NY Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays: Bombers seek tight two-game sweep

The Yankees needed to take at least one of two games from the Tampa Bay Rays this week, and can now go for the sweep on Wednesday.

Tuesday saw the Bronx Bombers live up to their name and slug nine home runs in a 13-3 romp. Team captain and reigning MVP Aaron Judge kicked it off with a solo home run in the first inning, his 40th of the season. Cody Bellinger and Giancarlo Stanton went yard immediately after and each hit another homer later, with Bellinger finishing with a 4-hit night. Now, add home runs from Ben Rice and Jazz Chisholm Jr.

And just for fun? We’re going to add two from former Ray Jose Caballero.

Wednesday, however, should prove a tougher go. The Yankees will hand the ball to one of their youngest and brightest, while Tampa Bay hands it to one of their best.

Time: 7:35 p.m. ET

TV: YES

Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (EVEN), O/U 8.5

Key Storyline: Can Yankees bring the big bats again? It’s hard to score a single run in a ballgame, let alone 13. It’s even harder to hit a home run, let alone nine in a game. And somehow, the Yankees have managed to do it twice this season.

That said, the team would love nothing more than to grab another big win in Tampa before flying home for four important games with the Red Sox. It’d be great if Judge’s home run last night was the start of his own hot streak because, as we’ve seen all too often with these Yankees, when Judge hits well? So do the rest of his teammates.

Pitching Matchup: Cam Schlittler (1-2, 3.94 ERA) vs. Drew Rasmussen (10-5, 2.60 ERA). This could be (thus far) the most important start of Cam Schlittler’s young career. He has the velocity and his stuff plays, but he’s clearly still developing his offspeed and breaking game. He’s still learning how to actually pitch. And coming into tonight, he has his July 28 start against the Rays to draw from: three runs on seven hits with five strikeouts and four walks in 4.1 innings.

Not exactly ideal.

And, same as this evening, Schlittler’s Tampa Bay counterpart is Rasmussen, who has stellar career numbers against the Yankees. He’s 3-1 with an 0.85 ERA in six games (five starts) versus New York. Moreover, Rasmussen is 3-0 with a 1.21 ERA since that July 28 game.

The two are almost too similar from a “stuff” standpoint. Schlittler’s Stuff+ is 117 compared to Rasmussen’s 112. They’re also both great decision makers on the mound and each hold a Pitching+ of 111. That leaves Location+, which determines how well a pitcher places the ball in the strike zone. Rasmussen’s is an above average 103 while Schlittler, still learning how to pitch, only posts a 94.

X-Factor: Yankee bullpen. Schlittler leans heavily on his fastball and slider, which means Aaron Boone and Matt Blake should expect issues with walks. That means the Yankees bullpen should be ready to show up as early as the fifth inning, maybe sooner if the Rays jump on Schlittler’s fastball.

Lucky for the Yankees, the ‘pen seems to have stabilized itself. Devin Williams is thriving in a low leverage role and Luke Weaver finally seems healthy again. David Bednar should be nicknamed “Brass Balls” for how seamlessly he’s stepped into the closer’s role. But with a team wRC+ of 97, the Rays’ lineup is top-heavy enough that the relief corps should have no issue finishing the job once Schlittler is done.

Prediction: For all we know, this could be Cam Schlittler’s breakout start and he tosses six shutout innings. However, the walks tell a different story and the big righty is averaging 4.2 per nine innings. That’s to be expected if he continues shying away from his sinker and sweeper. Rasmussen, on the other hand, owns the Yankees and has already beaten them once this season.

It won’t be a blowout, but New York will have to settle for a series split. Rays 6, Yankees 2

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