A friendly reminder that Luis Gil is a future reliever

We’ve heard it all about Luis Gil. The strikeouts. Winning AL Rookie of the Year as a starter in 2024. He can eat innings when he’s healthy. How do we know last year wasn’t a fluke because of his shoulder trouble?

Those are all valid. Luis Gil debuted as a starter, turned heads as a starter. If he stays healthy, he can probably handle the workload required of a starter. After all, he tossed 151.2 innings in his Rookie of the Year campaign.

But let’s be real. His future is in the Yankee bullpen. He’s a fastball-slider dominant pitcher who sometimes throws a changeup in a learn-as-you-go kind of manner, and he’s trying the same with a sinker this season. Add the high walks—Gil also led the majors with 77 of them in his ROTY campaign—and high strikeouts, and that’s your classic high-leverage arm.

And even then, Gil would still have to make adjustments. His average fastball velocity was in the 88th percentile two years ago. It dipped to the 66th in his injury-shortened 2025 and currently sits in the 64th through two starts.

His whiff rate (Whiff%) was in the 77th percentile in ’24. It currently sits in the 45th and capped at the 20th last year.

Could it be that Gil, who had Tommy John surgery in 2022, is already experiencing a tired arm?

Whatever the case, the pitching calculus doesn’t work in his favor once Carlos Rodon makes his expected return in a few weeks. Look under the hood, and Gil’s 7.00 ERA through two starts is paired with an ugly expected ERA (xERA) of 6.49. If you want uglier, his FIP is 9.80 with an xFIP of 5.30. While we’re at on the subject, both Gil’s FIP and xFIP were above 4 in his ROTY season.

Now, compare that with lefty Ryan Weathers, who’ll likely join Gil in the ‘pen once ace Gerrit Cole returns in June. Weathers, who throws four pitches, has a 4.29 ERA and 5.83 xERA, but those numbers are inflated. Giving up four home runs in Tuesday’s 7-1 loss will do that. Having a .353 BABIP doesn’t help either.

Weathers’ FIP and xFIP, meanwhile, are 3.97 and 2.81. The big lefty projects confidence on the mound and, for all we know, could stick in the rotation if Will Warren’s inability to pitch deep into games continues. Warren has pitched into the sixth inning in just one of four starts this season and averaged less than five innings in 33 starts last season. Oh, and those 33 starts led the American League.

But back to Luis Gil. Even if he’s dominant and racks up the strikeouts over the next 2-3 weeks, he’s getting demoted. One of Warren or Weathers would need to look significantly worse to lose their spot to Rodon.

And with Gil looking the worst under the hood? Get him in the Gas Station with bullpen coach Preston Claiborne to become a star in a new role.