No, 3B Munetaka Murakami is not coming to New York

ESPN’s Jeff Passan made the inevitable news official today when he announced the Yakult Swallows of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) would post 25-year-old third baseman Munetaka Murakami.

There’s no doubt that Murakami is about to land himself quite the paycheck. He’s a .273 lifetime hitter with 265 home runs in eight seasons. Murakami also holds the single-season record for most home runs by a Japanese player, with 56 in 2022. Plenty of major league teams will line up for a chance to offer him a lucrative contract, plus an even more lucrative posting fee to Yakult.

And before any of us get excited, don’t expect the New York Yankees nor the New York Mets to sign him. For both baseball and money reasons.

On the Yankees’ side, Ryan McMahon was a Gold Glove finalist at the hot corner and has two years, $32 million left on his contract. The Mets, meanwhile, likely have to decide which of Brett Baty or Mark Vientos gets traded for pitching help.

That probably leaves the Cubs, Mariners, and, no surprises here, the Dodgers as the top contenders. Nobody wants to hear it, but the Dodgers are the favorites. Max Muncy’s free agency leaves a void at third base, and the team practically prints its own money.

However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves and think that the Yankees or Mets are seriously missing out on Munetaka Murakami. The stats are there, but any team who signs him is taking a big, big risk.

Despite his ability to draw triple-digit walks and strikeouts, it’s much more likely Murakami turns out more Joey Gallo than he does Juan Soto.

It’s not that Munetaka Murakami is a bad hitter. Far from it. NPB is a professional league that, despite key differences between it and MLB, isn’t just some Quadruple-A operation. Japan is the reigning World Baseball Classic champion for a reason. A baseball country that turns out excellent baseball players.

It’s more that baseball is played so differently in Japan that most of its hitters have struggled making the switch to MLB. While NPB doesn’t mind pitchers whose velocity tops out in the low 90s, MLB milks arms for velocity to an absolute fault. It’s all heavy fastball all the time as opposed to just a small handful in Japan who might throw gas.

Thus, while Boston Red Sox outfielder/DH Masataka Yoshida was a .326 lifetime hitter in Japan, he’s only hit .282 in three MLB seasons and a lightly above-average 109 wRC+. He is playing on a five-year, $90 million contract.

Meanwhile, Murakami is only a .273 lifetime hitter in Japan. That isn’t to say he’ll bust. It’s more that fans need to temper their expectations.

Something that both Yankees and Mets fans seem wholly incapable of doing. Munetaka Murakami playing third base on either team would go over like opening a Papa John’s on Mulberry Street. They’d expect excellent quality and get something else.

You think Yankees fans were hard on Joey Gallo? At least he was a pending expiring contract when the Yankees traded for him in 2023. Murakami would require a multi-year investment. And probably for at least $125 million.

And on the Mets’ side? For the millionth, quadrillionth, umpteenth time. The Mets. Don’t. Need. More. Hitters. Pitching should be at the top of their list, especially with either Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, or Clay Holmes looking like next year’s Opening Day starter.

Munetaka Murakami is coming to Major League Baseball and, ideally, will hit between .240 and .270 with 20 or so home runs as a “rookie.”

But if anyone expects him to be some weird hybrid of Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui? Redirect your energy into buying the Brooklyn Bridge. It’ll be easier. Promise.