Pete Alonso is Mets home run king, but will he stay in NY?

Move over Darryl Strawberry, Pete Alonso has assumed the New York Mets all-time home run throne.

In Tuesday’s 13-5 clubbing of the Atlanta Braves, Alonso was 3 for 5 with two home runs and three RBI. His first longball, a two-run shot off of Spencer Strider in the third inning, was the 253rd of his career. That put him past Strawberry’s 252 with the Mets.

This is also shaping up to be Alonso’s strongest season in three years. He’s batting .267 with 28 home runs and 96 RBI, good for an excellent 145 wRC+. Yet another chapter in what should be a lengthy Mets’ history, right?

Well, maybe not so much. It’s easy to forget that amidst this great campaign, Alonso is on the cusp of hitting free agency for the second year in a row. He failed to secure the multi-year, $100-200 million contract he desired last offseason. Instead, he re-signed with the Mets on a two-year, $52 million deal with an opt-out after 2025. Safe to say, Alonso will be on the market again in 2026 and with plenty more suitors.

Which begs the question: will the Mets be in a position to re-sign him again? Following up, will they even try to bring back Alonso beyond extending him a qualifying offer?

Well, maybe? If the Mets re-sign Alonso, who will turn 31 at the height of the offseason, they’ll probably try for some sort of hometown discount. Not quite the $150-200 million Alonso will want over a 5-7 year deal, but something close. Maybe something where the Mets tack on an extra year while offering a lower average annual value (AAV).

Or, do the Mets let Alonso walk and hope moving to first base revives Mark Vientos’s bat? Maybe they go for a short-term free agent like Ty France or Max Muncy? What about a Wilmer Flores reunion?

Anyway, the only reason we bring this up is if Pete Alonso does indeed opt out of his contract and hit free agency as expected? Don’t expect the Mets to go out of their way to bring him back. And not just because of the slight, albeit unlikely possibility that Alonso is overachieving in a contract year.

First, the Mets already have a lot of money tied up in big contracts. The 2026 season marks the second year of Juan Soto’s 15-year megadeal. Francisco Lindor will be at the halfway point of his 10-year, $341 million deal. The streaky Brandon Nimmo will be midway through his eight-year, $162 million pact. Not even Steve Cohen’s pockets are so big that Alonso coming back to Queens is a given.

Second, the Mets could really use some more reliable pitching. Granted, that could be tough since the rotation for next year seems fairly set: Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson and, likely, Tylor Megill. That’s a solid group of arms, so why spend at all?

Simple answer: Holmes has run into his usual second-half-of-the-season wall, and he’s a starting pitcher this time around. He owns a 4.76 career ERA in the second half as it is, and he’s now posted a 5.45 ERA since July 2. Unless Holmes improves over the season’s final weeks, the Mets should seriously consider moving him back to the bullpen. Especially if Cohen and Dave Stearns join the bidding for a solid pitching free agency class that includes Framber Valdez, Freddy Peralta, and Shane Bieber, among others.

Another route the Mets could go with Holmes is moving him to the bullpen and giving his spot in the rotation to a prospect like Brandon Sproat or Jonah Tong.

So, where does that leave Pete Alonso? He’s a Scott Boras client, so you know he’s not signing until he has the best offer in hand. Don’t expect a reunion with the Mets on a hometown discount, come hell or high water, and even when pigs fly.

The true answer as to Alonso’s future, however, lies in the rest of the Mets’ season. If Tuesday’s win over Atlanta is the start of a new hot streak despite the shaky pitching, then maybe there’s a lane for him to stay in Queens for the rest of his career.

But if the Mets stay streaky through September and can’t keep up in the playoffs because of pitching? Watch Pete Alonso become an afterthought before Opening Day, Mets all-time home run leader or not.