As we gear up for another year of New York Yankees baseball, there are surely those who will have a significant impact on the win column in 2017.
Uncertainty surrounds the 2017 New York Yankees at every angle.Starting with the rotation, no one can put a definitive finger on how the team will pan out this year.
Some perspectives point to New York having the ability to stun the sport and make an unexpected run, while other viewpoints prove that expectations should tamper.
Nonetheless, there are a handful of players that serve as variables on this Yankees’ squad that could have the most meaningful impact on the win column next season.
ESNY breaks down who, if things work out, will carry the Yankees to October or, if things go south, will play a factor in New York missing the postseason for the fourth time in five years.
Greg Bird
When you dig for reasons why the Bombers finished 22nd in runs scored a year ago, the lack of production from the first base position would rise as a striking aspect.
In 2015, Mark Teixeira smacked 31 home runs in 111 games and once he went down with a broken leg, Greg Bird stepped in and hit 11 homers in just 46 games.
Overall, Yankees’ first basemen ranked fourth in major league baseball in home runs (47) while their overall WAR (3.3) sat ninth. Last season, however, the position ranked 24th in home runs (23) and ranked third-to-last in overall WAR (-1.4).
That was primarily caused by no Bird, a shell of Teixeira and trying to replace 31 homers with Dustin Ackley, Chris Parmelee, Rob Refsnyder, Ike Davis and eventually Billy Butler.
That’s grinding.
As Bird looks to come back following surgery on a torn right labrum, a strong return would do tremendous things for an offense that missed his presence a year ago.
This past fall, the 24-year old completed 17 games down at the Arizona Fall League and while his numbers weren’t encouraging, getting at-bats while remaining healthy were more vital than any number.
The rusty Bird slashed .215/.346/.364 with only one home run and four doubles. However, his on-base percentage (.346) and walks (12) caused his organization to believe that although his power and swing may be weak due to time off, but his plate discipline has not disappeared.
In the end, it’s quite simple for Bird’s case. If he returns to his rookie-season form, he could be a potent force in a lineup that already features the sensation of Gary Sanchez and the powerful Aaron Judge.
On the flip side, if Bird’s rust lasts 162 games, New York’s probability of success will take a massive downturn — similar to that of 2016.
Luis Severino
In 2015, when Luis Severino went 5-3 with a 2.89 ERA in 11 starts, his Win Probability Added (+WPA) was 4.95. Last season, when the kid looked like a stud out of the ‘pen (0.39 ERA, 9.6 K/9), his +WPA stood at 1.84.
What does that mean? Simply: if Luis Severino can pan out as a starter and not as a reliever, the Yankees’ likelihood of winning will skyrocket.
Yes, we know. Signs point to how good of a reliever he is.
However, he’s just 22-years old with a fixable issue and are we seriously going to throw this kid in the ‘pen without thinking twice about it?
Thankfully, general manager Brian Cashman and manager Joe Girardi won’t do that and, for their sake, is the right choice as the hunt for Severino’s identity takes center stage.
Either he’ll pick up right where he left off in 2016 and collapse when his fastball isn’t good enough to face major league hitting twice, or he’ll transform into the “future ace” that we all expected last year at this time.
If things don’t workout, the rotation will be even more volatile than it is now but if the latter is accomplished, the Yankees’ rotation could, dare I say, morph into a strength.
Jacoby Ellsbury
We’ve talked about this before, and there is a genuine argument that sides with Jacoby Ellsbury being the biggest X-Factor for the Yankees.
Just take a look at the following graph, which connects Ellsbury’s varying on-base percentage to the Yankees’ wins and losses throughout last season:
Overall, in games New York emerged as victors (77 times with Ellsbury making an appearance), Jacoby slashed .343/.411/.534 and totaled 151 bases.
In 71 losses with him making an appearance, his slash line deteriorated to .179/.239/.205 with a mere 55 total bases.
If Ellsbury encounters positive health and consistency, his presence could reconstruct the Yankees’ offense with a top of the order strength and an influential table-setter for the middle of the order — which already seems much-improved.
It’s really not that complicated for Ellsbury, despite the fact that he’s not living up to the quality of his seven-year, $153-million contract.
Michael Pineda
I’m not going out on a limb by saying Michael Pineda was the difference between playoffs and no playoffs for the Yankees a year ago — and he very well may be in 2017.
Coming off a year in which he showed flashes of dominance, like his Mother’s Day performance against the Orioles, the 2016 version of Pineda made baseball history in terms of inconsistency.
Pineda became one of six players in the history of the sport to strike out more than 200 but manage an ERA over 4.80. He also led qualified AL starters in strikeouts-per-nine innings.
Additionally, the righty maintained a 17% home run rate but walked just 53 batters (3.91 BB/K ratio), helping his FIP (fielding independent pitching) finish at 3.79, over a full run lower than his ERA was and in the top-25 among major league pitchers last year.
Frustrating, ain’t it?
However, with a change in approach, Pineda could even out these two sides of himself and become the perfect No. 2 starter to complement Masahiro Tanaka.
At the end of the day, the rotation’s ability to hold it’s own will be a major challenge for the Yankees to overcome. And if they can, it could determine where the team stands come October 1. Pineda’s production, proficient or inadequate, will particularly influence that record.