New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: Odds, Picks, and Player Props for Winner-Take-All AL Wild Card Game 3

• A winner-take-all Game 3 in the AL Wild Card series pits the historic rivals against each other with a trip to the ALDS on the line.
• The New York Yankees turn to rookie Cam Schlittler to face the Boston Red Sox and their own rookie starter, Connelly Early, in a high-stakes duel of inexperienced arms.
• Despite the Yankees’ status as home favorites, overwhelming betting trends and recent low-scoring affairs point toward a tense, nail-biting contest where runs will be at a premium.

The storied rivalry between the Yankees and Red Sox adds yet another dynamic chapter, as the two clubs face off in a decisive Game 3 of the American League Wild Card series. With the series knotted at one game apiece following razor thin Game 1 and Game 2 margins, it’s a winner-take-all showdown under the bright lights of Yankee Stadium. In a fascinating twist, both teams will hand the ball to rookie pitchers, with New York’s Cam Schlittler set to duel with Boston’s Connelly Early in a matchup defined by immense pressure and unfamiliarity.

Neither player has ever been in a situation like this.

After the Yankees clawed out a tense 4-3 victory in Game 2 to even the series, momentum hangs in the balance. New York will rely on the powerful bat of Aaron Judge and a dominant home-field advantage, while the Red Sox counter with the resilient Trevor Story, who has carried their offense through the first two games.

Yankees vs Red Sox Odds

Bet Type	Boston Red Sox Odds	New York Yankees Odds
Run Line	+1.5 (-159)	-1.5 (+135)
Moneyline	+140	-164
Total Runs	Over 7.5 (-110)	Under 7.5 (-110)

Odds as of October 2nd, 2025 from ESPN Bet.

The odds position the Yankees as solid home favorites, a reflection of their strong play at Yankee Stadium and the perceived matchup advantage their right-handed power hitters have against a rookie left-hander. The moneyline implies a significant edge for the hosts.

Moneyline (vig-free): New York Yankees \~59.9%, Boston Red Sox \~40.1%

Odds Movement & Analysis

The betting market has shown subtle but telling movement since the lines opened. The Yankees’ moneyline has shifted from -159 to -164, indicating that early money is backing the home team to advance. Conversely, the odds on the Yankees to cover the -1.5 run line have become slightly less favorable, moving from +140 to +135, suggesting some skepticism that they will win by multiple runs.

The most significant adjustment has been on the total. After opening at 7.5 with the Over juiced to -120, the line has settled at an even -110 on both sides. This shift suggests respected money has come in on the Under, aligning with powerful trends that have seen both teams play exceptionally low-scoring games recently. The market appears to be weighing the volatility of two rookie starters against the intensity of a playoff elimination game, which often suppresses offense. This movement creates potential value on the Under before the line potentially drops to 7.0.

Injury Reports for AL Wild Card Game 3

New York Yankees

Player Name	Position	Injury	Status	Potential Impact / Comment
Gerrit Cole	P	Elbow	D60	Team ace out for the season; a major blow to the rotation.
Clarke Schmidt	P	Forearm	D60	Another key starter missing, testing the team’s depth.
Jonathan Loáisiga	P	Back	D15	Absence weakens the high-leverage bullpen corps.
Oswaldo Cabrera	IF	Ankle	D60	Versatile defender’s absence limits infield flexibility.
Brent Headrick	P	Forearm	D15	Bullpen depth further challenged.
Jake Cousins	P	Elbow	D60	Reliever lost for the season, impacting middle relief.

Boston Red Sox

Player Name	Position	Injury	Status	Potential Impact / Comment
Triston Casas	IF	Knee	D60	Key power bat missing from the middle of the lineup.
Tanner Houck	P	Flexor	D60	Loss of a key starter significantly impacts rotation stability.
Kutter Crawford	P	Knee	D60	Another starting pitcher lost, forcing reliance on young arms.
Vaughn Grissom	IF	Foot	D60	Solid infield contributor sidelined.
Jordan Hicks	P	Shoulder	D15	Key high-velocity arm missing from the back of the bullpen.
Roman Anthony	OF	Oblique	D10	Young outfielder’s absence hurts lineup depth.

Starting Pitcher Matchups & Batter History

With both starters being rookies with limited MLB experience, there is no direct batter/pitcher history available for this matchup. The analysis must therefore focus on the stylistic clash between the pitchers’ arsenals and the opposing lineups’ strengths.

