Against our better judgment, let’s stir the Juan Soto pot again

Well, folks, it’s happened again: We have to talk about Juan Soto.

OK, maybe we don’t have to. It could be I more want to, but that’s not the point.

I’m just a New Yorker trying to enjoy both spring training and the World Baseball Classic fresh off of Team USA winning Olympic gold in hockey. Aaron Judge is captaining Team USA and playing like a boss, per usual. Bonus points for the Knicks being back in the thick of the playoff race, too!

But no, that’s not enough for the sports gods. No, here they go having Juan Soto and Yankees manager Aaron Boone making indirect comments at each other. And because social media is a terrible place, the comments section has been unleashed worse than Charlie Kelly in conspiracy mode.

It. Is. Relentless. To say nothing of the fact that Juan Soto had one of the best seasons of his career last year despite his Mets missing the playoffs.

Meanwhile, let’s have a look at the two overall meaningless comments from both parties here, starting with Soto. Here he is fondly referencing the 2024 season in a postgame interview with MLB Network’s Siera Santos:

Meanwhile, here’s Boone enjoying a rib with WFAN’s resident Mets loudmouth Evan Roberts:

And now, for the infinity-trillionth time for the people on the outer rim of the comments section: Juan Soto is not–

You know what? No, this is what the people apparently want? Okay. Fine. Let’s go ahead and actually assume what everyone on the Yankees side is saying: Juan Soto regrets signing a long-term deal with the Mets and wishes he stayed in the Bronx. FURTHERMORE, let us also assume that on pure numbers alone, even Steve Cohen has limits and the Mets soon find themselves in the Texas Rangers’ position in 2004: Trade Alex Rodriguez or have him hold back the team’s performance and payroll.

An Alfonso Soriano trade later, A-Rod donned the pinstripes.

But first, under what circumstances would the Mets even consider this? Well, looking at Soto’s 15-year, $765 million contract, it could be sooner than we think. Soto is earning nearly $47 million in 2026. That number dips to $42.5 million in ’27, then back up to the near $47 million each of the next two years. At which point, Soto earns a clean $46 million a year for the remaining ten years of his deal.

However, here’s where things get complicated. Soto has an opt-out after 2029, his age-30 season, meaning he can test the market for a potentially bigger contract if he keeps producing well. Moreover, the Mets can void the opt-out by giving Soto a $40 million raise, raising his salary to $50 million a year over the next decade.

Now, consider that Soto’s outfield glove is getting worse. His -13 fielding run value (FRV) last season was the second-worst of his career. Even with a move to left field in 2026, the Mets will soon have no choice but to make him a permanent designated hitter. That’s fine, Edgar Martinez and David Ortiz both made the Hall of Fame as dangerous DHs.

Except neither Ortiz nor Martinez earned anything close to $50 million a year, and we’re in an era where player salaries are, fairly or unfairly, forever scrutinized. And just being a realist about it, the Mets need a lot to go right for them to justify keeping Soto under those circumstances. This means not only Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong stepping up in the rotation, but maybe newly acquired ace Freddy Peralta signing a new deal of his own. Carson Benge needs to be a consistent lineup fixture.

Most important of all, the Mets have to win if they’re going to justify keeping Juan Soto on the payroll. But knowing baseball and what a cruelly funny game she is? An A-Rod/Rangers story seems more likely. And given how the players’ union wouldn’t let Alex Rodriguez restructure his contract in a potential trade to the Red Sox? Don’t count on the Dodgers swooping in and suddenly working their voodoo deferral calculus.

That leaves the Yankees and veteran general manager Brian Cashman, who has done this dance before. It was easy back then, just a straight up deal: Alex Rodriguez for Alfonso Soriano and a player to be named later. It worked because Soriano was a young and exciting power-hitting infielder with one fatal flaw: He struck out too much and didn’t walk enough.

So, the formula’s simple from a player standpoint. It’s MLB’s biggest salary dump, so no prospects change hands. Just a top MLB talent the Yankees can justify parting with for Soto. This is still very much “But it’s Zava” territory.

Money-wise, assuming the Mets or Yankees void the opt-out, let’s just call it a 50-50 split between both teams. The Yankees chip in $25 million a year, the Mets chip in the same.

As for the player the Yankees send over? Well, it remains to be seen. There’s no one player who currently fits that same Soriano mold of immaculate power and gross impatience.

Maybe catcher Austin Wells if he regains his stride? Jasson Dominguez or Spencer Jones? Someone else entirely? It’s too soon to tell. The Rangers gave Alex Rodriguez three years before moving him, so we have to assume the Mets will do the same if this comes to be.

Except…it isn’t! None of this is real, ladies and gentlemen. Just when we thought of the hypothetical when the Yankees never traded for A-Rod. This is simply indulging the Yankees trolls who insist upon insisting that Juan Soto regrets trading River Avenue for Willets Point. Not to mention Soto would clog the Yankees’ payroll too if they brought him back into the fold!

It’s fun to think about at least once a year, but it’s not funny anymore. Juan Soto is a New York Met. He will stay a New York Met…at least for now.