Houston Astros at NY Yankees: The blood rivalry is back

Trading for Juan Soto ahead of the 2024 season came with an unexpected perk for the New York Yankees: suddenly owning the hated rival Houston Astros. On the back of Soto hitting .529 across the series, the Bronx Bombers opened the season with a four-game sweep in Houston. A month later, New York took two of three from the Astros in the Bronx.

Add winning the Pennant, and the Yankees finally won a round. Furthermore, they will look to secure another when the ‘Stros visit Yankee Stadium this weekend.

However, this time will be different. The Astros hold a 1.5 game over second-place Seattle in the AL West. The Yankees, on the other hand, are in the midst of an awful collapse and have dropped to third in the AL East, 6.5 games behind the Blue Jays. Juan Soto won’t bail them out this time, he’s now swinging his bat for the crosstown rival New York Mets. Worse yet, Aaron Judge is limited to DH as he recovers from an elbow strain.

The Yankees have no choice but to play better, starting now, if they see a deep playoff run in the future.

Time: 7:05 p.m. ET

TV: Apple TV+

Betting Line: Yankees +1.5 (-110), O/U 7.5

Key Storyline: Can rivalry series jumpstart the Yankees? Murphy’s Law has smothered the Yankees’ clubhouse to some extent since June. Everything that could possibly go wrong has gone wrong. Nothing is working and, if we’re being completely honest, this is no different than what plagued the team all season long in 2021 and ’23. The players simply aren’t playing up to standard nor expectation.

This team needs a shot in the arm beyond trade deadline acquisitions that have thus proven hit-or-miss. Could showing up angry and having, to quote former outfielder Aaron Hicks, some “f**k you” be enough to win Friday’s game and the series?

Pitching Matchup: Hunter Brown (9-5, 2.47 ERA) vs. Cam Schlittler (1-2, 4.58 ERA). This will be an interesting watch tonight because a few years from now? This could be a potential ace-on-ace matchup. Brown throws six pitches, leaning mostly on his blazing fastball and heavy sinker before mixing in a knuckle curve, changeup, cutter, and slider. He’s a majority ground ball pitcher who strikes hitters out and also ranks sixth in MLB in soft contact rate (Soft%) at 19.6%.

Schlittler, meanwhile, is still very much learning how to pitch on the major league level. Like any rookie who comes up from the minors throwing gas, he leans hard on this fastball at about 57.1% usage. That’s followed by his slider, which he throws far less at 21.6%. Schlittler is also working on a sweeper, curveball, and sinker, but is clearly most comfortable throwing his fastball. That could come back to bite him against a tough Astros lineup, even with the team’s leading home run hitter Isaac Paredes on the injured list. Houston will also be without dangerous lefty slugger Yordan Alvarez.

It doesn’t matter if Houston’s offense is fairly middling this year and only a shade above average. This lineup has always hunted fastballs. New York could best counter that by being equally aggressive against Brown.

X-Factor: Aaron Judge. If Yankees fans really want an answer as to why the struggles seem worse as of late? Easy answer: Judge wasn’t hitting well even before his injury. He’s since been activated and while his overall health is still a question mark, we do know he’s never hit the Astros well. Judge is a .198 career hitter against Houston.

That simply cannot be the case this weekend. Judge is the V8 engine of the Yankee lineup. When he’s hitting well, so do his teammates. Hitting, as any former player will say, is contagious. The Yankee captain needs to study the pitching matchup, figure out his mechanics in BP, and lead his team.

Nothing more, nothing less.

Prediction: I’d be tempted to swing this New York’s way if anyone else was pitching. But between Schlittler’s inexperience and Brown’s dominance, this sounds like a long game just waiting to happen. Even if the Yankees work great at-bats, playing from behind will do them in again. Houston should be aggressive versus Schlittler’s fastball-heavy approach, so betting the Astros and the over on New York sports betting apps or New Jersey casinos would be smart.