Yankees vs Seattle Mariners – Best bets, props & predictions for Tuesday

Seattle cooled off the red-hot Yankees on Monday night. Tonight, Mariners ace Logan Gilbert tries to make it two in a row.

He’ll need some good fortune. First, Yankees ace Max Fried (1-0, 0.00 ERA) also is on the bump tonight after a dominant effort on Opening Day, but also, the Yankees have given Gilbert fits throughout his career. Tonight’s first pitch is scheduled for 9:40 pm, ET, on TBS.

We will break down the starting pitching, analyze the offensive firepower for both dugouts, and uncover the best betting angles to help you successfully navigate the markets for Yankees at Mariners.

Yankees vs Mariners Betting Odds

Here is a breakdown of the current consensus betting odds for this matchup:

• Moneyline: New York Yankees (-112) | Seattle Mariners (-107)
• Runline: New York Yankees -1.5 (+157) | Seattle Mariners +1.5 (-190)
• Total (O/U): 7 (Over -105 / Under -115)

The Yankees enter this matchup as slight road favorites, though their moneyline has shortened slightly from the opening line of -118 down to -112. Stripping the vig from the current market prices gives New York a 50.54% implied win probability, compared to Seattle’s 49.46%. The projected total ticked up to a flat 7 runs after opening at 6.5, with the under currently favored at -115. Bettors looking to back the Yankees on the runline (-1.5) are offered a plus-money payout of +157, while taking the Mariners with the 1.5-run cushion requires laying a steep -190 price.

Yankees vs Mariners Predictions & Best Bets

Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-112 at BetMGM)

New York enters this matchup with a highly profitable 3-1 road record to start the 2026 campaign. Their pitching staff is practically unhittable, boasting a microscopic 0.333 team ERA and an elite 0.7407 WHIP. While Seattle’s offense has managed a solid 0.793 team OPS, they are struggling to string hits together, batting just .208 as a unit. Historically, New York has been a reliable investment in this spot, cashing tickets at a 60.4% clip as a favorite last season. Backing the Yankees on the moneyline offers quantifiable value given their current pitching dominance, with the best current price sitting at -112 at BetMGM.

Pick: Under 7 Runs (-115 at DraftKings)

Both pitching staffs are suppressing runs at an elite level. Along with New York’s 0.333 ERA, Seattle’s arms are pitching to a 2.919 team ERA and a stellar 0.9459 WHIP at T-Mobile Park. With early-season batting averages sitting at just .243 for the Yankees and .208 for the Mariners, avoiding the double play and executing rally-producing at-bats will be exceptionally difficult. Expect a true pitchers’ duel where runs are at an absolute premium, making the Under 7 (-115 at DraftKings) a strong defensive play.

Yankees vs Mariners Top Prop Bets

Giancarlo Stanton – Over 1.5 Total Bases (-141 at Caesars)

Stanton is seeing the ball exceptionally well to start the year. Through 12 at-bats, the veteran slugger is hitting a blistering .500 with a 1.250 OPS. Having already racked up six hits early in the season, Stanton is completely locked in at the plate. While Seattle features a formidable starting rotation, Stanton’s current swing mechanics make backing the over on his total bases a highly favorable mathematical edge. William Hill New Jersey is currently offering the best price on this prop at -141.

Max Fried – Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+102 at DraftKings)

Backing Fried to keep Seattle off the board is a prime situational angle. Across his first 19 innings pitched this season, the Yankees’ ace has maintained a flawless 0.00 ERA. Opposing lineups simply cannot figure him out, managing a microscopic .095 batting average and an elite 0.474 WHIP. With Seattle hitting just .208 as a collective unit, Fried’s absolute command allows him to suppress baserunners and cruise through this matchup without surrendering earned runs. DraftKings is offering excellent plus-money value here, dealing the best odds on the board at +102.

Aaron Judge – Over 1.5 Total Bases (+112 at DraftKings & Caesars)

With Stanton crushing the baseball behind him in the lineup, opposing pitchers are heavily restricted in utilizing the shift and are forced to give Judge pitches to hit. Given the overall offensive ceiling of the Bronx Bombers against a Seattle staff yielding a 2.919 ERA, projecting Judge to barrel up at least one extra-base hit or notch multiple singles provides excellent value. Bettors looking to exploit the middle of New York’s order can find the best odds for this wager at +112, available at both DraftKings and William Hill.

Max Fried vs Seattle Mariners

Max Fried has been excellent vs the Mariners in his career — 3 starts, 0-1 record, 1.59 ERA, 0.765 WHIP, and 18 K in 17.0 IP. His only loss came in 2022 despite allowing just 2 ER.

Logan Gilbert vs the Yankees

Logan Gilbert has struggled vs the Yankees in his career, going 2-3 with a 6.57 ERA in 7 starts.