Mets vs San Francisco Giants Picks & Predictions for Friday Night
Not much went right for the Mets in Thursday night’s series-opening loss at San Francisco.
David Peterson gave up 6 runs and didn’t make it out of the fifth inning in a 7-2 loss that pushed the Mets under .500.
Ah, but tonight is a new night.
Nolan McLean (0-0, 3.60) gets the ball for the Mets in his first career start vs. the Giants. San Francisco counters with Tyler Mahle (0-1, 4.50), who is 0-2 lifetime vs. the Mets.
First pitch is set for 10:15 pm, ET.
Our detailed analysis breaks down Mets and Giants, examines the pitchers and key stats before delivering the best bets tonight.
Mets vs Giants Betting Odds
- Moneyline: Mets -133 / Giants +112
- Runline (Spread): Mets -1.5 (+131) / Giants +1.5 (-157)
- Total (Over/Under): 7.5 Runs (Over -116 / Under -104)
Consensus odds sourced on April 3.
The Mets opened as a -136 moneyline favorite before settling at the current -133 consensus price. Stripping the juice from the market gives the Mets a 54.75% vig-free implied probability to secure the outright win, leaving the Giants with a 45.25% true probability to pull off the upset. The projected total has also seen slight downward movement from an opening line of 8.0 to a flat 7.5 runs, signaling early sharp money backing the starting rotations over the respective lineups.
Tyler Mahle Career Pitching vs Mets
| GS | WL | ERA | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | WHIP | BAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0-2 | 4.00 | 9.0 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 1.56 | .278 |
Mets Hitters vs Tyler Mahle
| Batter | PA | AB | H | HR | RBI | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .143 | .393 |
| MJ Melendez | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .333 |
| Jorge Polanco | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .167 | .333 |
| Luis Robert Jr. | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .250 | .500 |
| Marcus Semien | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .333 |
| Juan Soto | 13 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 2 | .364 | 1.462 |
Mets Hitters vs Active Giants Bullpen
| Batter | PA | AB | H | HR | RBI | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Alvarez | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | 2.000 |
| Brett Baty | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .400 |
| Bo Bichette | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .762 |
| Francisco Lindor | 25 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 5 | .250 | .850 |
| Ronny Mauricio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 |
| MJ Melendez | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .500 |
| Jorge Polanco | 10 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .300 | .600 |
| Luis Robert Jr. | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .250 | .583 |
| Marcus Semien | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | .429 | 1.357 |
| Juan Soto | 22 | 20 | 6 | 3 | 7 | .300 | 1.114 |
| Tyrone Taylor | 11 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 3 | .300 | .964 |
| Luis Torrens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 |
| Mark Vientos | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .333 | 1.000 |
Mets vs Giants Predictions & Best Bets
Moneyline: Giants (+115 at Bet365)
The Mets have stumbled outside of Queens early in the 2026 campaign, managing a 1-3 road record for a meager 25% win rate. Conversely, the Giants have thrived when the market prices them as underdogs, cashing tickets in 66.7% of their games (2-1) in that specific alignment. The Mets’ collective .205 batting average highlights a current inability to beat the shift and consistently manufacture runs, while the Giants are making slightly better contact at .227. Taking the plus-money value on the underdog provides a clear mathematical edge until the Mets prove their lineup can break out of this early-season slump.
Total: Under 7.5 Runs (-104 at FanDuel)
Both pitching staffs have suppressed hard contact effectively, making the Under the optimal analytical play. The Mets bring a stout 3.02 team ERA into this contest, while the Giants own a highly reliable 3.48 mark. Recent situational trends heavily favor a low-scoring outcome. Over their last 10 combined situations, the Mets have hit the Over just 14.3% of the time, while the Giants have cashed the Over at a minor 28.6% clip. With both clubs prone to grounding into inning-ending double plays, expect a tight, pitching-dominated battle.
Top Player Prop Bets for Mets vs Giants
When targeting the prop market, backing proven situational splits offers the highest expected value. Here are the three best player props to anchor your betting card tonight.
Juan Soto – Over 1.5 Total Bases (+112 at DraftKings)
Soto has been the primary offensive catalyst for the Mets, slashing .333 with a .500 slugging percentage while racking up 15 total bases in his first 30 at-bats. He draws a highly exploitable matchup against Giants starter Tyler Mahle, who sports a 4.50 ERA and is allowing a massive .312 opponent batting average along with 11.25 hits per nine innings. Expect Soto to drive a pitch into the gaps and comfortably clear this plus-money threshold.
Luis Arraez – 2+ Total Hits (+180 at DraftKings)
Arraez’s elite bat-to-ball skills make him nearly impossible to strike out. He boasts a .321 average with 9 hits in his initial 28 at-bats this season. Facing Mets starter Nolan McLean—who carries a 3.60 ERA and yields 7.2 hits per nine—Arraez will see plenty of pitches in the strike zone. Backing him to find a hole and record multiple hits is a fundamentally sound, data-backed angle.
For a high-upside swing, Rafael Devers (+442 at DraftKings) is the premier candidate to leave the yard. With his elite barrel rate and an ideal launch angle, taking a flyer on Devers to deposit one into McCovey Cove holds excellent situational value.
Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer. His magazine portfolio includes working as a writer and editor at Baseball America. He has decades of experience leading award-winning coverage of the Major League Baseball and College Baseball.
