NY Yankees at Boston Red Sox: Brayan Bello, take 3

The New York Yankees started their final series with the Red Sox on a high note Friday with a 4-1 win, and now they’ll face a known Beantown foe on Saturday afternoon.

One day after Luis Gil gave the Yankees six innings of no-hit ball, Boston counters with their own phenom. That would be young righty Brayan Bello who, at 26 and with four seasons under his belt, is about as much of a strikeout pitcher as Gil is a US Park ranger. Instead of leaning on velocity and whiffs, Bello’s go-to pitches are his sinker, sweeper, and a number of breaking pitches.

And considering he’s pitched seven shutout innings against New York not once but twice this season, the Yankees really hope the third time’s the charm.

Time: 4:10 pm ET

TV: YES

Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-155) O/U 8.5

Key Storyline: Can Bronx Bombers beat Bello to bring series home? Despite some growing pains in the first three years of his career, Bello has always owned the Yankees. He owns a 1.95 ERA and is 5-3 in ten career starts versus the Bronx Bombers. He’s tossed sixty innings against them and allowed just two home runs.

Needless to say, if the Yankees are going to defeat Bello, it might take smallball as opposed to the longball.

Pitching matchup: Max Fried (16-5, 3.02 ERA) vs Brayan Bello (11-6, 3.12 ERA). The Yankees’ answer to Bello is their big lefty Fried, who’s finally looking like himself after struggling with a blister earlier on in the summer. Fried is 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA in four starts since allowing seven earned runs (albeit in a win) in St. Louis last month. Fried has also pitched well against Boston this year despite lack of run support, allowing just two runs in two starts with a 1.38 ERA. His unique pitch mix and knack for soft contact could prove a tough matchup against the Sawx.

In turn, though Bello’s ground ball rate (GB%) is 49.1% and he doesn’t give up home runs, he doesn’t allow much soft contact either. Nor is Bello a dominant strikeout pitcher, averaging only 6.72 per nine innings. A .269 BABIP isn’t awful, but could come back to bite him if the Yankees’ batted balls find outfield ground on the regular.

X-Factor: Ben Rice. No Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup means Aaron Judge needs help in the big swing department. Look no further than Rice, the Massachusetts native and former Dartmouth grad now playing for the rival team. Rice has turned in a strong second season, batting .243 with 23 homers and 54 RBI. Imagine what could be if his BABIP was over .261! For context, Rice’s expected batting average (xBA) of .295 is in the stat’s 96th percentile.

Need a ball to be hit hard? Call Rice. His hard hit rate (Hard%), nearly 56%, is in the 98th percentile.

No Big G? No problem! Rice has done a seamless job stepping into the Yankee lineup this season and should keep that up against the Red Sox.

Oh, and he also has a three home run-game against them. Just saying!

Prediction. Both teams are playing with a sense of urgency, and run support’s going to be the name of the game. In this case, I’m going to give this one to Boston in a squeaker. Probably roll the under if you’re on New York sports betting apps, though hitting parlays for Rice and/or Cody Bellinger could also pay out well. Red Sox 5, Yankees 3.