to play Harden at all right now and his conscience for his players could easily come into play here tonight in a protective fashion late in a game that seems lost.

Prediction

Remember, despite their Game 5 win, the Nets continue to struggle as a playoff underdog, having failed to cover seven of their last 10 in that role. The Bucks have covered seven of their last nine home games against teams with above .500 road records and should be able to extend their recent 5-2 ATS run on one day of rest tonight.

Our Pick: Milwaukee -5.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook -112)

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