cowboys saints player props picks
PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

Suddenly, the Dallas Cowboys have lost three of their last four games. Now, Dallas will be without head coach Mike McCarthy as they try to bounce back against the reeling New Orleans Saints. While both teams come into this matchup stumbling as of late, it remains an important Week 13 game that is expected to draw big betting action.

Let’s take a look at the best Cowboys vs. Saints player props picks for Thursday Night Football, complete with full betting analysis.

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The Best Cowboys vs. Saints Player Props Picks

Michael Gallup Anytime Touchdown Scorer

We love finding Michael Gallup returning better than 2:1 odds for this prop bet. While Gallup has yet to score this season, mainly due to lack of action, he did finish last season with four touchdowns in the team’s final five contests, getting targeted an average of 7.6 times per game over that stretch.

Gallup has only appeared in four games thus far in 2021, returning for the team’s last two contests following a calf injury. He has returned with a flourish, however, catching 10 of 18 targets and topping 100 yards in the Cowboys’ Thanksgiving Day setback.

With Amari Cooper still sidelined, CeeDee Lamb returning from a concussion, and Cedrick Wilson still listed as questionable, Gallup promises to play an important role in the team’s offense again this Thursday.

Lamb missed last week and Dallas wideouts didn’t score. That made it two weeks in a row without the position finding the end zone, as Dallas scored zero touchdowns the previous outing against Kansas City. Prior to that, a Dallas receiver scored in seven straight games, including two wide receiver touchdowns in six straight.

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Why is this relevant? Because Lamb only scored in three of the seven games in that streak, meaning plenty of touchdowns for other receivers. Wilson and Cooper had three scores each spread out over those games, while Malik Turner added two more of his own. In fact, a wideout other than Lamb scored in five of those seven games.

In terms of matchups,  the New Orleans defense is vulnerable against the pass. Though respectable overall in terms of yardage and scoring with a 12th ranked unit, it’s actually the 10th worst in football in passing yards allowed per game. The Saints allowed four passing touchdowns last week alone to Buffalo and 17 of the 26 offensive touchdowns scored against them have come through the air (65.4 percent). In fact, New Orleans has seen 85.7 percent of the touchdowns scored against come via the pass, the third highest rate in the NFL.

Finally, 11 of the 17 passing touchdowns scored against the Saints were caught by wide receivers (64.7 percent). We think Gallup joins the list here.

Marquez Callaway Longest Reception Over 18.5 Yards

New Orleans will be trying to keep pace with the NFL’s top offense in terms of yards gained and third best scoring unit in this one and may need to take to the air to do so. Thankfully, the Saints will face a Dallas group which allows the sixth most passing yards per game to this point.

Something that has plagued the Cowboys all season long has been big plays in the passing game. At least two different players in every game this season have had at least one catch of 18 yards or longer. In all five of the Cowboys’ road games, at least three players managed that feat, with two wide receivers doing so in each.

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The Cowboys allow the third most yards per completion this season (11.6). So, when you consider that 33 different players (3.0 per game) and 21 wideouts (1.9 per game) have topped this prop’s requirement against Dallas in 2021, it’s worth considering which Saints players are most likely to join that expansive list. For us, Marquez Callaway immediately jumps to the top.

Callaway is the only New Orleans wide receiver to feature in all 11 of the team’s games. He leads the team in targets and receiving touchdowns and is tied for the team lead in receptions. He also sits second in receiving yards and has been targeted at least four times in seven straight games. The Tennessee product has a catch for at least 14 yards in eight straight games, including a 17-yard reception or longer in each of the last three.

He averages 14.7 yards per catch and will be facing the worst yards per catch opponent his team has seen all year. Tennessee (20th) and Washington (23rd) were the two worst yards per catch defenses he had seen previously.

Notably, he had a 22-yard catch against the Titans and a 49-yard reception against Washington. He also had his season high in catches, targets, yards, and touchdowns in that game against the latter. Expect a similar effort here, especially if Alvin Kamara returns and draws his typical attention from the Dallas defense.

Greg Zuerlein Over 1.5 Total Made Field Goals

The Dallas scoring offense has been erratic of late. As such, we elected to back Greg Zuerlein to make multiple field goals in this one. After a four game stretch leading into the team’s bye, Dallas averaged 39 points per game. But in the four games following the week off, the unit posted just 22 points per contest. Encouragingly, they scored 33 points in last week’s loss, but the last two times the Cowboys scored 30 or more, they followed it up with 20 and 9 points, respectively.

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Zuerlein nailed multiple field goals in both of those contests, though, and has now made more than one in five straight games and seven of the nine in which he has competed this season. Zuerlein has made 13 of 17 field attempts on the road in 2021, including at least two in all five outings. He will be playing in a kicker-friendly dome for this one, a stadium type in which he has made 8 of his 10 attempts this season.

Remember, Dallas leads the league in yards per game and is eighth in field goal attempts per game (2.2). That number spikes to 3.4 attempts per game on the road, tied for the second most in the NFL. Interestingly, New Orleans allows opponents the 10th most trips to the red zone per game at home this year (3.4), but concedes the fourth least red zone touchdowns per game (1.5), leaving plenty of opportunities for opponents to attempt field goals.

As such, the Saints allow the fourth most field goal attempts per game in football and a productive Dallas offense should be able to get into field goal range enough for Zuerlein to convert this prop bet.

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