raiders bengals player props

The Las Vegas Raiders certainly did not get much time to enjoy their exciting entrance into the NFL Playoffs. They’ll play the first playoff game of the weekend when they face the Bengals in Cincinnati on Saturday afternoon. While Las Vegas endured an emotional overtime victory, Cincinnati rested most of its important starters in a generally meaningless loss. With plenty of betting dollars flowing on what looks poised to be a shootout, player props figure to be popular for this one.

Let’s take a deep dive into the best Raiders vs. Bengals player props picks for this NFL Super Wild Card Weekend matchup.


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Raiders vs. Bengals Player Props Picks

Derek Carr Over 23.5 Completions

This seems like an awfully low prop total for the quarterback who threw the NFL’s seventh most passes per game, completing the fifth most this season. Derek Carr, who also owns the fifth best completion percentage in football, has topped this prop’s requirement in 11 of his team’s 17 games this year, including five of the last seven.

When you break that statistic down a bit further, you find that Carr would have cashed this prop in six of his eight road games and was pretty balanced in doing so in both wins and losses, topping this number in seven of the Raiders’ 10 wins and four of their seven losses. His percentage of reaching 24 or more completions dipped as an underdog, accomplishing the feat in seven of 12 efforts. The thing is, most of those failures were in division games. Remove those outings and he actually would have won this prop in five of his six games as a non-division dog.

On the other side, Cincinnati has been a generally obliging victim for opposing quarterbacks looking for high completion numbers. The Bengals allowed 24 or more completions in 10 of their 17 games this year, including in seven of their eight home games.

Cincinnati did hold Carr below this prop number when the two sides met earlier in the season, but otherwise, the only teams that threw for at least 24 completions against the Bengals were ranked 13th or worse in passing yards per game. Las Vegas sits sixth in the league in that category and is unlikely to get held down again by the NFL’s seventh worst pass defense.

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These two teams seem a solid pairing to offer Carr the opportunity to complete a lot of passes, especially in what should be a tightly contested playoff game. Cincinnati allows the NFL’s third most completions per game (24.7), a number that spikes to 25.1 in its home games. Las Vegas completes the fifth most (25.2), increasing that to 25.4 on the road. Bengals opponents have thrown the ball 62.1 percent of the time, football’s fourth highest rate and a number that jumps to 63.9 percent at home. The Raiders own the seventh highest pass play percentage (61.7), a rate that increases to 63.2 percent away from home.

Lastly, the Bengals have seen opposing quarterbacks earn the seventh best completion percentage against (67.1 percent) and have allowed 71.7 percent of passes to be completed  over their last three games.

In home games, they allowed a 69.3 completion percentage, fifth highest in the league. The Raiders completed the NFL’s fourth highest percentage of passes this season (68.3) and bumped that up to 69.2 percent over their last three outings. With Darren Waller back in the fold, Carr should have a quality chance to cash this prop bet.

Hunter Renfrow Anytime Touchdown Scorer

The diminutive Hunter Renfrow had a great season, catching 103 of 128 balls thrown his way for 1,038 yards and nine touchdowns. No other Las Vegas player topped 55 catches, 93 targets, 665 receiving yards, or three touchdowns. With Andrew Waller back, Cincinnati will have to split its attention between the two stars.

Renfrow spread his nine touchdowns out across eight different games, with last week’s win over the Chargers being the only contest in which he caught multiple touchdowns. Interestingly, he did so despite catching just four passes for 13 yards, displaying just how dangerous he can be in tight spaces around the end zone.

In terms of weather, it seems to be trending more towards just flat-out cold rather than the early projections of snow for this one, but if the forecast oscillates again, his shiftiness would be an amplified asset in any potential sloppy conditions.

Renfrow has scored five times in his last five outings and should be extra motivated here, as the Bengals held him to his second lowest yardage total this season. The Clemson product could find more success this time around, at least in the red zone, as the Bengals have allowed nine touchdowns to wide receivers in their last six games, conceding at least one in each of those contests.

Las Vegas has had a wide receiver score in 13 games this season, with the loss to Cincinnati being one of the only four times it failed to happen. The Bengals allowed 1.8 receiving touchdowns per game at home this season, the league’s sixth most, so it seems unlikely they will replicate that feat.

Meanwhile, the Raiders generated 68.8 percent of their touchdowns through the air in their road games this year, the NFL’s 10th highest rate.

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Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Joe Mixon, somewhat quietly, finished the regular season with the fourth most total touchdowns, scoring 16 times in 16 games. He tallied 13 of those scores on the ground, the NFL’s fourth most rushing touchdowns, adding the other three in the passing game.

Mixon scored in 11 of his 16 games played this season and recorded a touchdown in nine straight outings during one stretch. He produced season highs in receptions in each of his last two games, catching six and then seven balls in those important contests, including one of his receiving scores.

The Bengals actually had six receiving scores by running backs this season and will face a Raiders defense that allowed seven running backs to score in the passing game across seven different games.

Las Vegas could prove the perfect opponent against which we can expect Mixon to reach paydirt. The Raiders have allowed at least one touchdown by a running back in 15 of 17 games this season, including one or more in each of their final nine outings. In fact, the Raiders have allowed 23 touchdowns by opposing running backs this year. They conceded 0.94 rushing scores to backs per game, the league’s sixth highest number, which pairs favorably for us with their 0.41 receiving scores allowed to opponents’ running backs per game, the NFL’s third highest rate.

In the prior meeting with Las Vegas, a convincing Cincinnati victory, Mixon ran the ball a season high 30 times, reaching the end zone twice. He also scored in six of his eight home games this season, piling up 10 of his 16 touchdowns in those contests.

With this game expected to produce a considerable number of points, you would have to imagine he will need to cross the goal line again here if the Bengals expect to advance.

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