NY Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: RHP Cam Schlittler debuts

Cam Schlittler is making his MLB debut under some solid circumstances.

The Bronx Bombers are still 3.5 games behind the red-hot Blue Jays thanks to a recent cold stretch, but Monday gave some hope for the rest of the season. The Yankees dominated the Mariners 10-3 thanks to home runs from Giancarlo Stanton, Austin Wells, and captain Aaron Judge. Better yet, rain delay or not, they still tagged Mariners ace Logan Gilbert for five runs in 5.1 innings.

New York will hope to keep the runs rolling on Tuesday to support a fresh-faced rookie. Right-hander Cam Schlittler, who has a 2.82 ERA and 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) in the minors this year, is making his MLB debut in wake of Clarke Schmidt’s sudden Tommy John surgery.

Seattle counters with a rookie of their own, along with the hope that they can welcome Schlittler to the big leagues the hard way.

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

TV: Prime Video

Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-160), O/U 9.5

Key Storyline: Can Cam be a quick fix after losing Clarke? Clarke Schmidt wasn’t putting up ace-like numbers for the Yankees this year, but was certainly effective when his stuff worked. His 3.32 ERA is paired with a sub-3 xERA and 3.90 FIP. That’s tough for any team to replicate, especially considering Schmidt was doing a better job inducing whiffs on his cutter and sweeper.

Schlittler, by comparison, is a different pitcher. Unlike Schmidt’s barrel build at 6-foot-1, 200 pounds, Schlittler is a presence on the mound. He’s listed at 6-foot-6, 225 pounds and is a fastball-dominant arm. He leads with his four-seamer, pairs it with both a sweeper and curveball, and is also working on his changeup. The only real question is not only if his velocity will play at the major league level, but if his pitches move enough to throw hitters off balance.

Pitching Matchup: Logan Evans (3-2, 2.96 ERA) vs. Cam Schlittler (MLB Debut). Now that we’ve met Schlittler, let’s talk about his fellow rookie toeing the slab for Seattle tonight, Logan Evans. The tall righty throws a solid mix of six pitches despite his youth: A cutter, sweeper, sinker, changeup, four-seam fastball, and curveball. Based on his underlying metrics, this could turn into a slugfest that all depends on which pitcher does the least damage.

Evans may have a 2.96 ERA, but his xERA is a less-than-average 4.69. His FIP is 4.62, the ground ball rate (GB%) is a shade under 40%, and he’s prone to giving up home runs. He also doesn’t have a ton of natural fastball velocity. It tops out around 93 mph, and that could be a problem now that the Yankees bats are seeing the ball again.

X-Factor: Giancarlo Stanton. First, let’s take a look at Stanton’s home run from last night:

Look at the swing. Vintage Giancarlo Stanton. The bat coming straight down through the zone and making contact look like a mere tap despite an exit velocity of 106.1 mph.

We should also note that Stanton isn’t hitting the ball as hard this season. His hard contact rate is down over 15 points compared to last year, at just 28.9%. There’s no clear consistent power threat in the lineup behind Aaron Judge. Stanton still has some natural raw power despite injuries keeping him out until June this year. If Monday was the start of a hot streak, the Yankees’ lineup could be back in top form soon.

Prediction: Not to get all Forrest Gump about it, but pitching prospects are like a box of chocolate. You never know whether their debut will be stellar, a shit-show, or in-between. That said, if you’re browsing New York sports betting apps and unsure on a winner, betting the over seems safe.

Home run parlays could be a good idea too. Cal Raleigh, Judge, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. could be worthy picks. And, in terms of likely winner, New York’s deeper lineup has the edge. Yankees 8, Mariners 4.