NY Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays: Another home-on-the-road series

The New York Yankees are in a pretty decent position as they enter a two-game series with the Rays in Tampa.

First, the Bronx Bombers just swept the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium, almost exactly three years after being on the receiving end of one from the Cards. The baseball gods have also rewarded the Yankees with losses from Toronto, Boston, and Seattle at the right time. The Yankees are now tied with the Red Sox for second place in the AL East and trail the first place Blue Jays by just five games.

Best of all, this upcoming two-game series with the Rays might as well be a home series. Tropicana Field is still being repaired, so the Rays are still playing at Steinbrenner Field.

As in, the Yankees basically have two home games. On the road.

Time: 7:35 p.m. ET

TV: YES

Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-130), O/U 8.5

Key Storyline: Yankees tune up before key Red Sox series. The Yankees have won three straight and the Rays are in fourth place, 12 games behind the Blue Jays. This means they’ve all but formally punted on the season, and the Yankees should treat these two games for what they are: tuning up ahead of four important games with the Red Sox. The at-bats need to be strong, contact needs to be of high quality, and the pitchers need to get 27 outs as painlessly as possible.

Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodon (12-7, 3.25 ERA) vs Shane Baz (8-9, 4.93 ERA). Three years into his six-year contract, and Carlos Rodon is having the best season of his Yankees career. His underlying metrics show he isn’t overachieving, though he has gotten a bit lucky with a .226 BABIP. The downside is that he has averaged nearly four walks per nine innings, 3.56 BB/9 to be exact.

Baz, contrastingly, has run into bad luck thanks to a .304 BABIP. His underlying metrics suggest his ERA should be in the high 3s instead of close to 5.00. His ground ball rate (GB%) is nearly 48%. He has the tools to catch the Yankees on a bad night, particularly a 107 Stuff+, but still faces headwinds. Baz owns a 4.91 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in five career starts against the Yankees.

X-Factor: Ryan McMahon. The Yankees’ new third baseman came over from Colorado at the trade deadline and has since been…fine? McMahon is batting a clean .250 as a Yankee with a 103 OPS+ and .723 OPS. His defense at the hot corner? An absolute godsend.

McMahon also happens to be a .298 career hitter versus the Rays, and over a solid sample size too: 15 games. The Yankees would love for him to swing a hot bat in Tampa and give the top of the lineup some support.

Prediction: Rodon has stepped up as the Yankees’ true ace this year with Gerrit Cole recovering from Tommy John surgery, and he generally pitches well against the Rays. It’s also hard to believe the Yankee lineup isn’t feeling extra confident after sweeping the lowly Cardinals. Sometimes, a struggling team’s quickest route out of a slump is beating up on another struggling team.

Add Baz’s general struggles against the Yankees, and New York should eke this one out. Take the moneyline and Rodon’s strikeouts over if you’re on New York sports betting apps. Yankees 5, Rays 3.