The 3 Best Bills vs. Chiefs Player Props

01/23/2022

bills chiefs player props — PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

The NFL Divisional Round of postseason action wraps up with a highly anticipated rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game. The Buffalo Bills head to Kansas City for a second time this season and will look for a similar result to the first meeting when these teams met back in October. Each squad cruised through their AFC Wild Card round matchups last weekend, with Buffalo enjoying an extra day of rest and preparation ahead of this one. With no shortage of stars on the field, prop betting markets figure to be popular.

Let’s take a deep dive into the best Bills vs. Chiefs player props picks for this NFL Divisional Round matchup.

Bills vs. Chiefs Player Props Picks

Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Josh Allen put on an absolute clinic last Saturday night in the Bills’ dominating grudge match victory over the New England Patriots, leading his team on a scoring drive every time his team had the football.

Buffalo’s success revolves around the play of its do-it-all quarterback and Allen continually reminds us that he can, truly, do it all. On top of guiding the Bills’ top 10 passing offense, Allen also managed to lead all quarterbacks in rushing yards, eclipsing Jalen Hurts after last week’s contests. In fact, he led all qualifying rushers in yards per attempt, gaining an average of 6.5 yards per run.

Allen finished the regular season as the Bills’ leader in runs of 20 yards or more (9) and was second on the team in rushing attempts and rushing yards. He also finished second in rushing touchdowns with six, which was good for third most among all NFL quarterbacks.

BIG run. Josh Allen with the rushing td pic.twitter.com/fZCxSQc0HB

— Pub Sports Radio ™ (@PubSportsRadio) October 11, 2021

Allen will be facing off against the defense that allowed the most rushing touchdowns by opposing quarterbacks this season. Kansas City conceded seven quarterback rushing scores, including one to Allen in the meeting between these two back in Week 5.

The Chiefs allowed the ninth most quarterback rushing attempts per game (4.3), the ninth highest yards per rush by opposing quarterbacks (4.9), and the eighth most quarterback rushing yards per game (21.6) this season. Kansas City finished 21st against the rush overall, allowing 117.6 yards per game on the ground, and will have to try to stop Buffalo’s sixth ranked rushing attack that boasts 129.9 yards per contest.

In a game of this magnitude against a team showing such weaknesses against the run, look for Allen to continue his late season uptick in rushes per game. Allen ran the ball 12 or more times in three of the team’s final five regular season games. Two of those efforts came on the road against teams that made the playoffs — New England and Tampa Bay. Prior to that stretch, Allen’s next highest rushing attempt total this year came against these Chiefs when he rushed it 11 times for 57 yards and that aforementioned touchdown.

We expect another one against Kansas City here with Allen doing whatever he has to in order to help his team get back to the AFC Championship Game.

Mecole Hardman Under 31.5 Receiving Yards

The Chiefs’ less-featured skill position players have played an important role in the team’s success, especially down the stretch of the regular season and last week’s win over Pittsburgh.

However, Buffalo is not the team against which ancillary guys tend to have a ton of success. Only seven of the Bills’ 17 opponents had multiple wide receivers top this prop’s requirement. Worse still for Mecole Hardman, only two of the Bills’ foes had three wideouts reach that number.

Note: be sure to check out our Rams vs. Bucs player props selections.

Hardman played in every game for the Chiefs this season, ranking third in receptions, targets, receiving yards, and first downs, while finishing fourth on the team in plays of 20 yards or more. Last week he caught all four of his targets for 43 yards, although 41 of those yards came on one catch.

Mecole Hardman has KC in the red zone! #ChiefsKingdom

?: #NYGvsKC on ESPN
?: https://t.co/Ws0sbkS0nd pic.twitter.com/1CEZJutIw2

— NFL (@NFL) November 2, 2021

Hardman faded a bit down the stretch, though, with the final regular season game being the only one in the team’s final nine in which he hauled in more than three catches. He only topped this prop’s number in three of those nine games and did so in just seven of 17 regular season outings, including only three of nine at home. Also worth mentioning, Hardman only reached 32 yards receiving in three of his team’s nine games against opponents who qualified for the playoffs.

Hardman had his biggest game of the season on this field against Buffalo, catching nine of 12 targets for 76 yards. That wasn’t the standard for him at home, however, as he averaged just 37.6 receiving yards per game at Arrowhead Stadium, but 44.4 yards on the road.

Buffalo, the league’s top pass defense, allows just 163 yards per game through the air and should be keyed in on Hardman after he led Kansas City in catches and receiving yards in the first meeting. That’s likely bad news for the University of Georgia product, as the Bills have suffocated most wide receivers they have faced this season.

Opposing wide receivers saw the seventh fewest targets per game (18.4) against Buffalo, but still caught the least passes against per contest (10.8). Wideouts facing the Bills produced fewer receiving yards per game (112.7) than those facing off against any other NFL team, as well as the fewest yards per catch (10.5).

Hardman has proven fumble prone in his young career, losing multiple fumbles this season and gifting a memorable turnover to the Bills in last year’s AFC title game. If he looks at all shaky or puts one on the ground early, look for him to be pushed into obscurity for the rest of the game. Either way, the Bills are good enough at stopping wide receivers that Hardman should have a very difficult time reaching this prop’s number for a second time against the Bills this season.

Jerick McKinnon Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Jerick McKinnon made quite the case for a greater snap count moving forward after his effort last weekend.

It all started with a strong showing in the Chiefs’ regular season finale at Denver where McKinnon rushed five times for 24 yards and caught all three targets in the passing game for 26 more yards and a score. He followed that up with 12 rushes for 61 yards and six catches for 81 yards and another receiving touchdown against the Steelers last Sunday.

With Darrel Williams listed as questionable after a limited practice on Friday and Clyde Edwards-Helaire still working back from his shoulder injury, McKinnon is almost guaranteed to have at least a handful of snaps in this one.

We think the dual threat back has all the tools Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will want on the field as the next man up. McKinnon produced nine first downs last week. As a matter of perspective, both the Cardinals and Eagles had 14 total first downs in the Wild Card round.

The Chiefs woke up.

Jerick McKinnon +270 TD ??

pic.twitter.com/6AQmJ5H6Jw

— Fox Sports PHL Gambler (@foxphlgambler) January 17, 2022

McKinnon should be able to step right into the role that Williams typically fills for Kansas City. Williams caught 47 balls on the season, scoring two receiving touchdowns. Edwards-Helaire added two more receiving scores, making it six touchdown catches by Kansas City backs this season when combined with McKinnon’s recent pair of touchdowns.

Despite being the league’s best scoring defense, the Bills allowed three opposing backs to score receiving touchdowns to go with 14 rushing scores by opposing runners. The latter is actually the 10th most any team allowed to opposing backs this year.

Kansas City backs have tallied at least one touchdown in six straight games, piling up 10 scores in that span. With the Chiefs’ creative play calling around the goal line and McKinnon’s versatile skill set, we believe he will have some chances to find paydirt in what promises to be a high scoring affair.