Stick a fork in him, Kodai Senga is officially done and cooked

Sorry, Mets fans, but the Kodai Senga experiment seems to be all but over.

Tuesday was just the latest sad story in the Greek tragedy that has become Senga’s Mets tenure. The veteran righty came out shaky in Cincinnati, issuing two walks in the first inning before Sal Stewart took him deep for a three-run homer. He looked more settled after getting Nathaniel Lowe to line out and fanning Eugenio Suárez, but then Spencer Steer launched a solo shot.

Tyler Stephenson struck out to finally end the inning but, to quote Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay (Sorry, Mets fans, nothing personal), the damage was done. Four runs in the first inning was enough for the Reds to basically cruise to a 5-3 win.

All in all, it wasn’t a great night for Senga in his first start after missing weeks with a sore lower back. Stewart and Steer’s home runs, in a cruel twist of fate, were the only hits he allowed in four innings. But four walks overshadow five strikeouts and four runs allowed.

Senga took the loss and is now 0-5 with a 9.00 ERA for the season. The last-place Mets sit 15 games behind the first-place Braves they practically manhandled over the weekend.

What happened to Kodai Senga? Where’s the once infamous “Ghost Fork” pitch that stymied hitters? Other teams can take the Ghostbusters off of speed-dial, their services clearly aren’t needed.

Jokes involving 1980s comedies aside, Senga’s decline has been fairly shocking. Now 33, he’s in the fourth season of a five-year, $70 million he signed after 11 years with the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. He posted a 2.98 ERA as a Mets “rookie” in 2023, inducing ground balls at a healthy 44.7% rate. He struck out more than ten hitters per nine innings. Walks were a problem at more than four per nine innings, but Senga’s MLB potential was still promising.

It’s all been downhill since. Senga missed the first half of 2024 with shoulder trouble, only to strain his calf in his first start back. He only made sporadic playoff appearances in October.

That makes his 2025 look even crueler in context. Senga had a 1.39 ERA in the first half before injuring his hamstring, only to fall off a cliff after the All-Star Break. Senga posted a 6.56 ERA in eight starts before being sent to the minors.

Cut to today, and nothing under the hood indicates any upside for Kodai Senga. He can’t blame bad luck. At all. His xERA, FIP, and xFIP are all north of 5.00. Not exactly a shock, given his ground ball rate (GB%) is an awful 26.9% and his .344 BABIP.

Of course, Senga hasn’t helped himself by issuing 6.38 walks per nine. Even stranger, per FanGraphs, his fastball velocity is actually up at 96.1 mph compared to 94.7 mph in 2025. What’s the actual problem?

The answer, again, lies in his Plus-stats. His Stuff+, which measures everything on his pitches from movement to spin to angles and more, is at 97 and below the baseline average of 100. Senga’s Location+, which measures his zone command, is even scarier at 91. Pitching+, or his in-game decision-making, is 94.

Kodai Senga has done more than simply lose the strike zone. His pitches have lost their movement, and his 101 Stuff+ in 2023 indicates that maybe they didn’t move much anyway? His Pitching+ doesn’t mean he’s an idiot, nor a head case. It might just be a matter of Senga watching his game film and doing a better job sequencing his pitches.

But even then, would it matter? Senga is now 33 and not exactly young by pitching standards. The Mets could try trading him, but can they afford to? New York desperately needs pitching and might even need to trade ace Freddy Peralta as well. Clay Holmes is out recovering from a broken leg. Nolan McLean looks human at last.

Now add that Kodai Senga, for all his faults, posted a 4.00 ERA in four minor league rehab starts. He only allowed six walks in 18 innings and opposing hitters only hit .224 against him.

But does that mean that Senga has some gas left in the tank? Even if he does, it’s a limited supply. The best the Mets can hope is for Senga to rediscover his control and hope it lasts either through the season or his contract.