Yankees have a Luis Gil-Cam Schlittler problem

The playoffs are just around the corner and the New York Yankees, despite not having ace Gerrit Cole all season, have a pitching problem: Does Luis Gil or Cam Schlittler start a playoff game?

In fairness, this is probably a moot point. The Yankees trail the first-place Toronto Blue Jays by four games in the AL East, and they have an easier schedule the rest of the way compared to their northern neighbors. Even so, Toronto has been near-unstoppable since July, and so the Yankees’ pitching plan for a Wild Card series is probably set.

That means Carlos Rodon likely starting Game 1, followed by Max Fried in Game 2. In a potential Game 3, expect rookie Will Warren to start followed by either a Gil or Schlittler piggyback.

But even then, what does manager Aaron Boone do? Trust Gil and his limited playoff experience, or Schlittler and his upside?

Let’s look at the two side by side, starting with the rookie Schlittler. The big righty has a natural presence on the mound at 6’6″, 225 pounds and a fastball that regularly touches the high-90s. Like most young strikeout pitchers, he struggles with walks to the tune of 4.30 BB/9. Regardless, Schlittler has pitched to a 3.41 ERA and 3.96 FIP, plus a 4.19 xERA. Not over or underachieving.

Taking a deeper look, Schlittler’s struggles with walks look less like control issues and more a rookie still learning how to actually pitch. Let’s start with the plus-stats. Schlittler’s Stuff+ is a solid 113, with his Location+ right on the cusp at 99. His Pitching+, or decision-making, is at 110.

Now, let’s look at how Cam Schlittler actually pitches. He leads with his fastball about 55.5% of the time, and the rest is scattered across four other pitches. His cutter, curveball, sinker, and sweeper. He’s pitched well enough to be treated as a long-term starter, be it in New York or on another team.

Luis Gil, on the other hand, throws only three pitches: his fastball, slider, and changeup. What’s more, he only recently mastered the changeup after learning it to tamp down his walks. Even though he missed the first half of the season with a shoulder injury, Gil still has allowed way too many. He’s averaging 5.67 BB/9 on the year and has a career mark of 4.95.

Therein lies the difference between the two. Gil has always been a fastball-slider arm who learned the changeup to keep developing as a starter. He has the ability to work at or about 100 pitches per game, but rarely does because the walks pile up. It’s at the point where he should probably add a sinker or cutter to the mix if he wants to keep starting games.

Speaking of, let’s take a look at the projected rotation for next season:

• Gerrit Cole
• Carlos Rodon
• Max Fried
• Will Warren
• Luis Gil/Cam Schlittler

What’s the difference between Gil and the rest of his fellow starters? All the rest throw more than three pitches. Even the rookie Warren, barely a year younger than Gil at age 26, throws five pitches.

The Luis Gil starter experiment was nice but unless he shows up to spring training healthy and with better control, he should be bullpen-bound. He has the fastball velocity and biting slider. That combination thrives in high-leverage situations when hitters may be a little more tense and off-balance. Especially when you consider how much the Yankees’ bullpen struggled this year.

Schlittler, though? The Yankees might have tapped into someone with future ace potential. It’s a small sample but a 119 ERA+ means something. He’s been in the majors a shade over two months, and he’s already 19% better than the average pitcher. And within spitting distance of Gil’s 122 mark too.

I mean no disrespect when I say this, but Luis Gil works like a thrower. He fires the velocity in and otherwise depends largely on whiffs and chases on his slider and changeup. Cue the 102 Stuff+, 92 Location+, and 97 Pitching+.

Cam Schlittler, though he’s still learning, works like a pitcher. He’s shown more as a starter in two months than what Gil has in over two years.

Come next season, don’t be surprised if the two are in open competition for a spot in the rotation.