It’s finally come, ladies and gentlemen: the long-anticipated World Series rematch series between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers.
Both teams are performing about as expected, with both sitting in first place in their respective divisions. There is, however, a key difference. The Yankees own a comfortable six-and-a-half game lead over the Rays in the AL East. Los Angeles, on the other hand, is clinging to a two-game lead over the Padres in the NL West.
Except everyone remembers the World Series last year. The Dodgers won in five games and outplayed the Yankees start to finish, save for maybe Game 1. Freddie Freeman hit the walkoff grand slam off of Nestor Cortes, and the Dodgers practically sailed on from there.
This weekend should be different in several ways. LA’s pitching staff is banged up and streaky save for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who doesn’t pitch until Sunday’s series finale. The lineups match up almost too well.
It’s a tough road getting there, but there is indeed a blueprint for the Yankees to follow to victory.
Be patient. Look back at the 2024 World Series, and we can pinpoint the exact moment the Yankees lost it for good. It wasn’t the meltdown in Game 5, but in the top of the third inning in Game 1. New York had forced Dodgers starter Jack Flaherty to throw 40 pitches through two innings, only for Gleyber Torres to swing at his first pitch in the third. Things slowly went south for New York from then on.
We should also note that the Dodgers’ pitching staff is injured enough that they aren’t sending their best out on Friday or Saturday. Tony Gonsolin is working his way back from Tommy John surgery and has just over 10 K/9, but also allows 4.3 BB/9. Landon Knack is prone to giving up home runs.
Even Yamamoto has his flaws, which should mildly concern the numbers-driven Dodgers. Though he’s 6-3 with a 1.97 ERA on the year, his Stuff+ is a sub-average 94.
Trust the lineup. Unlike last season, this year’s Yankees lineup isn’t overly top heavy. Aaron Judge is still the motor, the anchor. Future Hall-of-Famer and part-time leadoff first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is 37, and somehow batting .347. He isn’t overachieving by much either, with his expected batting average (xBA) in the 95th percentile.
New York should also benefit from having a finally-patient Anthony Volpe and hard-hitting rookie Ben Rice in the lineup. No more relying solely on Judge and a since-departed-for-the-Mets Juan Soto can only be a good thing in this World Series rematch.
Relief is LA’s weakness. The Dodgers’ method of milking as much velocity out of their pitching prospects is finally catching up with them, especially in the bullpen. Among a pitching staff with a collective ERA of 4.09 ERA (21st in MLB), Dodgers relievers have posted a 3.98 bullpen ERA. It’s enough that LA just acquired struggling former All-Star closer Alexis Diaz from the Reds.
Runs on the board are the name of the game, but that means the winning team must also execute on run prevention. A consistent bullpen is a linchpin of this practice. The Dodgers are clearly still figuring theirs out.
