Giants vs. Chiefs: Week 3 Odds, Picks, and Player Props for Sunday Night Football Matchup of Winless Teams
- Two 0-2 teams desperate for a win clash under the Sunday Night Football lights as the Kansas City Chiefs visit the New York Giants.
- Despite their winless start, the Chiefs are 6-point road favorites, a testament to their reputation and the Giants’ own struggles.
Two teams in unfamiliar territory square off in a high-stakes Sunday Night Football matchup, as both the Chiefs and Giants look to avoid a disastrous 0-3 start. Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense has sputtered out of the gate, putting up 10 points at home before a deep bomb against the Eagles got them to 17, while the Giants have paired an explosive passing game with a defense that has been one of the league’s most generous through two weeks.
Mahomes, who has been forced to lead the Chiefs in rushing, has completed just 58.8% of his passes for 445 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, through the hands of Travis “Butterfingers” Kelce. Across the field, Wilson has been more prolific, throwing for 618 yards and three touchdowns against one pick, but his team’s inability to finish drives has them searching for their first win. This game pits a team known for primetime dominance against a franchise that has historically been their kryptonite on the road.
Odds
| Bet Type | Kansas City Chiefs | New York Giants |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -6 (-112) | +6 (-108) |
| Moneyline | -307 | +248 |
| Total Points | Over 45 (-110) | Under 45 (-110) |
Odds as of September 19th, 2025, consensus from legal sportsbooks.
The odds paint a clear picture: despite both teams being 0-2, the market still views the Chiefs as a significantly superior team. The -307 moneyline implies the Chiefs have a 75.4% chance of winning this game. The Giants’ +248 odds suggest a 28.7% chance of pulling off the upset at home.
Moneyline (vig-free): Kansas City Chiefs \~72.4%, New York Giants \~27.6%
Both teams are 0-2 against the spread (ATS) this season, making this a difficult matchup to handicap from a trend perspective. The Chiefs have struggled to cover as favorites, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The Giants have been even worse, covering in just three of their last 14 games (21.4%). The total of 45 points feels low given the Giants are allowing over 30 points per game and the Chiefs’ offense is poised for a bounce-back performance.
Odds Movement & Analysis
The betting lines for this contest have remained remarkably stable, opening with the Chiefs as 6-point favorites and a total of 45, with little movement since. The moneyline has seen a minor shift, with KC moving from -301 to -307, indicating some institutional confidence that Andy Reid’s team will right the ship. This slight steam on the favorite is likely driven by public perception and the Chiefs’ incredible 14-2 record following a loss over their last 16 instances.
However, sharp bettors may see value in the home underdog. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five primetime games and have an inexplicable 0-7 all-time road record against the Giants. The Giants have been dreadful ATS themselves (2-8 in their last 10 as an underdog of fewer than 7 points), but their offense has shown signs of life, averaging nearly 370 yards per game. This discrepancy between public faith in a Chiefs rebound and underlying trends favoring the home dog makes the Giants +6 an intriguing contrarian play.
Injury Report
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Status | Fantasy/Betting Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | ||||
| Mike Danna | DE | quad | out | Danna is a key rotational piece on the defensive line. His absence would thin the pass rush depth against a vulnerable Giants O-line. |
| Kristian Fulton | CB | ankle | out | A potential absence for Fulton in the secondary could create more opportunities for the Giants’ explosive rookie receiver, Malik Nabers. |
| New York Giants | ||||
| Darius Muasau | LB | concussion | out | The Giants’ run defense is already struggling mightily. Losing a linebacker would further weaken their ability to stop the run. |
| Chauncey Golston | DL | ankle | Questionable | Another potential blow to the defensive front. The Giants need all hands on deck to generate pressure on Patrick Mahomes. |
Key Matchups to Watch
Quarterback vs Pass Defense
Mahomes enters this game with a pedestrian 82.0 passer rating, well below his career standards. He faces a Giants defense that is bleeding yards, allowing 277.5 passing yards per game and a 97.3 opponent passer rating. The Giants have generated six sacks but only one interception, suggesting they can create pressure but struggle to capitalize in the secondary. For the Chiefs, success hinges on protecting Mahomes from a surprisingly effective pass rush.
On the other side, Wilson has a 92.8 rating but faces a hyper-aggressive Chiefs defense. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is blitzing at a league-high 44% rate. While this has only resulted in 5 sacks and zero interceptions, it’s a high-risk, high-reward strategy that could rattle Wilson, who has historically struggled when pressured.
