NY Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays: The war for the AL East’s soul

The Yankees would love to forget their last two series with the Blue Jays and in a series this important, they have no choice.

New York last faced the Jays in July and lost two out of three in Toronto, and were also swept clean out of the Rogers Centre in a four-game set June 30-July 3. Forget that the Yankees mostly lost because of a perfect storm of Aaron Judge’s elbow injury, a faulty bullpen, and Anthony Volpe’s defense at shortstop. The lead has shrunk to three games and first place in the AL East within reach.

The New York Yankees know it but we’re going to say it anyway. This weekend? There is no room for careless mistakes.

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

TV: YES

Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-135), O/U 8.5

Key Storyline: Can Yankees finally slay the Jays? The one downside for the Yankees is that even if they sweep Toronto this weekend, they’ll still lose the season series 7-6. That means that in the event of a tie atop the AL East at the end of the season, New York gets bumped down to the Wild Card. We can safely assume that’s barely on the Yankees’ mind, at least in the short-term.

Rather, this is about working good at-bats, making pitches, and playing clean, crisp defense. Don’t worry about getting swept and playing the worst baseball of the season pre All-Star Break. It’s the sprint to the finish line. The playoffs are within reach and so is the division. This weekend, it’s all baseball and all business.

Pitching Matchup: Kevin Gausman (8-10, 3.75 ERA) vs. Cam Schlittler (2-2, 2.61 ERA). Friday’s series opener largely depends on which version of Gausman takes the mound at Yankee Stadium. The veteran righty is either lights-out or getting lit up against the Yankees, owning an 11-10 record and 3.78 ERA in 38 games (32 starts) against the Bombers. This season, he’s faced them three times and gone 1-1 with a 5.52 ERA, including seven innings of one-run ball back on July 21.

However, though Gausman has managed a 3.11 ERA since July 1, the rookie Schlittler continues to pitch well for New York. He posted a 1.60 ERA and 3.14 FIP in August and is fearless with velocity that touches 100 mph. Schlittler has also shown growing confidence in his slider and curveball.

What’s more, Schlittler’s second career MLB start came against the Jays in Toronto on July 22. He pitched five innings of two-run ball with three walks and strikeouts each in a no-decision. His primary goal tonight is to keep those walks down.

X-Factor: Aaron Judge. Aaron Judge is a .301 career hitter against to Toronto and could very well win his third MVP trophy despite Cal Raleigh’s breakout year. The downside is that Judge’s elbow is clearly still sore. He’s only batting .242 since returning from the injured list. The OPS is strong at .888 and he’s taking his walks, but the usual Judge confidence just isn’t there.

Granted, there have been small signs of Judge turning things around. He’s batting .303 in his last ten games with three home runs and is making throws from the outfield in pregame warmups. A big game from him on Friday would give the Yankees some much-needed early momentum.

Prediction. It’ll be interesting to see which version of the Blue Jays arrives in the Bronx this weekend. Toronto lost two of three to the MLB-best Milwaukee Brewers before taking two of three in Cincinnati. However, their arms visibly struggled against the Reds’ feisty lineup. New York’s big bats aren’t exactly a cooldown lap.

However, if you’re browsing New York sports betting apps or New Jersey online casinos, this might best be a parlay game. Bet on George Springer and Cody Bellinger to get at least a hit each. Maybe two or more total bases for Springer. The over on Cam Schlittler’s strikeouts could also be a good pick. But in terms of a score? Yankees and the over in a squeaker seems appropriate. Yankees 7, Blue Jays 6.