NY Mets at LA Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw, Round 2

After a grinder of an extra-innings win on Monday, the New York Mets seek to up their win streak to five when they send Tylor Megill to the mound on Tuesday.

The defending champion Dodgers will counter with future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, who made his second start of the season versus the Mets at Citi Field back on May 23. He pitched two no-hit innings with a walk and a strikeout before a rain delay ended his night early.

Kershaw has since followed up with a strong start, so the Mets had better be ready.

Time:

TV: TBS, SNY

Run Line: Mets +1.5, O/U 9

Pitching Matchup: Tylor Megill (4-4, 3.52 ERA) vs Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 4.91 ERA). As we just mentioned, Kershaw looked strong in his last start against Cleveland on May 28 despite LA’s eventual 7-4 loss. In a no-decision, the big lefty allowed one run and scattered six hits in five innings with two walks and three strikeouts. He faces the Mets again tonight, and he’s 11-0 with a clean 2.00 ERA against them for his career.

On the Mets’ side, Megill has fallen back down to earth. He was 1-2 with a 5.96 ERA in May, burned by 15 walks in 22.2 innings. The aggressive Dodgers lineup will eat him alive if he’s not hitting his spots and making his pitches.

X-Factor: Mets bullpen. One of the Mets’ weak points is indeed their relief pitching, whose collective 4.03 ERA sits 17th in MLB. That’s not bad, but the Mets held a 2-1 lead going into the ninth inning before handing the ball to Edwin Diaz. What’s more, Shohei Ohtani’s solo homer in the seventh inning came off of Max Kranick, not starter Paul Blackburn.

Cut to Diaz’s blown save in the ninth. Then Jose Castillo nearly coughing it up in the tenth after Andy Pages’ RBI single cut the Mets’ lead to 4-3. Cue Jose Butto finally getting the last two outs.

The bullpen gave a lot on Monday and if Megill keeps struggling, it will again.

Prediction: Stay with me on this one as you browse New York sports betting apps: pick the Mets moneyline and a few hitting parlays. A combination of Francisco Lindor, Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman should be fine. That said, why the Mets?

In a nutshell, Kershaw’s underlying metrics show some luck. His 4.91 ERA is paired with an expected ERA of 6.38. Kershaw also hasn’t allowed any soft contact in three starts and his Stuff+ is a subaverage 95.

If the Mets can keep the ball in the air, they can really make Kershaw’s age show. As for the score, expect a squeaker. Mets 6, Dodgers 5