Yankees Batters vs. Connelly Early (LHP)

The Yankees lineup presents a formidable challenge for a rookie left-hander. Power-hitting righties like Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Ben Rice are poised to take advantage of Yankee Stadium’s famously short right-field porch. Judge, in particular, has posted elite numbers against left-handed pitching throughout his career. Early will need to command his fastball and effectively mix in his changeup to keep the Yankees’ sluggers off balance. Any mistake over the heart of the plate could be costly, making this a trial by fire for the young southpaw.

Red Sox Batters vs. Cam Schlittler (RHP)

Cam Schlittler, a Massachusetts native, faces the team he grew up watching in the biggest start of his life. The right-hander will have to navigate a Boston lineup that, while inconsistent, features dangerous hitters. Trevor Story is seeing the ball exceptionally well, and left-handed bats like Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida excel against right-handed pitching. Schlittler’s success will hinge on his ability to locate his slider and avoid falling behind in counts. If he can manage the adrenaline and execute his pitches, he can give the Yankees a chance, but Boston’s veteran hitters will be looking to exploit any sign of rookie jitters.

Game 3 Batter Props

PLAYER	HITS	TOTAL BASES	HOME RUNS	RBIs	RUNS SCORED
Aaron Judge (NYY)	0.5 (O -236	U +174)	1.5 (O -105	U -128)	+238
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY)	0.5 (O -256	U +190)	1.5 (O +117	U -161)	+500
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY)	0.5 (O -159	U +119)	0.5 (O -177	U +127)	+388
Alex Bregman (BOS)	0.5 (O -208	U +153)	1.5 (O +135	U -184)	+543
Trevor Story (BOS)	0.5 (O -203	U +151)	1.5 (O +130	U -182)	+588
Jarren Duran (BOS)	0.5 (O -195	U +145)	1.5 (O +130	U -182)	+618

MLB batter props as of October 2nd, 2025 from consensus data.

Game 3 Pitcher Props

PITCHER	STRIKEOUTS	EARNED RUNS	WALKS ALLOWED	HITS ALLOWED	INNINGS PITCHED
Cam Schlittler (NYY)	4.5 (O -145	U +108)	1.5 (O +113	U -151)	1.5 (O +157

MLB pitcher props as of October 2nd, 2025 from consensus data. Innings pitched calculated from Pitcher Outs line.

Given the matchup against a rookie left-hander, Judge’s props are particularly intriguing. His total bases line is set at 1.5 with attractive -105 odds on the over, a strong value play for a hitter of his caliber in this situation. For the Red Sox, Trevor Story has been on fire, making his Over 1.5 total bases at +130 a tempting option for those betting on his hot streak to continue.

For Schlittler, the props suggest a very short outing. The line for his total outs is just 11.5 (less than four full innings), indicating the betting market expects a quick hook. With his earned runs line at a low 1.5, the over at +113 holds value against a capable Red Sox lineup in a pressure-packed environment.

Picks & Prediction

This winner-take-all game will be decided by which rookie pitcher can better handle the immense pressure of the moment. Schlittler gets the home-field advantage but faces a Red Sox lineup that has shown resilience. Early has the unenviable task of navigating the Yankees’ right-handed sluggers in a stadium that can feel like a shoebox. Both pitchers will have an extremely short leash, meaning this contest will likely transform into a battle of the bullpens by the middle innings. New York’s relief corps has been solid, but Boston’s has been tested and effective.

Several powerful betting trends support a specific approach to this game. The Yankees are a remarkable 8-1 in their last nine home games and an even more impressive 9-1 in their last 10 games as a favorite. However, the Red Sox have been incredibly resilient, winning their last six straight games following a loss. The most compelling trends point to a low-scoring affair: the Under has cashed in each of the last five Red Sox games and in all of the last four Yankees home games.

In a game this tight, the home-field advantage and the Yankees’ track record in elimination games at home are the deciding factors. While the Red Sox will fight hard, New York’s lineup is better equipped to capitalize on a rookie pitcher’s mistakes. Expect a tense, one-run game where the Under is the strongest play for New York sports betting.

Picks:

• New York Yankees Moneyline (-164)
• Under 7.5 Runs (-110)
• Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-159)

Recent Series Action: Red Sox vs Yankees Tied 1-1

The series has been a hard-fought battle, culminating in a 4-3 victory for the New York Yankees in Game 2 to stave off elimination. The game was a nail-biter that showcased the strengths of both clubs. For the Red Sox, Story was a one-man wrecking crew, driving in all three of Boston’s runs with a home run and a key single. The Yankees countered with timely power, as rookie Ben Rice blasted a crucial two-run homer. Judge continued his strong postseason, collecting two hits in four at-bats. The one-run decision underscored the razor-thin margin between these rivals, setting the stage for a dramatic Game 3.