Expectations for the 2023 season were high for the Mets and Yankees. Instead of watching them both return to the postseason and compete for a World Series, they’ll be watching the playoffs from home in October.
That’s not at all what we thought would be happening when they took the field on Opening Day. Prior to the regular season getting underway, Baseball Prospectus liked the odds of both New York teams meeting in the Fall Classic.
But were they off by a year? Is history setting us up for a Subway Series rematch in 2024?
Baseball is a game that’s rich in history, statistics, and patterns. While the game has been around for 150-plus years, we’ve seen history repeated multiple times. If we put the two below patterns together, it means the Mets and Yankees will reach the Fall Classic next year.
(I’m obviously joking around here, so play along. It’s been a long and disappointing year, and we could use any bit of 2024 positivity heading into the offseason.)
Pattern for the Mets
Manager Buck Showalter steered the Mets to a 101-win campaign in his first season. It’s been a much different story in 2023. As they begin a series on Tuesday against the Miami Marlins, New York is 71-85.
This is just the fourth time in history that a team has produced a losing record just one year after recording at least 100 wins. But the last two times it happened (Reds in the early ’70s, Cardinals in the late ’80s), they bounced back in similar ways.
The ‘72 Reds and ‘87 Cardinals both won the pennant, so the ‘24 Mets have that going for them. https://t.co/J7uTDUdnUt
— Tim Britton (@TimBritton) September 22, 2023
One year of disappointment sandwiched between 100 wins and a trip to the World Series? Yes, please.
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Pattern for the Yankees
We shared the below post on Monday to show indisputable proof that the Yankees would win the World Series next season:
Wait a minute
2007: Yankees player wins MVP
2008: Yankees miss playoffs
2009: Yankees win World Series2022: Yankees player wins MVP
2023: Yankees miss playoffs
2024:NEXT YEAR IS THE YEAR LETS GOOOOO
— Addison (@YankeeWRLD) September 24, 2023
Here’s what we said about this:
Of course, that 2007 American League MVP Award went to third baseman Alex Rodriguez. In Joe Girardi’s first year as manager, the Yankees went 89-73 in 2008, missing the playoffs in the final year of the old Yankee Stadium.
However, that led to a big offseason of spending. It included big-money deals for CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett. Those moves, among others, led to a World Series win over the Phillies.
As we can see above, we’re two-thirds of the way through this pattern again. Aaron Judge won the 2022 American League MVP Award, and the Yankees were just eliminated from postseason contention over the weekend. All that’s left is to win the World Series!
So, there we have it, folks. The 2023 MLB season was full of pain, disappointment, and not meeting expectations for both the Mets and Yankees. But, as they say, a setback is just a set-up for a comeback.
Seriously, though — it’d be pretty incredible for these patterns to continue. This gives us something to dream about and manifest as we wait for pitchers and catchers to report next February.
You can reach Matt Musico at matt.musico@xlmedia.com. You can follow him on Twitter: @mmusico8.
