New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: Odds, Picks, and Player Props for AL Wild Card Game 1

• The New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox in a high-stakes AL Wild Card series opener, renewing one of baseball’s most storied rivalries.
• A compelling pitching matchup features Yankees ace Max Fried against Boston’s hard-throwing Garrett Crochet, who dominated the Yankees in his last start.
• The Yankees enter the postseason on a hot streak, winning nine of their last ten games, and are heavily favored at home against a Red Sox team dealing with significant pitching injuries.

One of baseball’s most iconic rivalries takes center stage in the postseason as the Yankees prepare to host the Red Sox for Game 1 of the American League Wild Card series. The Yankees will send their ace, Max Fried, to the mound to set the tone at home. Fried will look to neutralize a potent Red Sox lineup that has shown flashes of explosive offense down the stretch.

Across the diamond, the Red Sox counter with a formidable left-hander Crochet. In a late-season preview of this matchup, Crochet mowed down the Yankees lineup, racking up 12 strikeouts in a dominant performance. Boston will be counting on a repeat of that clutch hitting and another ace performance from Crochet to steal home-field advantage.

Yankees vs Red Sox Odds

Bet Type	Red Sox	Yankees
Run Line	+1.5 (-200)	-1.5 (+165)
Moneyline	+115	-135
Total Runs	Over 6.5 (-145)	Under 6.5 (+120)

Odds as of September 30th, 2025 from ESPN Bet

The odds position the Yankees as moderate favorites, a line heavily influenced by their stellar play down the stretch and home-field advantage. The moneyline suggests oddsmakers are giving the Yankees a solid edge, but the +115 on the Red Sox indicates respect for their ability to pull off an upset, especially with Crochet on the mound. The low total of 6.5 runs pays tribute to the quality of both starting pitchers, though the juice is heavily skewed toward the Over.

Moneyline (vig-free): New York Yankees \~55.3%, Boston Red Sox \~44.7%

Odds Movement & Analysis

The betting market has shown subtle but telling movement leading up to this playoff opener. The moneyline opened with the Yankees at -130 and has ticked up to -135, signaling steady but not overwhelming support for the home team. This slight shift reflects the Yankees’ incredible form, having won nine of their last ten games.

The most dramatic movement has occurred on the total. The line opened at 6.5 runs with the Over at +110, but has since been hammered by bettors, shifting the odds to a prohibitive -145. This significant adjustment suggests the market believes the potent offenses and the hitter-friendly conditions of Yankee Stadium—particularly the short right-field porch for Boston’s left-handed bats—will overcome the two talented starting pitchers. The extensive injury list for the Red Sox bullpen, which includes key arms like Jordan Hicks and Tanner Houck, is likely a primary driver of this movement, as bettors anticipate the Yankees will be able to score runs late in the game.

Injury Reports

New York Yankees

Player Name	Position	Injury	Status	Potential Impact / Comment
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	IF	Forearm	Day-to-Day	A key left-handed bat and versatile defender, his potential absence or limitation would be a significant blow to the lineup’s depth.
Gerrit Cole	P	Elbow	D60	Team’s ace is out for the season, a long-term loss that impacts the overall rotation depth.
Clarke Schmidt	P	Forearm	D60	Another starting pitcher lost for the season, testing the team’s pitching depth.
Jonathan Loáisiga	P	Back	D15	Absence weakens the high-leverage options in the Yankees’ bullpen.
Oswaldo Cabrera	IF	Ankle	D60	Loss of a valuable utility player who provides defensive flexibility.
Jake Cousins	P	Elbow	D60	Bullpen arm out for the season, affecting middle-relief depth.
Brent Headrick	P	Forearm	D15	Lefty reliever’s absence limits matchup options out of the bullpen.

Boston Red Sox

Player Name	Position	Injury	Status	Potential Impact / Comment
Triston Casas	IF	Knee	D60	Major loss of a middle-of-the-order power bat. Out for the season.
Jordan Hicks	P	Shoulder	D15	Elite high-leverage reliever is unavailable, creating a major hole in the back end of the bullpen.
Tanner Houck	P	Flexor	D60	Versatile starter/reliever is out for the season after surgery, a huge blow to pitching staff flexibility.
Vaughn Grissom	IF	Foot	D60	Starting second baseman is out, impacting infield defense and lineup consistency.
Roman Anthony	OF	Oblique	D10	Promising young outfielder’s absence thins the outfield depth.
Josh Winckowski	P	Elbow	D60	Key multi-inning reliever is out, further straining a depleted bullpen.
Brennan Bernardino	P	Lat	D15	Situational lefty is unavailable, limiting matchup options against the Yankees’ left-handed hitters.
Dustin May	P	Elbow	D15	A significant arm for the rotation/bullpen is sidelined.

Starting Pitcher Matchups & Batter History

Boston Red Sox Career Statistics vs. Max Fried

Last 10 years | Games analyzed: 3 | Total at-bats: 53

BATTER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Connor Wong	8	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	.375	.375	.500	.875
Romy González	7	2	0	1	0	0	2	3	.286	.444	.571	1.016
Ceddanne Rafaela	7	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	.286	.286	.286	.571
Trevor Story	7	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	.143	.143	.143	.286
Alex Bregman	6	4	0	0	1	0	0	1	.667	.667	1.167	1.833
Jarren Duran	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	.000	.000	.000
TOTALS	53	17	1	1	1	0	5	15	.321	.379	.434	.813