Running Game vs Run Defense
This is the most significant mismatch of the game. The Chiefs’ ground game, averaging 109.5 yards per contest, goes up against a New York Giants run defense that has been bulldozed for an astonishing 177.5 yards per game at 5.9 yards per carry. Even if the Chiefs’ traditional running backs have been slow to start, Mahomes himself is averaging over 9 yards per carry. Expect the Chiefs to exploit this weakness early and often to control the clock and set up play-action.
The Giants’ rushing attack has been anemic, managing just 79 yards per game. The Chiefs’ run defense has been solid, allowing only 3.6 yards per carry. New York will likely need to rely on its air raid to move the ball.
Pass Catchers vs Secondary
For the Giants, this matchup is all about rookie sensation Malik Nabers. He’s already a focal point of the offense and will test a Chiefs secondary that has been solid but not spectacular. The question is whether any other Giants receiver can step up if the Chiefs dedicate extra resources to stopping Nabers. Wan’Dale Robinson will need to be effective from the slot.
For the Chiefs, Marquise Brown has been a high-volume target, but Travis Kelce remains the engine of the passing game. The Giants’ linebackers and safeties have struggled in coverage, and Kelce presents a matchup nightmare they may not have an answer for.
Offensive Line vs Pass Rush
The Giants’ offensive line has allowed 5 sacks in two games and now faces a defense that blitzes more than any other team. Their ability to give Wilson a clean pocket is the single most important factor for the Giants’ offense. If they fail, the offense will stall. The Chiefs’ defensive line, led by Chris Jones, will look to disrupt Wilson’s timing all night.
The Chiefs’ offensive line has been better, giving up 4 sacks. However, Mahomes’ mobility often masks protection issues. The Giants’ pass rush, featuring Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence, is the strength of their defense and must win its battles to keep the game close.
Passing Props
| PLAYER | PASSING YARDS | PASSING TDs | COMPLETIONS | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | 234.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 1.5 (O -152 | U +116) | 22.5 (O -116 | U -112) | 0.5 (O +102 | U -139) |
| Russell Wilson (NYG) | 227.5 (O -113 | U -114) | 1.5 (O +137 | U -180) | 21.5 (O +102 | U -131) | 0.5 (O -123 | U -108) |
Rushing & Receiving Props
| PLAYER | RUSHING YARDS | RECEIVING YARDS | RECEPTIONS | ANYTIME TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 41.5 (O -112 | U -115) | 8.5 (O -125 | U -105) | 1.5 (O -156 | U +117) | Yes +158 | No -N/A |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | N/A | 43.5 (O -114 | U -118) | 4.5 (O -110 | U -119) | Yes +135 | No -N/A |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | N/A | 79.5 (O -115 | U -115) | 6.5 (O -109 | U -119) | Yes +135 | No -N/A |
| Wan’dale Robinson (NYG) | N/A | 43.5 (O -114 | U -114) | 4.5 (O -145 | U +110) | Yes +298 | No -N/A |
NFL player props as of September 19, 2025 from consensus lines.
Mahomes’ passing yardage line of 234.5 seems low, but it reflects the offense’s early struggles and a potential game plan focused on exploiting the Giants’ weak run defense. The better value might be on his rushing prop (29.5 yards), as he’s averaging over 60 rushing yards per game and the Giants’ defense may force him to scramble. For the Giants, Nabers’ receiving line at 79.5 yards is a must-watch. He’s averaging 119 yards per game, and the Chiefs’ secondary is good, but not elite. Given his target share, the over is very much in play.
Picks & Prediction
This Sunday night showdown is a classic “get-right” spot for a perennial contender against a struggling opponent, but several underlying factors suggest this game could be closer than the 6-point spread indicates. The Kansas City Chiefs are in an unfamiliar 0-2 hole, and while they are an astounding 14-2 straight up following a loss in their last 16 tries, their performance against the spread has been poor, covering just once in their last six games.
The key to this game lies in the trenches. The New York Giants’ offensive line has to protect Russell Wilson from a Chiefs defense that brings pressure at the highest rate in the NFL. Wilson has been effective from a clean pocket but struggles mightily when hurried. Conversely, the Chiefs’ rushing attack should feast on a Giants defense that is surrendering a league-worst 177.5 yards per game on the ground. This mismatch will allow the Chiefs to control the tempo and keep the Giants’ explosive, but inconsistent, offense off the field. The Chiefs’ historical 0-7 road record against the Giants is a compelling narrative, but this trend is unlikely to outweigh the significant on-field mismatches. The Giants have also been a terrible bet at home, going 1-8 straight up in their last nine home games as an underdog. I expect the Chiefs to win, but the Giants’ offense, led by Nabers, has enough firepower to keep this within the number.
picks:
- ATS: New York Giants +6 (-108)
- Over/Under: Over 45 (-110)
- Player Prop: Patrick Mahomes Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-109)
disclaimer: AI helped with the creation of this preview
