NY Yankees at Houston Astros: Rodon gets ball for rubber game

A day after yet another rough Devin Williams outing out of the bullpen, the New York Yankees can win their series with the Houston Astros when Carlos Rodon takes the mound at Daikin Park.

Whether it was the bullpen or bad umpiring, the Yankees should be ready to move on from Wednesday’s 8-7 loss. Forget wasting a solid outing from Will Warren and falling short in a late rally. Another Toronto win means the gap is once again 3.5 games in the AL East and 10 games of this hard stretch remain.

Will the Yankees keep swinging hot bats in the final sprint to the playoffs?

Time: 7:40 p.m. ET

TV: YES, MLB Network

Betting Line: Yankees -1.5 (-145), O/U 8.5

Key Storyline: Yankees seek to shake off bad loss, worse umpiring. Two things can be true, so let’s get both established now: Aaron Boone left Devin Williams in for one batter too long, and Brian Walsh did a terrible job umpiring behind the plate.

Granted, it’s understandable why Boone left Williams in for one more batter. Not only had Williams, a former All-Star closer despite a bad year, struck out Ramon Urias, but No. 9 hitter Taylor Trammell is a .176 career hitter. But even so, Williams had already walked two and also allowed a double, and clearly didn’t have his best stuff working.

In Thursday’s rubber game, there’s no room for careless mistakes like that, especially if the umpire is having as bad a game as Walsh.

Pitching Matchup: Carlos Rodon (15-7, 3.18 ERA) vs Cristian Javier (1-1, 3.38 ERA). Working in the Yankees’ favor is Rodon going full ace mode in Gerrit Cole’s Tommy John absence this year. The big lefty has a 42.4% ground ball rate (GB%) thanks to fully embracing his changeup alongside his fastball and slider. He has an overall pitching run value (PRV) of +25, and is also 4-0 with a 2.51 ERA in 11 career starts against Houston.

Javier, on the other hand, is only making his fifth start in his return from Tommy John surgery. He’s struggled with walks and has had a pair of short outings, but tossed six innings of no-hit ball against the Angels in a no-decision on August 29. He owns a 1.99 ERA in six starts versus New York, so look for him to be locked in and focused early.

X-Factor: Aaron Judge. Judge has hit .300 in the series thus far, which is better than expected considering he’s a .204 career hitter against Houston. However, all he’s really done this series is hit three singles. New York needs him to start swinging for the fences and not just getting on base for his teammates.

Forget the lack of a World Series ring. Aaron Judge needs to solve the Houston Astros before he solves October.

Prediction. In what’s surely going to be another tight game, this one should be one the Yankees barely eke out. The bullpen is rested enough that Boone should be fine if he avoids Williams, plus Rodon’s track record in Houston speaks for itself. And let’s not forget, as we mentioned, Javier is only just back from Tommy John.

Thus, if you’re on New York sports betting apps or New Jersey online casinos, betting is simple. Take the Yankees, the under, and the over for Rodon’s strikeouts. Yankees 4, Astros 2.