Jets at Buccaneers: Week 3 Odds, Picks, and Player Props as Tyrod Taylor Steps in for Justin Fields
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 2-0 to start the season and look to improve to 3-0 for the first time in more than two decades against the winless New York Jets.
- Oddsmakers have Tampa installed as a 6.5-point home favorite, with the total dropping from 45.5 to 43.5, signaling an expected low-scoring affair.
- With the Jets’ offense struggling mightily, our analysis points to strong value on the Buccaneers to cover the spread and a key Mike Evans player prop.
The Bucs are riding high after a 2-0 start, showcasing an efficient, mistake-free brand of football led by underrated quarterback Baker Mayfield. Through two games, Mayfield has been surgical, tossing five touchdowns with zero interceptions and posting a 98.6 passer rating. He’s guided an offense that, while not explosive, has been clinical in crucial moments, putting the Buccaneers in position to start 3-0 for the first time since 2005.
Standing in their way are the winless New York Jets, who enter Week 3 in a state of desperation. After an 0-2 start, the offense has looked disjointed and ineffective, averaging just 274 yards per game. Veteran quarterback Tyrod Taylor is inheriting a struggling unit against a disciplined Todd Bowles defense. The pressure is mounting in New York, as a loss on Sunday would bury them in an 0-3 hole that is historically difficult to escape.
Odds
| Bet Type | New York Jets | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +6.5 (-106) | -6.5 (-114) |
| Moneyline | +256 | -323 |
| Total Points | Over 43.5 (-110) | Under 43.5 (-109) |
Odds as of September 19th, 2025 from consensus legal sportsbooks
The odds paint a clear picture, with the Buccaneers as heavy home favorites. The moneyline of -323 gives the Buccaneers a 73.1% implied win probability once the vig is removed. The Jets’ +256 odds translate to a 26.9% chance of pulling off the upset.
Moneyline (vig-free): Tampa Bay Buccaneers \~73.1%, New York Jets \~26.9%
The Buccaneers have been a strong bet this season, starting 2-0 against the spread. Conversely, the Jets have been a nightmare for bettors, posting a dismal 1-10 ATS record against teams with a winning record in their last 11 tries and losing their last eight games outright as an underdog.
Odds Movement & Analysis
The betting lines for this matchup have seen significant movement, particularly on the spread and total. The former opened with the Buccaneers as 7.5-point favorites but has since been bet down to -6.5. This one-point shift suggests that while the public may be backing the undefeated Buccaneers, sharp money likely saw value in taking the Jets with more than a touchdown cushion.
More telling is the movement on the game total, which opened at 45.5 and plummeted to 43.5. This two-point drop is a strong indicator that professional bettors are anticipating a low-scoring game. The primary drivers are the Jets’ anemic offense, which has struggled to sustain drives, and the Buccaneers’ methodical, ball-control style. The combination of Tampa Bay’s disciplined defense and New York’s offensive woes points directly toward the under.
Injury Report
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status | Fantasy/Betting Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Wirfs | T | Ankle | Questionable | Potential downgrade for Bucs’ pass protection against a tough Jets defensive line. |
| Chris Godwin | WR | Groin | Questionable | If limited or out, Mike Evans would see an even larger target share. |
| Quinnen Williams | DT | Shoulder | Probable | A key player for the Jets’ defense. His presence is crucial for disrupting the Bucs’ offense. |
Injury statuses are subject to change before kickoff.
Key Matchups to Watch
Quarterback vs Pass Defense
Mayfield has revitalized his career by playing smart, efficient football, boasting a 5-to-0 TD-to-INT ratio and a 98.6 rating. He faces a Jets defense that can generate pressure (5 sacks) but has been vulnerable on the back end, allowing a 110.6 opposing QB rating. For the Jets, Taylor steps into a difficult situation. The Buccaneers’ defense, coordinated by Bowles, is known for its complex schemes and ability to force turnovers. Tampa Bay hasn’t recorded an interception yet, but they are holding opposing passers to a 60% completion rate.
Running Game vs Run Defense
The ground game features a strength-on-strength matchup when the Jets have the ball. Breece Hall is a dynamic back averaging 4.7 yards per carry, but he’s running into a brick wall in the Buccaneers’ run defense, which is allowing a paltry 76.5 yards per game. On the other side, the Buccaneers’ rushing attack has been serviceable (135 yards/game), but they’ll face a Jets front allowing 138.5 yards per contest. The key will be whether Tampa Bay can establish the run enough to keep the Jets’ pass rush honest.
