Which Freddy Peralta will Yankees get in Game 2?

The 2026 campaign was a tale of two baseball seasons for veteran righty Freddy Peralta, who will toe the slab Monday evening when his Tampa Bay Rays face the New York Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS.

The first season, oddly enough, started in New York when the Milwaukee Brewers traded Peralta to the Mets in January. This reunited Peralta with Mets team president and former Brewers executive David Stearns. The Mets needed an ace at the top of their rotation, and Peralta finished Top 5 in NL Cy Young voting a year ago. It was a perfect fit on paper.

Then, Peralta’s second season began on August 2. The same New York Mets that paid a pretty prospect penny for him traded Peralta to the Rays. He was struggling, the Mets were en route to an eventual last-place finish, so Stearns shed the salary.

It proved a much-needed change of scenery for Peralta, who struggled in New York from Opening Day. He went 5-9 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 22 Mets starts.

Cut to Tampa Bay and pitching coach/guru Kyle Snyder? Freddy Peralta was suddenly back in Brewers ace form, posting a 3.25 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in ten starts.

The question presents itself: Which version will show up in Game 2 as the Yankees counter with likely Cy Young winner Cam Schlittler on the mound? Keeping in mind that the Rays won Game 1 on Saturday, but only 1-0 and on the back of eight one-hit innings by Drew Rasmussen.

It’s hard to say. Peralta faced the Yankees in the Queens leg of the Subway Series back on May 17 and…wasn’t great. He gave up three runs on two hits in five innings, striking out four and walking six in a game the Mets eventually won in extra innings.

This is largely the reality of Freddy Peralta, even in his few years as the Brewers’ ace. The stuff and the talent were there, but walks were continually an issue. It thus wasn’t uncommon to see him gas out around the five-inning mark.

Well, Snyder seems to have unlocked something in Tampa Bay. Peralta only averaged 2.4 walks per nine innings (BB/9) after the trade compared to 3.8 as a Met. As a result, Peralta was able to work into the sixth inning in seven of those ten starts.

But that doesn’t mean Peralta’s brief Rays tenure was a match made in trade heaven. Far from it. He was actually 0-2 with a 7.17 ERA in his first four starts.

But in those last six? Peralta went 5-0 with a stellar 0.79 ERA, and his FIP was 2.78. Not exactly gross overachieving…but it is dumb luck to the point of being disgusting. Seriously, Freddy Peralta is on enough of a lucky streak that he could easily turn a profit playing blackjack at the Bellagio.

Sure, those counting numbers are pretty over that stretch, but not because Peralta made some grand adjustment that made him a new shutdown ace. Rather, he’s really just been incredibly blessed by the BABIP gods. As in batting average on balls in play. We often use this stat on the hitting side to measure how lucky or unlucky certain players are with the bat.

But on the pitching side, BABIP measures an opposing team’s batting average against a pitcher whenever contact is made. No strikeouts, no walks, only making contact and putting the ball in play. The league average usually hovers around .300, and this season’s was .291.

In his final six starts of the season, Freddy Peralta posted a BABIP of .191. He can thank his outfielders for that. Chandler Simpson, Jonny DeLuca, and Victor Mesa Jr. posted a combined +21 fielding run value (FRV). Add veteran Cedric Mullins to the mix, and that goes up to +31.

The Rays’ starting infield, by comparison, are far less skilled with the glove. Their combined FRV is -13, with MVP candidate Junior Caminero looking particularly rough with a -6 at third base.

The Yankees’ plan for Game 2, aside from Schlittler shoving, is thus not much different than any other playoff game. Make Peralta throw pitches and, ideally, allow some walks. Then, swing big and hope the Rays’ outfield gloves don’t run everything down.

It’s a must-win Game 2 for the Yankees before the series shifts back to the Bronx. They’re a -126 favorite on NY sports betting apps, so grab a DraftKings promo code if you’re feeling confident. Urgency is key after getting one-hit and losing 1-0 in Game 1.