The 3 Best Patriots vs. Bills Player Props

01/15/2022

patriots bills player props — PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots will become the 15th pair of divisional rivals to meet in the NFL Wild Card Round since 2003 when they play at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park tonight. The Patriots will look to win the rubber match by securing a second road win over Buffalo this season, but to do it, New England will have to defeat a red-hot Bills team that closed the regular season with four straight wins.

Let’s take a deep dive into the best Patriots vs. Bills player props picks for this NFL Super Wild Card Weekend matchup.

Patriots vs. Bills Player Props Picks

Josh Allen Under 240.5 Passing Yards

Josh Allen did us a huge service last time he faced the Patriots by throwing for 314 yards in the win at New England three weeks ago. Now we find what feels to us like a slightly inflated total on this passing yardage prop and we are going to hammer the under.

The truth lies just below the surface here, as Allen has been a different passer at home versus on the road against the Patriots during his career and against pretty much everyone this season. Allen has averaged 264.8 passing yards per game in four career games away at the Pats, throwing for at least 208 in each. However, in three career home starts against New England, he has never topped 154 passing yards, averaging just 150.7 per contest.

In all road games this season, Allen has amassed a solid 67.1 completion percentage, averaging 294.9 passing yards per game on 7.6 yards per attempt. However, at home, the Bills’ quarterback completed just 59.8 percent of his passes at 6.1 yards per attempt, averaging only 227.6 yards per game through the air. He has not topped this prop’s total in any of his last five home games this season and has not thrown for 250 yards or more at Orchard Park since Week 3, a span of seven straight home contests.

Allen had five other games this season with totals set at 45 points or below and averaged just 233 passing yards per game in those outings, staying under this prop’s number in all three at home.

Defending Josh Allen challenges you on all fronts. My report. #Bills #Patriots pic.twitter.com/pNb8YaKv4G

— Mike Giardi (@MikeGiardi) January 14, 2022

The Wyoming product also began to lose traction in the passing game as the season has gone along. In the first nine games, he topped this prop requirement eight times, but in the final eight outings, only did so three times. This could be an indicator of how Allen throws the ball in winter weather or a change in approach for the offense as the temperature drops. Either way, since the start of December, he completed just 57.2 percent of his passes and averaged just 222.7 passing yards per game. It’s also worth noting, given that this game will be played in one of the coldest temperatures in Orchard Park history, that in games played in under 40 degree weather this season, Allen completed just 54.4 percent of his passes, averaging just 5.6 yards per pass attempt.

New England is unlikely to make life easier for Allen here, either. The Patriots boast the league’s second best pass defense, allowing just 187.1 yards per game through the air. Only four opposing quarterbacks threw for more than 237 yards against the Pats this season, with only one of those coming in a New England road game. In fact, when rookie Davis Mills threw for 293 yards against the Patriots in Houston, it was the only time on the road that they allowed more than 162 passing yards in a game.

Josh Allen is Buffalo’s biggest weapon and Bill Belichick will have geared the team’s defensive game plan to contain Allen and Stefon Diggs. In the bitter temperatures this game promises, it’s hard to imagine Allen topping this prop number.

Damien Harris Anytime Touchdown Scorer

It was tempting to take New England rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson as an anytime touchdown scorer here, given his +250 odds and Belichick’s propensity to do the unexpected in even the biggest situations. However, 15 of the 17 touchdowns Buffalo allowed this season were to its opponents’ leading rushers.

And, as far as leading rushers go, the Patriots certainly have a good one, especially in terms of scoring the football. Damien Harris finished tied for second in the league with 15 rushing touchdowns this season, despite playing in just 15 games. That was 10 more rushing scores than Stevenson, who was second on the team.

Harris has scored in five straight outings, recording 14 of his 15 touchdowns in his last 11 appearances. He only failed to score once during that 11 game stretch and that was in a Thursday Night Football game where the Patriots shut out an NFC opponent. Harris was not needed much there and was used sparingly as such, having just returned from a concussion.

Damien Harris follows his blocks for the 16-yard TD run! #ForeverNE

?: #BUFvsNE on CBS
?: NFL app pic.twitter.com/9hyuIkajtH

— NFL (@NFL) December 26, 2021

The Patriots scored four touchdowns against Buffalo this season and it was Harris who was responsible for all of them. Again, Belichick knows his audience, as Buffalo allowed 1.1 rushing touchdowns per game this season, fifth most in the league. In fact, 59.4 percent of the touchdowns scored against the Bills came via the rush, over 10 percent more than the next team and obviously the greatest rate in the league. On this cold night, expect New England to look to punch it in with the guy who scored 31.3 percent of its total offensive touchdowns this year.

Be sure check out our dives into Eagles-Bucs props and Raiders-Bengals props.

Devin Singletary Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Unless we miss our mark, New England will aim to limit Stefon Diggs’ impact on the game, while also attempting to control the power run by Josh Allen. As such, there are likely to be more running lanes for Devin Singletary, especially in the red zone. The Patriots have been liberal against the run all season, allowing the NFL’s 11th most yards on the ground, despite still owning the league’s fourth best total yardage defense and second best scoring defense.

Buffalo running backs had only scored five rushing touchdowns in the first 13 games of the season, but have come on as the temperatures have dropped, scoring five more in their final four games of the regular contests.

Singletary scored all five of those, part of his team leading seven rushing touchdowns on the season. He also added a receiving score in the team’s final game, making it back-to-back games with multiple touchdowns to end the regular season.

Bills just pouring it on now ?

Devin Singletary with the insurance TD ?pic.twitter.com/2s7N0URreh

— Bills Nation (@BillsNationCP) January 10, 2022

New England allowed just two rushing touchdowns to opposing backs over the team’s first 11 games, but softened a bit in that area down the stretch. The Patriots conceded six touchdowns to running backs in the final six games of the year, the same amount as they conceded to wide receivers and tight ends combined in that span.

That more balanced ratio of rushing to passing touchdowns allowed late in the year was disparate from the Patriots’ overall season splits and might be something Buffalo looks to exploit here, especially knowing that Singletary was able to punch one in against New England in the last meeting.

After all, even despite that late season lull, New England’s rush defense still allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns of any team and saw the fourth lowest percentage of touchdowns against it scored on the ground (25.7). This shows just how dramatically different the Patriots’ defense performed against running backs late in the regular season, setting up Buffalo’s leading rusher for some opportunities here.

Josh Allen threw for 36 touchdowns and rushed for six more this season. Stephon Diggs (10) and Dawson Knox (9) combined to catch 19 scores. With extra attention sure to be paid to those main threats around goal, Singletary should get some chances to reach paydirt Saturday night.