NY Yankees at KC Royals: Aaron Judge continues dance with .400

Aaron Judge went full team captain mode on Tuesday, launching a 469-foot two-run home run in the first inning to give the Yankees an early 2-0 lead.

That was just the beginning of the onslaught. Austin Wells also homered and had five RBI while Max Fried added seven strong innings in New York’s 10-2 victory. Kansas City, the worst power-hitting team in baseball, only managed an RBI groundout from rookie Jac Caglianone and a late solo shot from Jonathan India.

The Royals will try their luck again on Wednesday when they send lefty Kris Bubic and his MLB-best 1.43 ERA to the mound. He took a no-decision in his start in the Bronx in April, but has tossed five consecutive quality starts. It’ll be interesting to see how he handles the Yankees and their .840 team OPS versus left-handed pitchers.

Time: 7:40 p.m. ET

TV: Amazon Prime, MLB Network

Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-125), O/U 8.5

Key Storyline: Have the New York Yankees exposed the Royals? Short answer, no. The New York Yankees are not the reason the Kansas City Royals have hit only 45 home runs through June 10. However, we should note that the AL Central is a weak division. Sure, the Detroit Tigers currently have the best record in baseball, but they had a fairly soft schedule early on. The truth of the matter is the Royals, though in fourth place, are still just 9.5 games back and have more than enough time to get hot and go on a run.

But even so, the Yankees swept the Royals in the Bronx in April and clinched the season series with a blowout win on Tuesday. KC may have a strong pitching staff, but the Bronx Bombers’ lineup is stronger.

Pitching Matchup: Clarke Schmidt (2-3, 4.04 ERA) vs Kris Bubic (5-3, 1.43 ERA). New York hands the ball to Clarke Schmidt, who made his season debut against the Royals at home on April 16. He did pretty well, pitching 5.2 innings and allowing three runs in a no-decision. The young righty has been a bit puzzling this season, relying heavily on his cutter and pairing it with his knuckle curve and sweeper. His sinker is an afterthought, though this new approach has given him an expected ERA (xERA) of 3.04.

So where does that leave Bubic, who started opposite Schmidt in that same April 16 game? He turned in 5.1 innings and stuck out six, but walked four and allowed three runs on seven hits in a no-decision. His FIP is 2.45 and his xFIP is 3.27, so he isn’t overachieving to the point where a full-blown regression is coming.

However, with his Stuff+ a subaverage 95, Bubic needs to have his fastball, sweeper, and changeup at or near perfection.

X-Factor: Anthony Volpe. Judge can’t carry the lineup on his own and, as we noted yesterday, Paul Goldschmidt is coming back down to earth. Who’s the best hitter matching up against lefties and in a ballpark with a big, gappy outfield like Kauffman Stadium? That would be Volpe.

The third-year shortstop has hit .319 with an .895 OPS against lefties in 2025 and added two hits in Tuesday’s route. He’s more balanced and confident at the plate. He’s using the whole field and his new torpedo bat allows for more power. He already has 19 doubles on the year after hitting 27 in 2024.

Is Volpe’s bat the key to a Yankees victory Wednesday? No, but him utilizing the K’s deep gaps would take some pressure off of Judge. That alone is invaluable.

Prediction. The Royals’ complete lack of power means that, once again, the Yankees take this one. So what does that mean for those on New York sports betting apps? Simple. The Yankees’ run or moneyline is smart along with the over. So is a Judge hitting parlay. Add one for Bobby Witt Jr. too for an extra boost. Otherwise, New York wins in another fairly one-sided game. Yankees 6, Royals 2.