Despite the Toronto Blue Jays nipping at their heels, the New York Yankees remain on course to win the AL East.
By Bryan Pol
Heading into Friday’s game on an 11-game winning streak, undefeated since their acquisition of superstar shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, and with newly acquired ace David Price on the mound, the Jays’ chances of extending their divisional lead and their winning streak to twelve was quite certain.
Only the Yankees scored thrice on David Price, mustering eleven hits over the ace’s 7 1/3 shaky innings.
Down 3-1 in the eighth after a Chase Headley ground rule double, which resulted in Price’s departure with two men still on (Price would be responsible for both), Carlos Beltran belted an Aaron Sanchez offering over the wall for a three-run homer, enough to preserve a 4-3 win and the Yankees’ place atop the AL East once again.
Over the weekend, Masahiro Tanaka would add a complete game gem on Saturday, and although young star Luis Severino pitched well on Sunday, the Yankees could not manage any more than one run against Drew Hutchison, he of the 5.06 ERA, and would leave Toronto with a slim 1/2 game lead in the division.
Given the state of the lineup (the Yankees entered 2015 with Alex Rodriguez not having faced major league pitching in over a year and Mark Teixeira battling an assortment of wrist-related woes) and the uncertainty of the rotation beyond Tanaka (whose elbow remained a ticking time bomb in light of a slightly torn UCL in his elbow that would not require Tommy John surgery), New York was projected by many to finish fourth, if not last, in the AL East behind the revamped Boston Red Sox, the now perennially contending Baltimore Orioles, and the Jays.
[mc4wp_form id=”11262″]The Red Sox, despite their acquisitions of Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez to bolster its lineup, failed to reacquire former ace Jon Lester, whom they traded at last year’s deadline, and are relying on a slew of number three and four starters in the rotation. As a result, they sit in last place in the division, tucked six games behind the Tampa Rays, still reeling over the departure of their beloved manager Joe Maddon.
The Orioles have endured tepid results from its rotation, and despite the returns of catcher Matt Wieters and third baseman Manny Machado, and great showings from first baseman Chris Davis and centerfielder Adam Jones, Baltimore boasts a middling offense that leaves them four-games shy of the divisional lead.
Thanks to some stellar campaigns from the likes of A-Rod, Teixeira, Brett Gardner, and Jacoby Ellsbury, the Yankees, on August 17, remain in first by a mere half-game. Despite their recent shortcomings (a sweep last weekend at the Stadium against Toronto and a poor showing in Cleveland last week), the Yankees remain on course to maintain the lead in the American League East.
Here are five reasons why the Yankees will hold on to their divisional lead and enter the postseason for the first time since 2012.
5. Young ace in the making Luis Severino
The Yankees, for the first time since Andy Pettitte, have an ace-in-the-making that is a product of its farm system in the young Luis Severino, regarded by some as a Pedro Martinez-like starter. While the likes of Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes never panned out for the Yankees, Severino, up with the big club a year earlier than expected in light of Michael Pineda’s elbow woes and the failures of one-time ace CC Sabathia, has performed quite well in his three starts with New York, a team in the throes of a heated pennant race. Although he is 0-2 with a no decision in his three starts, Severino has managed a 3.18 ERA with 18 strikeouts in 17 innings behind two plus pitches in his moving, mid-90s fastball and a dropping changeup that is as polished as his nasty four-seamer. His nine strikeouts on Sunday, in the midst of his second straight quality start, came against a formidable Jays’ lineup that is MLB’s best.
[su_youtube_advanced url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGd8HSj6TYs”]Severino has shown moxie and confidence worthy of keeping his spot in the rotation, and given general manager Brian Cashman’s promise that the Yankees will not be limiting his innings or pitch counts, the young Dominican star is available for a playoff run that will heat up in August and September.
Severino, behind Tanaka, Pineda (when he returns), Nathan Eovaldi, and Ivan Nova, will only need to serve as the Yankees’ fifth starter (or sixth, if the Yankees do not feel up to inserting a struggling Sabathia into the bullpen), and in facing competition lesser than his ace potential, Severino should start racking up wins, with his first likely to come against the Indians this upcoming weekend.
4. Current ace Masahiro Tanaka
Shut down last year for all of August and the better parts of July and September in light of a slight tear in his UCL, the Yankee ace by way of Japan had a stellar season in 2014, putting together a 13-5 record behind a 2.77 ERA, 138 ERA+, and 141 strikeouts in 136 1/3 innings. The Yankees considered surgery multiple times in December and in spring training, but Tanaka put up enough of an effort to keep his place atop the Yankee rotation.
In 2015, Tanaka is striking out batters at a lower rate (8.3 K/9 IP in 2015 as opposed to 9.3 in 2014), and despite a lower WHIP (1.01 in 2015 to 1.06 in 2014), he is stringing together a relatively average season (his ERA+ is 109; an average player would produce a 100 ERA+) with a 9-5 record and a 3.56 ERA, which leads Yankees’ starters (figure dependent on innings pitched).
[su_youtube_advanced url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZcVf2bXLs4″]Tanaka, though, would save his best start of the season for Saturday, with his club battling the red-hot Blue Jays, the Yankees’ biggest threat to claim the AL East. In a complete game, Tanaka gave up only one run and five hits, striking out eight, remarkable considering his league-leading competition in the Jays’ formidable lineup.
