Yankees-Astros is just another anticlimactic rivalry series

We recently discussed how the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry doesn’t carry as much weight with Boston currently sitting in last place, even more after a three-game sweep by the Bronx Bombers. Now, New York heads south to Houston for a weekend at Daikin Park against the not-so-mighty Houston Astros. They’re a -149 moneyline favorite for game 1 at New York sports betting apps.

Houston, whose sudden rise in the AL and three World Series titles in the last ten years labeled them Yankee killers, currently sit last in the AL West.

That’s right, folks. Gone are the days when visiting Houston was tinged with dread. No more hoping to steal or luck into just one win. Forget being fed to a seemingly ageless Justin Verlander. These are not the Houston Astros of old, cheating scandal or not.

In fact, the Yankees are 6-1 in Houston over the last two years. What’s more, the stage is set for them to keep up that trend this weekend. The once-feared Astros pitching staff, riddled with injuries like the rest of the roster, have the following arms slated to start this weekend: Lance McCullers Jr., Mike Burrows, and Spencer Arrighetti.

McCullers, who famously shut down the Yankees through multiple relief innings in Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS, is a shell of himself. He’s thrown 123.1 innings over the course of a five-year, $85 million deal. He didn’t pitch at all in 2023 and ’24, owns a 6.42 ERA since returning, and doesn’t look great under the hood either.

Burrows, meanwhile, is a former Pirates prospect who wound up in Houston as part of the three-team Brandon Lowe trade. He’s mediocre at best, and Arrighetti is overachieving hard despite winning his first two starts. His 2.45 ERA is undercut by 5.05 xERA, 3.79 FIP, and 5.18 xFIP.

Meanwhile, two key arms in Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier are down with shoulder injuries. And with no return dates in sight, either.

And what about the once-deadly Houston lineup? Yordan Alvarez is the AL Triple Crown leader, but that’s about it. Three-time batting champ Jose Altuve has gone from elite to above average and is also a net negative in the field. Carlos Correa is declining fast. The team’s outfield is basically patchwork.

Certainly not what one would expect from a team that won the World Series five years ago. Back when Justin Verlander shocked the world with an eye-popping Cy Young season at age 39. And one year after Tommy John surgery too.

This is where, in a way, it all went downhill. Verlander left for the Mets in free agency that winter, only to be reacquired by Houston at the trade deadline for a playoff push. Houston lost in Game 7 of the ALCS to the eventual champion Texas Rangers, and Verlander was barely a factor. He spent one more injury-plagued year in Houston before spending last year with the Giants. He’s currently back with the Tigers and on the injured list.

This forced the Astros to make do with an average farm system. The only thing that kept them from crashing out earlier is their pitching development. Cheating or not, this is a team that has always turned out good pitching.

But not even that can save the Astros now. The rest of the division caught up with them, even the lowly Athletics. Even the directionless Angels have the privilege of Mike Trout being an all-time great.

So what does all of this mean for the weekend Yankees series? Yes, that’s right. We’re circling all the way back to a weekend series that should be exciting. Between the cheating scandals and Houston beating the Yankees three times in the ALCS? These teams do not like each other.

Such is the nature of rivalries in any sport. They’re only as good as the teams they put out. Look how one-sided Yankees-Red Sox just was. Boston matched Cam Schlittler’s velocity yesterday with their own fireballer Payton Tolle, who struck out 11 Yankees over six innings of one-run ball.

And yet, it was as though everyone knew the Yankees had the game once the bullpen took over. Cue some walks, a bloop single, and a dash of Cody Bellinger in the clutch? Yankees sweep the Sawx.

Not to say the Yankees will sweep Houston too. They’ve won six straight and Daikin isn’t Fenway. It’s loud with the roof closed. Plus the Yankee lineup’s inconvenient knack for falling asleep against sub-average pitching.

But on the whole? This is New York’s series to lose. And all the Astros can do is try and get through it as painlessly as possible.