The 3 Best 49ers vs. Rams Player Props

01/30/2022

49ers rams player props — PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

All four Divisional Round games were decided on the final play, helping to make last weekend one of the most memorable in NFL playoff history. As an encore performance, the NFC offers the season’s third installment of San Francisco versus Los Angeles this Sunday in the conference’s championship game, with the 49ers having defeated the Rams in each of the first two meetings.

Let’s take a deep dive into the best 49ers vs. Rams player props picks for the NFL Conference Championship Game.

49ers vs. Rams Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk Over 47.5 Receiving Yards

Obviously, Deebo Samuel has become priority one for opposing defenses, as he has proven capable of hurting the opposition in myriad ways. It will be no different here, as Samuel has haunted Los Angeles, never having lost to the Rams in his career.

If Jalen Ramsey plays in the star position, he will likely pick up Samuel anytime the latter lines up as a receiver. That would leave Brandon Aiyuk to work against the remainder of the Los Angeles secondary, which is deep into the depth chart at safety with Jordan Fuller out and Taylor Rapp still working back from a concussion. Even if Aiyuk draws Ramsey at times, the Rams’ star corner was beaten deep by Mike Evans on multiple occasions last week, something Aiyuk has proven able to do all season long.

Brandon Aiyuk cooked Trevon Diggs ?pic.twitter.com/8WjK5YeH1O

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) January 16, 2022

Aiyuk has one of the 20 best yards per catch averages in the league this season (14.6), meaning he might only need three receptions or less to cash this prop. Aiyuk did not catch a ball in last week’s win, but Garoppolo only completed 11 passes in that one, a very different style of game than one would expect in a dome contest here.

Aiyuk’s two games prior were in must-win dome games and he caught at least five balls in each, easily topping this prop’s requirement for receiving yardage in both. In fact, prior to last week, the Arizona State product had tallied at least 40 receiving yards in seven straight road games, reaching the 49 needed here in five of those contests. His ability to excel away from home began last year in his rookie season when he amassed at least 70 receiving yards in five of his seven road games, but failed to reach 45 yards in three of his five at home.

Aiyuk caught six of seven balls for 107 yards in Week 18 in this building. We expect similar success here against a Los Angeles team that allowed the sixth most receiving yards per game by opposing wideouts this year (168.7).

Nick Bosa To Record A Sack

Nick Bosa was a dominant force this season after missing most of last season with an ACL tear. He posted 15.5 sacks in 15 regular season games, the NFL’s fourth highest total. He has since added another 2.5 sacks in the postseason, bringing him to 18 total on the year, the third highest number in football.

Bosa will come up against an offensive line and quarterback which he has seen twice already this season, recording a sack in the first meeting and sharing a sack in the second. And while Matthew Stafford hasn’t been the easiest to sack this year with the Rams allowing the sixth fewest sacks per game in the league (1.8), they do allow 2.1 per game at home, which is only the NFL’s 12th best mark. Further, Los Angeles’ sixth ranked sack percentage against (4.88), jumps to 14th at home has been just 20th over the team’s last three games.

Not All-Pro?? ¯_(ツ)_/¯ @nbsmallerbear SACK
? #SFvsDAL on CBS/Nickelodeon/49ers App pic.twitter.com/9U1E8x6FTX

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 16, 2022

San Francisco can shred the best of fronts, too, and what Bosa sees in this one will be offering a couple of banged up left tackles protecting Stafford’s blind side. Bosa moves along the defensive front and will surely spend time attacking Andrew Whitworth and/or Joel Kierboom.

Note: Be sure to check out our Bengals vs. Chiefs player props breakdown.

The Niners average the second most sacks per game (3.1), posting the league’s best road sack production with 3.8 per away contest. The next closest team averages just 3.2 sacks per road game. In fact, San Francisco has averaged five sacks a game over their last three games, including five against these Rams in Week 18. The 49ers also own the league’s third best sack percentage (8.58), sacking quarterbacks 10.19 percent of the time on the road. That was easily the best rate in football with the next best team getting home just 8.29 percent of the time.

Nick Bosa had 12 games with at least one sack, two more games with 0.5 sacks, and just five games with zero sacks. He tallied 14 of his 18 total sacks this season away from home. He also had 15 of those 18 sacks in San Francisco victories, so he will know how important his sack contributions are to his team’s success.

Matthew Stafford Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Matthew Stafford did not rush for a single touchdown during the regular season, but all of that changed with the onset of the playoffs. Every yard gets a little harder to come by when it’s win-or-go-home, especially around the goal line. As such, Stafford had to take matters into his own hands against Arizona and Tampa Bay, the teams which allowed the third and fifth fewest rushing touchdowns per game this season.

Now, Stafford and the Rams square off against San Francisco, which allows the sixth fewest rushing yards per game this year. Los Angeles running backs have not produced a touchdown in three straight games and have scored just twice in the last seven contests.

The 49ers conceded the fewest yards per rush to opposing running backs and have allowed just two rushing touchdowns by backs in their last seven outings. However, they have seen five different quarterbacks run for scores against them this season, including Dak Prescott in the Wild Card round.

Love a good Stafford Sneak for 6️⃣!

? @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/IDMe250NFe

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) January 23, 2022

Stafford has 10 rushes to his credit already this postseason, with six against Arizona and four against Tampa Bay. He did not top three rushes in another game since Week 4, again accentuating the tougher sledding in the playoffs and the increased need for each player to do whatever is needed to produce points and secure victory.

There is one final detail that lends to the possibility of Stafford being in position to sneak for another touchdown here. San Francisco has had 20 defensive pass interference calls against it this season, five more than any other team. The eight called against the Niners on the road also led the league. If Stafford can coax one against the 49ers on a pass into the endzone, it would set his team up on the one-yard line and him up to rush one in for a +600 return.