New York Yankees Career Statistics vs. Garrett Crochet

Last 5 years | Games analyzed: 4 | Total at-bats: 78

BATTER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Paul Goldschmidt	12	2	0	0	0	0	1	3	.167	.231	.167	.397
Cody Bellinger	11	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	.273	.273	.273	.545
Aaron Judge	11	2	0	0	2	0	0	8	.182	.182	.727	.909
Austin Wells	8	2	1	0	1	0	0	3	.250	.250	.750	1.000
Giancarlo Stanton	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	3	.400	.400	1.000	1.400
Anthony Volpe	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	.500	.500	.500	1.000
TOTALS	78	17	2	0	5	0	2	28	.218	.237	.436	.673

Batter Props

PLAYER	HITS	TOTAL BASES	HOME RUNS	RBIs	RUNS SCORED
Aaron Judge (NYY)	0.5 (O -214 | U +155)	1.5 (O +107 | U -146)	0.5 (O +224 | U N/A)	0.5 (O +147 | U -202)	0.5 (O -123 | U -110)
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY)	0.5 (O -211 | U +155)	1.5 (O +131 | U -179)	0.5 (O +503 | U N/A)	0.5 (O +227 | U -325)	0.5 (O +111 | U -152)
Alex Bregman (BOS)	0.5 (O -215 | U +157)	1.5 (O +135 | U -186)	0.5 (O +571 | U N/A)	0.5 (O +221 | U -325)	0.5 (O +134 | U -187)
Trevor Story (BOS)	0.5 (O -204 | U +152)	1.5 (O +148 | U -203)	0.5 (O +547 | U N/A)	0.5 (O +209 | U -294)	0.5 (O +156 | U -218)

MLB batter props as of September 30th, 2025 from consensus data.

Pitcher Props

PITCHER	STRIKEOUTS	EARNED RUNS	WALKS ALLOWED	HITS ALLOWED	INNINGS PITCHED
Max Fried (NYY)	5.5 (O -145 | U +111)	1.5 (O -139 | U +103)	1.5 (O -106 | U -126)	4.5 (O -137 | U +101)	17.5 Outs (O -145 | U +112)
Garrett Crochet (BOS)	7.5 (O -119 | U -109)	2.5 (O +131 | U -182)	1.5 (O -117 | U -115)	4.5 (O -128 | U -106)	17.5 Outs (O -143 | U +105)

MLB pitcher props as of September 30th, 2025 from consensus data.

There’s intriguing value on the pitcher props board. Crochet’s strikeout line is set at a high 7.5, but it’s a number he’s capable of hitting. He punched out 12 Yankees in his last outing against them and has historically fanned Aaron Judge in 8 of 11 at-bats. The Yankees’ power-heavy lineup is prone to strikeouts, making the Over (-119) an appealing play. For Max Fried, the Earned Runs line at 1.5 is very tight. While he’s an ace, the Red Sox have had success against him, with Alex Bregman boasting a 1.833 OPS in their matchups. The Over on his earned runs (-139) is worth consideration.

For hitters, Judge’s home run prop at +224 is always in play at Yankee Stadium. He’s homered twice off Crochet in just 11 at-bats and enters the playoffs swinging a hot bat.

Yankees vs Red Sox Picks & Prediction

This AL Wild Card opener presents a classic clash of a red-hot home team against a resilient but banged-up rival. The clear edge in this matchup goes to the Yankees, driven by their dominant recent form, home-field advantage, and the opponent’s decimated pitching staff. The Yankees have been nearly unbeatable at home, winning their last seven games in the Bronx and going 9-1 in their last ten contests overall.

The starting pitching matchup, while seemingly elite on paper, favors New York. Max Fried has been a steady ace, and while some Red Sox hitters like Alex Bregman have had success against him, he has effectively shut down others like Jarren Duran. On the other side, Garrett Crochet is a strikeout artist, but the Yankees have tagged him for five home runs in just 78 career at-bats. More importantly, the game will likely be decided by the bullpens, where Boston is at a severe disadvantage. The Red Sox are missing multiple high-leverage arms, including Hicks and Houck, which will make navigating the late innings against a powerful Yankees lineup a monumental task.

When looking at this game on NY sports betting apps, several betting trends support a Yankees victory. New York has won seven straight games as a home favorite and is 3-1 in their last four games against opponents with a winning record. While the total of 6.5 is low, the trend of the Over hitting in 11 of Boston’s last 15 road games against winning teams, combined with their bullpen woes, makes the Over a strong play despite the heavy juice. The best value lies with the Yankees on the run line, as they have the offensive firepower to exploit Boston’s depleted pitching staff and secure a multi-run victory to open the series.

Picks:

• New York Yankees Moneyline (-135)
• New York Yankees -1.5 (+165)
• Over 6.5 Runs (-145)

Agree with these picks? Tail me with a DraftKings promo code.

Recent Head-to-Head Action: A Look Back at the Final Regular Season Clash

While this is the first game of the postseason, the final series of the regular season between these two teams offered a dramatic preview. The Yankees took two of three games at Yankee Stadium in mid-September, setting a contentious tone for this Wild Card showdown.

On September 12th, the Yankees secured a 4-1 victory in a game highlighted by Judge’s historic 362nd career home run, passing Joe DiMaggio on the franchise’s all-time list. Pitcher Luis Gil was magnificent, carrying a no-hitter into the seventh inning and stifling the Red Sox bats.

The Red Sox stormed back in the final game of that series, ambushing the Yankees with a six-run first inning en route to a 6-4 win. The offensive explosion was capped by a Carlos Narváez home run. Most notably for this upcoming matchup, starter Crochet was electric, striking out 12 Yankees batters and shutting them down after the early run support. This recent history demonstrates both the Yankees’ overall dominance and the Red Sox’s ability to explode offensively, with Crochet proving he can single-handedly neutralize New York’s potent lineup.