Pass Catchers vs Secondary
This is where the Buccaneers have a distinct advantage. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin form one of the league’s top receiving duos. While Sauce Gardner will likely shadow Evans, Godwin should find favorable matchups in the slot. For the Jets, Garrett Wilson is the undisputed top target, but he’ll face a physical challenge from Carlton Davis and a Buccaneers secondary that excels at limiting big plays. Beyond Wilson, the Jets lack consistent threats in the passing game.
Offensive Line vs Pass Rush
The trenches could decide this game. The Jets’ offensive line has been a major liability, and they’ll have their hands full with a Buccaneers front that has racked up 10 QB hits in two games. The more intriguing battle is the Jets’ ferocious defensive line, led by Quinnen Williams, against a solid Buccaneers offensive line. If Tampa Bay can give Mayfield a clean pocket, he will pick apart the Jets’ secondary. If not, Williams and company could make it a long day for the home team.
Passing Props
| PLAYER | PASSING YARDS | PASSING TDs | COMPLETIONS | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | 237.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 1.5 (O -161 | U +122) | 20.5 (O -126 | U -105) | 0.5 (O -130 | U -102) |
| Tyrod Taylor (NYJ) | 195.5 (O -108 | U -125) | 0.5 (O -223 | U +165) | 17.5 (O -111 | U -119) | 0.5 (O +101 | U -136) |
Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 237.5, a number he has yet to reach this season. However, the Jets’ secondary has been susceptible to giving up yards, making the over a possibility if the game script calls for more passing. Taylor’s line of 195.5 yards reflects the low expectations for the Jets’ passing game against a tough Buccaneers defense. The under seems like the logical play here, given the Jets’ offensive struggles.
Rushing & Receiving Props
| PLAYER | RUSHING YARDS | RECEIVING YARDS | RECEPTIONS | ANYTIME TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 58.5 (O -114 | U -115) | 23.5 (O -114 | U -112) | 3.5 (O +120 | U -157) | Yes +115 | No -150 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | N/A | 64.5 (O -114 | U -114) | 5.5 (O -132 | U +100) | Yes +202 | No -275 |
| Bucky Irving (TB) | 70.5 (O -114 | U -115) | 17.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 3.5 (O +120 | U -154) | Yes -127 | No +100 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | N/A | 71.5 (O -118 | U -115) | N/A | Yes +105 | No -135 |
NFL player props as of September 19th, 2025 from consensus lines.
Evans’ anytime touchdown prop at +105 offers excellent value. He’s Mayfield’s go-to target in the red zone and has a significant size advantage over most of the Jets’ defensive backs. For the Jets, Breece Hall’s rushing prop of 58.5 yards is a tough call. While talented, he faces a stout run defense and a likely negative game script that could limit his opportunities. Garrett Wilson’s reception prop of 5.5 is heavily juiced to the over, as he is the clear focal point of the Jets’ passing attack.
Picks & Prediction
This matchup features two teams on completely opposite trajectories. The Buccaneers are playing with confidence and discipline, while the New York Jets appear lost on offense and are struggling to keep games competitive. The quarterback disparity is stark; Mayfield is protecting the football and making clutch throws, whereas the Jets’ offense under Taylor is unlikely to find much success against Bowles’ defensive schemes.
The Bucs’ key to victory is simple: continue their mistake-free approach on offense and force the Jets into predictable passing situations. Tampa Bay’s defense should be able to contain Hall and the Jets’ rushing attack, putting the game on Taylor’s shoulders. On the other side, the Jets’ only hope is for their dominant defensive line, led by Williams, to overwhelm the Buccaneers’ offensive line and create chaos for Mayfield.
However, the betting trends are overwhelmingly in favor of Tampa. The Jets have been abysmal against winning teams, going 1-10 ATS in their last 11 such games. Furthermore, they’ve lost their last eight games outright as an underdog. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is 8-2 in their last 10 games and has covered the spread in both of their contests this season. While the 6.5-point spread is significant, the Jets have shown no ability to keep pace with competent opponents. The sharp money driving the total down to 43.5 also tells a story: expect a grind-it-out game where the Jets struggle to score more than 14-17 points, making it difficult for them to cover.
picks:
- Against the Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (-114)
- Over/Under: Under 43.5 (-109)
- Player Prop: Mike Evans Anytime TD Scorer (+105)
Public Betting Splits
Public sentiment is heavily favoring the home team in this matchup. Approximately 80% of betting tickets and 70% of the money wagered on the spread are on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover the -6.5 points. This indicates that the majority of recreational bettors are backing the undefeated team against the struggling Jets. The slight discrepancy between ticket count and money percentage suggests some larger, potentially sharper, wagers may be on the Jets +6.5, which could explain why the line moved down from its opening of -7.5. On the total, the public is more divided, but the significant line drop from 45.5 to 43.5 points to sharp action on the Under.
disclaimer: AI helped in the creation of this preview
