mets yankees subway series probable pitching matchups
Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

This isn’t how people envisioned the first installment of the 2023 Subway Series to start, now did they? The Mets return home after a depressing 1-5 road trip. While the Yankees are in a much better place overall, they just lost a series to the Red Sox without much offense to offer themselves as Aaron Judge heals on the injured list.

After splitting their four head-to-head matchups last year, this is what the probable pitching matchups look like for this week’s two-game set.

Tuesday at 7:10 p.m. ET: Max Scherzer vs. Luis Severino

Max Scherzer notched his 111th career double-digit strikeout game in his last start against the Atlanta Braves. That ranks third all-time in MLB history. He looked very sharp through his first four innings against the Braves before things began falling apart in the middle innings. In two starts against the Yankees last year, he posted a 2.63 ERA with nine strikeouts in 13.2 innings.

After a solid start to his year, Luis Severino has allowed 11 earned runs over his last nine innings. So, he’ll look to get himself back on track in Queens. He owns a 2.75 career ERA against the Mets but allowed six runs on 12 hits, three walks, and three strikeouts across two starts last season (nine innings).

Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET: Justin Verlander vs. Gerrit Cole

Justin Verlander is firmly on a one-good-start-one-bad-start trend right now. We ultimately need that pattern to cease operations. But if it continues, he’s at least due for a good start against the Bombers after lasting just three innings against Atlanta. In his only regular-season start against the Yankees last year, JV allowed one run on four hits, one walk, and three strikeouts in seven innings.

After allowing 10 earned runs over an 11-inning stretch that spanned two starts, Gerrit Cole looks to be back on track. He’s surrendered three earned runs over his most recent 12 innings of work. Cole actually owns a 6.75 ERA across 30.2 career innings against the Mets. He’s only had one start against them since 2018, though. It happened in 2021 when he allowed four runs on six hits, three walks, and six strikeouts in 3.1 innings.

You can reach Matt Musico at You can follow him on Twitter: @mmusico8.

Matt Musico is an editor for ESNY. He’s been writing about baseball and the Mets for the past decade. His work has been featured on numberFire, MetsMerized Online, Bleacher Report, and Yahoo! Sports.