The risk and reward of playoff Luis Gil

Manager Aaron Boone made it official yesterday: the New York Yankees will start righty Luis Gil in Game 1 of the American League Division Series versus Toronto.

This after Gil was left off the Wild Card roster and missed the first four months of the season with shoulder trouble. His issues with walks, as we recently discussed, have not dissipated and it might be time to move him to the bullpen for good. Such is the risk with a high-velocity pitcher who racks up strikeouts. Without reliable secondary pitches, control will be an issue.

However, this situation is unique. The Yankees enter Toronto as the underdog, the Wild Card team that had to play its way in despite both teams finishing 94-68 on the year. The Blue Jays earned the bye through the tiebreaker. As in, ace Max Fried can’t start Game 1 unless he’s on short rest. Not the best idea in the opener of a best-of-five!

But even then, why Gil? He’s your garden variety fireballing strikeout pitcher: fastball, slider, changeup. Why put him on the mound against a Blue Jays team that posted the lowest strikeout rate (K%) in baseball at 17.8%? Surely, a more diverse pitch like Will Warren’s would be better?

On paper? Sure. Warren’s sweeper paired with his fastball and sinker, plus a developing changeup, are a great mix. Even through growing pains in 2025, Warren’s potential is clear.

Of course, therein lies the problem. Warren’s sweeper is great when it’s on, but he’s still very much learning how to pitch in general. Opposing hitters batted .336 against the sweeper compared to .216 against his fastball.

And speaking of Warren’s fastball, he’s still working on that too despite it posting a +17 run value this season. That’s in the 95th percentile among pitchers! However, Warren also issued 3.6 BB/9 on the season, largely because he sometimes had issues with fastball command. More often than not, he pitches to the corners instead of just being aggressive.

Not to mention, Will Warren was far worse on the road than at Yankee Stadium, a 5.52 ERA compared to 3.30 at home. He faced the Jays once this season, issuing eight runs on ten hits in four innings.

Gil isn’t exactly great against Toronto either, 1-1 with a 4.34 ERA in four career starts, but we know why: 22 walks in 18.2 innings spread across the four. That just happens with fastball-slider arms. When the whiffs aren’t high, the walks usually are. We’ve seen that with Gil this year, his BB/9 at 5.21 while his K/9 have dipped to nearly 6.5 from 10.15 last season.

And even then, Luis Gil is frustratingly the better option than Will Warren. Not just because of Warren’s risks, but because Gil’s year of playoff experience last season also matters. He didn’t register a decision in either of his starts and pitched to a 6.75 ERA, which isn’t great. However, we can’t hold it against Gil. He only pitched eight innings in two playoff starts, and was a rookie at that. There’s every chance he could come back more confident this season.

Most important of all, the Yankees are starting Luis Gil in Game 1 because he’s aggressive, same as the Blue Jays’ lineup. His small pitch mix mean he isn’t one to get cute with the strike zone and steal calls left and right. If his fastball is blazing and his slider biting? Expect Gil to throw the Blue Jays his best and hardest stuff and dare them to do something with it.

Game 1 is slated for 4:08 pm ET on Fox on Saturday, so we’ll soon see what happens when Gil toes the slab. Toronto will counter with ace Kevin Gausman.