By the numbers, the Yankees are doing just fine

Yankees fans are in a bad way whenever the team underperforms, especially if that includes losing two out of three to the crosstown rival New York Mets. Just as happened to the Bronx Bombers over the weekend. The team was one out away from a 6-3 victory, David Bednar’s first pitch to Tyrone Taylor was a hung curveball, cue game-tying three-run home run, Mets eventually win in extras.

The loss kept New York in second place, now three games behind the first place Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees have lost seven of ten and are surely looking forward to a weeklong homestand, kicking off Monday with an ALDS rematch against the reigning AL champs, the Toronto Blue Jays. Add the Rays visiting over the weekend, and feel fans’ collective blood pressure rise.

Well, brace yourselves, dear readers. Because here comes a take that will make some look at their screen like it’s just solved world hunger:

The New York Yankees are going to be just fine.

First off, this has become typical of the Aaron Boone Yankees every season. At some point between May and August, there’s a “June swoon” of sorts, or “midsummer slump” as some might say. For some reason or another, this is when the Yankees’ bats just fall asleep and the bullpen just can’t get the job done. Sunday was only Bednar’s second blown save of the season—he’s converted 10 of 12 chances otherwise—, but fans act as though he’s been garbage all year.

Alright, that’s fair. Looking at his FanGraphs page, Bednar certainly isn’t himself with a 4.95 ERA. His K/9 are down, BB/9 are up, and he just looks streaky. Even for a closer! Remember, closers are largely two-pitch pitchers just as likely to walk a batter as they are to strike him out, and only one pitch is ever working on any given night.

David Bednar is an exception, throwing three: a four-seam fastball, curveball, and his signature splitter. In fact, his splitter has a run value of +2 while his fastball and curveball each sit at -3. What’s going on?

Simple: Bednar’s velocity is down across the board, with his average fastball velocity down a full mile per hour. And yet, he’s still posting a career-best 55.9% ground ball rate (GB%). His expected ERA (xERA) is 2.98. His FIP and xFIP aren’t bad either, 3.30 and 3.12. Bednar has also allowed nearly 20% soft contact, so he’s really just running into bad luck thanks to a .377 BABIP.

Now that we’ve dissected the Sunday loss, what’s actually plaguing the Yankees? Short answer: Nothing really at all. It’s a simple hitting slump like any team goes through in every season. As we all know yet always seem to forget: Baseball is a bell curve. Two extremes with billions of potential outcomes in the middle.

So where does that leave the Yankees? Well, bad as the lineup has been, New York still ranks third in MLB and first in the American League with a 115 wRC+. Their walk rate (BB%) is at 12.1%, best in all of baseball. They lead all teams with 68 home runs. On-base percentage (OBP), slugging percentage, wOBA and xwOBA are all in the Top 10. Now add 237 runs scored to sit atop the AL and fifth among all MLB teams.

The only real knock against the Yankees on offense? Their team strikeout rate (K%) is the seventh-worst in baseball at 23.5%.

But on the pitching side, everything still favors New York. Their 3.29 team ERA ties them with the Brewers for third in baseball and trails only the Braves and the Dodgers. They lead in xERA and third in both FIP and xFIP while sitting at the top in each in the AL. Team GB% is also best in the game at 48.1% with both K/9 and BB/9 in the Top 10.

Some may point to the Yankees’ team batting average being a mediocre .235 and 21st in baseball, and a .275 BABIP doesn’t help. By comparison, Tampa Bay leads the AL with a .258 team batting average and .302 BABIP.

Now that we’ve looked at different numbers and stats from several different angles, what does this all mean? Again, it’s nothing special and the answer will be both surprising and disappointing.

The Yankees are simply hitting into bad luck. Their AL-best 35.7% hard contact rate proves it. There really is only room for positive regression, even if New York’s hitting ceiling only caps at the middle of the pack. All that needs to happen is for bats besides Aaron Judge and Ben Rice to start clicking. Jazz Chisholm Jr. batting .583 in the Subway Series is hopefully a sign of a turnaround, and maybe Trent Grisham and Austin Wells will finally yield some better results soon too.

But even so, that doesn’t take away from the importance of this week. Underperforming at the plate is what cost the Yankees the division last year, and they’re determined to avoid that again. Let’s hope that these deeper metrics start manifesting more on the field soon.