In case you missed it, Juan Soto is finally starting to hit like the Juan Soto we know and love.
The New York Mets’ star free agent has been on an absolute tear in June, batting .346 with a .615 slugging percentage and 1.179 OPS. His batting average is up to .244 on the year and his OPS a respectable .820.
And on the power & production side this month, Juan Soto has chipped in…two home runs and four RBI. Not exactly a giant helping of offense. If anything, Juan Soto’s month has been closer to an artisanal Italian bread basket with hot honey and herbed garlic butter than the full steak dinner with a seafood tower.
But in the case of the New York Mets? These empty calories are just what they need for both Soto and the lineup in general.
Look at it this way. Even with his slow start to 2024, Juan Soto is still leading MLB with 55 walks. Pitch recognition and getting on base has always been his bread-and-butter, so it’s not as though he hasn’t been seeing the ball well. A .254 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) while batting .244 also doesn’t help, nor does an almost-six-point jump in ground ball rate (GB%). We should also note, Soto has made 3% more soft contact in 2025 compared to last season while his hard contact rate has dipped almost 3.5%.
And yet, even then, Soto still finds himself batting .270 in what Baseball-Reference dubs “Late & Close” under clutch stats. That .270 batting average under those circumstances is paired with…two home runs and four RBI.
Let’s just call it like it is. Soto’s hot stretches this season have largely been empty calories. That isn’t a bad thing, nor a dig. That’s just how things shake out in baseball on a given year. Just look at Pete Alonso, who only managed an above-average 121 wRC+ in 2023 despite hitting 46 home runs.
Yes, Alonso only hit .217 that season, but he also managed 118 RBI despite not coming through in the clutch. He hit .192 in Late & Close situations and .217 in BR’s formula for high leverage.
Oddly enough, though Soto has done alright in Late & Close this year, he’s only batting .205 in high leverage at-bats. He’s right on the Mendoza Line at .200 in tie games.
And just because baseball refuses to make sense sometimes, in a twist of irony, Soto still manages to bat .293 across innings 7-9. In the 7th inning alone, he’s batting .389 on the year.
Thus, while it’s great that Juan Soto is finally hitting his stride with the Mets, there’s still more work to be done. He can’t just be the world’s most expensive on-base machine, as much as that’s appreciated. His swinging a hot bat again needs to translate to some actual production as opposed to simply setting the table for Alonso, Jeff McNeil, etc.
Just imagine the top half of the Mets’ lineup at its best. Francisco Lindor being deadly from both sides of the plate. Juan Soto taking both regular walks and home run trots. Polar Bear-cool Pete Alonso mashing another one. Imagine what could be if Brandon Nimmo’s bat finally caught up with the rest of the lineup.
Soto’s clearly unlocked something in himself with positive results. Let’s see him unlock something more when there are runners on base.
