49ers cowboys player props

The San Francisco 49ers edged into the NFL Playoffs by defeating the Rams in overtime in Los Angeles last Sunday. Winners of seven of their last nine, the 49ers will now head to Dallas to take on a Cowboys team that enters with the pressure of great expectations. Notably, this is the only NFL Wild Card game that does not feature a rematch of a game or games from the regular season, although this playoff pairing certainly evokes memories of the great postseason battles between these two franchises in the 1990s.

Let’s take a deep dive into the best 49ers vs. Cowboys player props picks for this NFL Super Wild Card Weekend matchup.


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49ers vs. Cowboys Player Props Picks

Jimmy Garoppolo Longest Completion Over 39.5 Yards

The San Francisco 49ers use the league’s seventh best rushing attack to set up plays downfield in the passing game and they do it very well. They trail only Cincinnati in terms of yards per pass attempt this season (8.6), a number that has spiked to an NFL high 10.0 over their last three contests. The Niners also lead the league with 9.0 yards per pass attempt on the road this year.

San Francisco is a run-first team, calling runs more often than all but three other teams. As such, it logically follows that they are the league’s best team in terms of yards per completion (12.3). That average escalated to 12.6 yards per catch on the road and 13.0 in the team’s last three games, both NFL bests.

Jimmy Garoppolo, who played 15 of the Niners’ 17 games during the regular season, leads the league with 7.7 net yards per pass attempt. He finds the perfect victims here against which to continue that dominance, as Dallas allowed the fourth most yards per completion this season (11.1). They conceded the third most per completion at home, as well (12.0).

Garoppolo completed a pass of 40 yards or longer in seven of his 15 games this year and had five more games in which he completed a pass of 32 yards or longer. He actually completed a pass of at least 25 yards in all 15 outings.

Dallas allowed a catch long enough to win this prop for us in 11 of its 17 regular season games with 14 different guys hauling in a 40-yarder or longer. The Cowboys also conceded a 30-yard reception or longer in all but one of their games, with quarterbacks finding 25 guys for catches of that distance.

This game has the highest total of any Wild Card game and seems to promise plenty of points. Expect Garoppolo to find at least one guy for a deep completion to cash this prop.

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Deebo Samuel To Score 1+ Receiving Touchdown and 1+ Rushing Touchdown

Deebo Samuel has evolved into arguably the league’s most versatile offensive weapon. He finished fifth in the NFL with 1,405 receiving yards, scoring six times on pass catches. Samuel also ended the regular season with the second most rushing yards on the league’s seventh best rushing offense. He scored on eight of his 59 rushing attempts, wildly tying him for the 10th most rushing touchdowns in football. Oh, and for good measure, Samuel also threw for a touchdown in last week’s come-from-behind road win at Los Angeles that earned this team a playoff spot.

Samuel’s 14 combined rushing and receiving scores was second in the league amongst wideouts to only Cooper Kupp (16) and Deebo Samuel only played in 16 of his team’s games. He spread his touchdowns out, too, and that consistent ability to find the endzone is important for a prop bet like this. Samuel’s eight rushing touchdowns came in seven different games, with seven of them occurring over the team’s final nine outings. His six receiving scores came in five different games.

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Deebo Samuel had four games with multiple touchdowns this season. He had two receiving scores against Seattle, two rushing scores against Minnesota, and a rushing and passing touchdown last week against the Rams. Worth noting with the high total set for this affair, those three games produced an average of 53.3 points per game, each totaling at least 49 points. He also had one game where he would have cashed this prop, scoring one rushing and one receiving touchdown in a 31-10 win over the Rams in their first meeting.

Samuel had 10, 14, 10, and 12 combined rushes and catches, respectively, in his last four regular season games when the impact of the results was amplified. Those were the most touches he had in any games this season, showing his importance to the Niners’ offense.

Dallas may not have allowed a rushing score by a receiver this season, but the Cowboys did allow the fifth most rushing yards per game by wideouts. They also conceded at least one wide receiver touchdown catch in 12 games during the regular season, allowing 16 to wideouts in total. The Dallas secondary has been suspect at points this year and Samuel is, in our opinion, the most dangerous player on the field. With George Kittle also drawing attention, and with this prop paying +700, we think this is absolutely worth a shot. If you are feeling more conservative, you can find Samuel to score anytime at around -115 odds and Samuel to score two or more touchdowns at roughly +450 odds.

Dak Prescott Under 298.5 Pass + Rush Yards

The total on this game makes it feel like Dak Prescott will undoubtedly have a big game. However, slapping a nearly 300 yard requirement on him for his combined passing and rushing yards seems a bit ambitious.

For starters, Prescott only topped that number in six of his 16 games this season and only got above 308 combined yards in four games. Also, San Francisco ranks sixth best in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (206.5). Five of the six teams Prescott topped this prop’s total against are 13th or worse in that category and he threw for 71 yards in overtime in the other.

San Francisco also sits seventh in the NFL, allowing just 32.1 pass attempts per game and is fifth in the league in least plays per game by its competitors (60.7). The Niners’ rushing attack has a way of shrinking the game for their opponents and Prescott could fall victim to that here.

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Wildly, 13 of the last 16 quarterbacks to face the 49ers this season have finished under their passing yardage prop numbers. In fact, not a single quarterback has thrown for 300 yards against San Francisco since Week 1 when Jared Goff staged that impressive comeback effort after getting blown out early.

Look at it this way. Only one quarterback has topped 261 passing yards against the Niners since Week 1 and that was Joe Burrow, who averaged more passing yards per game than Prescott. Further, Prescott never rushed for more than 35 yards in a game this season. San Francisco allows 21 yards per game on the ground to opposing quarterbacks, despite playing in a division with Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson. Even if you give Prescott that high end 261 pass yard number and his season high 35 rushing yards, he still wouldn’t have enough to crack this prop.