pete alonso mets
Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Spring training is about to officially start, and MLB’s Opening Day is roughly six weeks away. We’re so close to watching baseball games that matter, but we’re right in the thick of projections season.

We recently talked about Mets- and Yankees-related takeaways from ZiPS’ start-of-spring standings projections. Baseball Prospectus is the next to release its own version, and they’re very kind to both New York teams. In fact, they’re so kind that BP’s PECOTA projections are leaving the door open for a Subway Series this October.

PECOTA and ZiPS both agreed the Mets and Yankees would be at the top of their respective divisions. The same goes for postseason odds and chances of winning the World Series. But when looking at these side-by-side, PECOTA is much more optimistic.

ZiPS is projecting the Yankees to win 89 contests and take home the American League East divisional crown by one game. Baseball Prospectus has the Bombers winning 99 and running away with the division:

yankees pecota standings
via Baseball Prospectus

As for the Mets, ZiPS is predicting 94 wins, which is the same number as the Atlanta Braves. PECOTA — which has loved the Mets in recent years — expects 97 wins and the National League East title for the Amazins.

mets pecota standings
via Baseball Prospectus

What caught my eye when looking at all six MLB divisions was how high the World Series odds are for both the Mets and Yankees. PECOTA tabs just four teams with odds of winning the Fall Classic at better than 10%: both New York teams, the Houston Astros, and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The top two within this group? The Yankees have 17.8% odds of winning it all, while the Mets are second at 12.9%. Just in case you’re wondering, the Astros check in at 12.7% and L.A. is at 12.5%.

Now, projections are far from perfect. PECOTA is certainly a part of that. They’ve picked the Mets to win the NL East plenty of times in recent years, and it hasn’t happened. It also painted a bleak picture for the 2015 Kansas City Royals. They thought the club would win 72 games, yet they finished with 95 victories and a World Series title.

As usual, we take things like this with a grain of salt. But still — it’d be awesome to have a Subway Series for the first time since 2000. Outside of the obvious, there’d be plenty at stake, too.

The Yankees not only haven’t won a World Series since 2009, but they haven’t even participated in the Fall Classic since then. As for the Mets, it’s now approaching 40 years since they last won it all in 1986.

That would be a blast, but to get there, both squads likely need to slay some familiar dragons. For the Bombers, they must figure out a way past the Astros, while the Mets must at least get past the Braves. It’ll be interesting to see how these initial projections change throughout the spring before Opening Day hits on March 30th.

Matt Musico can be reached at and you can follow him on Twitter: @mmusico8.

Matt Musico is an editor for ESNY. He’s been writing about baseball and the Mets for the past decade. His work has been featured on numberFire, MetsMerized Online, Bleacher Report, and Yahoo! Sports.