In Tanaka’s last three starts in August, he is 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA, with opponents only managing a .181 batting average against him. Given the state of his elbow, the numbers and performance are promising, and it appears as though Tanaka has left the Tommy John threats long behind him.
3. They are the Bronx Bombers again
Consider the Yankees’ offensive output in 2015: they are second in the American League in runs (551), SLG (.429), OPS (.752), total bases (1719), and third in homers (156). By many standards, the Yankees boast a lineup (+63 in run differential) that is arguably the second best in the AL behind their rivals, the Toronto Blue Jays.
[su_youtube_advanced url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOGKCvFpgXo”]The Yankees have a resurgence in Mark Teixeira and a rejuvenated Alex Rodriguez to thank for this production, with the tandem responsible for 55 home runs, 142 RBI, 121 runs, and a collective .894 OPS. Additionally, Teixeira alone has a .915 OPS and A-Rod has eclipsed a great many milestones in his humbling and redemptive campaign. The Yankees have speed and pop in Gardner and Ellsbury (with 30 steals and 17 homers), a nice catching tandem in Brian McCann (20 homers and 69 RBI) and John Ryan Murphy (hitting .282), better-than-expected output from shortstop Didi Gregorious, a young man expected to complete the tall task of replacing the legendary Derek Jeter, and consistency from third baseman Chase Headley.
Carlos Beltran, hitting .268 with 13 homers in only 349 at-bats, his biggest, a monster three-run shot to solidify a Yankee win on Friday, is beginning to show signs of his former self, evidenced by his having hit three homers in the last four games, his latest, a game-tying, two-run shot to eventually force extras in a 8-7 Yankee win on Monday night.
When the roster expands to 40 men in September, the Yankees will call on future first baseman Gregory Bird, forced to spell Teixeira on Monday night after he fouled a pitch off his leg, and leading off the tenth inning with a double, his first at Yankee Stadium, and second baseman Rob Refsynder, a young man who already showed promise in striking his first major league home run in Fenway earlier in the season.
While not Murderers’ Row, the Yankee lineup is back to support its strong rotation and extraordinary relief corps.
2. The schedule works in the Yankees’ favor
Left on the Yankee schedule are two ten-game home stands and an eight-game home stand, with seven more games against Toronto and six more contests against Baltimore, their biggest threats to overtake them in the division. These thirteen games will be crucial in the Yankees working to distance themselves from the Jays and Orioles in pursuit of another AL East division crown.
[su_youtube_advanced url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ne1kL4XaOqY”]While the remaining competition is quite stout (the Yanks will face the Astros, Twins, and Mets, the former two teams both at home), the Bombers will have the chance to face inferior teams like the Rays, White Sox, Braves, and Red Sox over the course of twenty games, fourteen of them coming at the Stadium.
On Thursday, the Yankees will begin a four-game set against the Indians, looking to avenge the three-game series they dropped in Cleveland last week. In this series, New York will have much to play for in celebration of Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte, who receive their plaques at Monument Park on Saturday and Sunday respectively.
In 2015, the Yankees are 32-21 at home, taking full advantage of playing in a hitter-friendly park by hitting 81 homeruns in just 55 games, all to the tune of a .793 OPS, nearly 80 points better than their output on the road.
A considerable helping of home cooking should do the Bombers well down the stretch.
1. Their vaunted bullpen
Yankee fans have longed for a setup/closer tandem in the mold of Mariano Rivera and John Wetteland for quite some time, and they most certainly have it with Dellin Betances setting up Andrew Miller.
Miller, with 26 saves and a 2.20 ERA, has allowed only 22 hits in 41 innings pitched this season, striking out 61 batters in those 41 innings, putting together a minuscule WHIP of 0.88. Betances, who spelled Miller while he recovered from a forearm tightness ailment that sidelined him for a month, accumulated 7 saves of his own, with a 1.19 ERA and 0.85 WHIP who, over 60 2/3 innings pitched, has struck out an ungodly 96 batters, good for a 14.2 strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate. His ERA+ (an ERA figure that accounts for ballparks) is a blistering 328. Betances has managed a WAR of 3.0, the best of any Yankee pitcher, starter or reliever.
[su_youtube_advanced url=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ieS_BYYsQAo”]The Yankees also rely on Chasen Shreve and Justin Wilson in relief (with a 1.96 and 2.55 ERA respectively), with both combining to strike out 93 batters over 88 1/3 innings and a collective 177 ERA+. The Yanks also have options at long relief in Adam Warren when the rotation is at full strength.
With Tanaka, Nova, Pineda, and Severino capable of throwing six innings plus in their starts, the Yankees can shorten the game with the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings capably handled by an exemplary bullpen.
New York certainly has the majors’ best band of relievers, an enviable commodity that could end up costing playoff hopefuls like the Twins, Rangers, and Dodgers in the long run. Such a luxury may only get stronger at the waiver deadline should Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman come to the Bronx in support of the Yankees’ best piece that gives them a huge advantage over the Jays and Orioles in pursuit of the AL East crown, which would be their unprecedented nineteenth in franchise history.