The Top Broncos vs. Chiefs Player Props Picks

12/05/2021

patrick mahomes — Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL used its flex power to move the Denver-Kansas City matchup into the primetime spot on Sunday night in Week 13. The Broncos head to Kansas City with an opportunity to jump the Chiefs in the standings if they can end an 11 game losing streak in this head-to-head history. We analyzed the available player prop bets for this AFC West grudge match and isolated three which we feel should prove worthy of your attention.

Let’s take a look at the best Broncos vs. Chiefs player props picks for this NFL Week 13 matchup.

The Best Broncos vs. Chiefs Player Props

Tim Patrick Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Kansas City’s defense has come to life during the four game winning streak that has jumped them into first place in the AFC West. The Chiefs have not allowed a running back to score against them since Week 4 and have gone three straight games without a tight end or quarterback scoring against them. The only position to consistently find the end zone against them, in fact, is the wide receiver position.

On some level, that stands to reason, as Kansas City has the ninth worst pass defense in football allowing over 250 yards per game through the air. In fact, the percentage of yards obtained against the Chiefs via the pass is the 10th highest in football and jumps even higher to seventh when they are at home.

Kansas City has allowed a receiver to score in all but three games this season. One of those three games came in the team’s last outing against Dallas, but they have not gone consecutive games without a wide receiver getting in the endzone against them. The Chiefs have also allowed 12 total scores by wideouts in their 11 games.

On the other side, no one is likely to call Denver a dominant passing team, as they have just 14 passing scores all season, with half of them going to wide receivers. However, there is reason to have faith in Tim Patrick to have a solid opportunity to score in this one. For starters, despite not being the household name that Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Noah Fant are, Patrick is still third on the team in receptions and pass targets and second in receiving yards. Most importantly for us, though, he actually has more receiving touchdowns than any of those guys, leading this Denver team with four.

surely that cannot be trevon diggs giving up a touchdown to tim patrick pic.twitter.com/RbUtiutuhY

— ruby (@GoToHeIlGannon) November 7, 2021

That’s right, Tim Patrick has more than half of the Broncos’ wide receiver scores 11 games into a season in which they are still vying for a playoff spot. He is also in the top 30 in the league in yards per catch (14.1) and scored two of the team’s three longest receiving touchdowns this season. That could prove vital against a Kansas City secondary that has allowed eight touchdown passes of 20 yards or more this season, with six of those going to wide receivers.

Of final note, three of Patrick’s four scores this season have come on the road. And, in a crucial game for Denver, but one in which they are listed as heavy dogs, we could see a lot of late passing from this group as they potentially chase the game in the second half.

Byron Pringle Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Denver is an excellent defense, so it is tough to find major flaws in what the Broncos do on that side of the ball. They allow the third least points per game and are well-balanced against the run and pass, sitting 12th and 10th, respectively, for yards allowed via each. However, when you look at where the touchdowns scored against the Broncos are going, it jumps off the page that wide receivers are the main threat to score against them.

Denver has allowed 21 offensive touchdowns this season and 15 of those came through the air (71.4 percent). Of those 15, 11 were scored by wideouts (73.3 percent). The Broncos did not allow a receiver to reach paydirt last week, but they have not gone consecutive games without conceding a score to a wideout yet this season.

Obviously, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are always going to draw most of an opponent’s attention, which often leaves guys like Byron Pringle in one-on-one coverage spots. We think Pringle could thrive with those opportunities in this one as he is a proven deep threat and so many of the receiver scores Denver has allowed have come on long passes.

? BYRON PRINGLE TOUCHDOWN ?pic.twitter.com/itPUduiyYH

— Sidelines – Kansas State (@SSN_KState) September 20, 2021

That’s right, seven of the 11 receiver scores against Denver in 2021 have been 20 yards or longer. Meanwhile, two of Pringle’s three scores this season have also been over 20 yards. He averages 14.7 yards per catch, which is best on a team full of burners and also the 22nd best average in the league. In fact, eight of his 23 receptions on the season have gone for 20 yards or longer. Those eight place him just one behind Hill and two behind Kelce for the team lead, despite having 61 and 44 less catches, respectively, than those guys.

Longest Field Goal Made – Kansas City

These field goal props often have a bit of an arbitrary feel to them, but we think this one has solid value, paying out better than even money on what we believe is the significantly more likely outcome. First, while Brandon McManus has made three more field goals on three more attempts than Harrison Butker this season, it’s actually Butker, who made 11 of his 12 home attempts, trumping McManus, who made 10 of his 11 away.

Butker has made at least one field goal in nine of the Chiefs’ 11 games, while McManus failed to make one three times in his 11 outings. Butker also made at least one field goal in all six of his home games in 2021, drilling multiple field goals in five of those six contests. On the other side, McManus failed to kick a field goal in one of his five away matches.

McManus benefits from playing half of his games in the thin Colorado air, often producing long field goal attempts and makes. However, he has actually only made one field goal of 50 yards or longer this season and that came on the road in a dome. That seems to line up with Denver going for it and converting on fourth down sixth most in the league (0.9 times per game). We think that could certainly play a part in this one, given Denver’s underdog status and the likelihood that they will need touchdowns and not field goals to try to stay/get back in the game.

Harrison Butker’s 34-yard field goal gives Kansas City the lead with 1:07 remaining❗️#ChiefsKingdom

pic.twitter.com/6pCsqXEdBS

— TWSN (@TWSN___) November 2, 2021

Conversely, if Kansas City lives up to its double-digit favorite designation here, they could elect to kick those field goals in coin-flip fourth down situations in order to increase a late lead, potentially changing the number of scores the Broncos need to keep up. You might not expect this from the Chiefs, with their reputation for taking chances and trusting Patrick Mahomes, but they are actually just 21st in the NFL in fourth down conversions per game this season (0.6). Kansas City has also converted just 33.3 percent of its fourth down attempts at home this year, which might encourage the Chiefs to kick field goals in those decision-making positions.

Butker certainly should have the trust of his coaches when those moments arise. He has already made four field goals of 52 yards or longer this year, with three of them coming here at home, including a season long 55-yarder. He has made 68 percent of his attempts from 50 yards or longer in his career and has a 58-yard make to his name. McManus, who has made just one of three attempts from 50 or more in 2021, is just 28-53 in his career from that range (52.8 percent) and also has the same career long make as Butker, despite getting all of those extra games in Denver.