The Top Rams vs. Packers Player Props Picks

11/28/2021

rams packers player props — PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

One of the most high-profile clashes of the NFL season occurs this Sunday in Green Bay when the Packers (8-3) host the Rams (7-3). Green Bay remains undefeated at Lambeau Field, while the Rams come into this matchup looking to avoid a three-game losing streak. This matchup is loaded with star talent all over the field and we looked at some of the individual matchups involved, and player props betting figures to be popular on this one.

Let’s take a look at our favorite Rams vs. Packers player props picks, complete with betting analysis for this NFL Week 12 matchup.

This may seem a lofty number for Aaron Rodgers to hit here, considering he has only topped this number twice through 10 games and one of those was in an overtime affair. However, there are plenty of reasons to believe the reigning MVP will succeed.Aaron Rodgers Over 24.5 Completions

For starters, the Rams allow the sixth most completions per game this season, conceding 25.2 per game. They also allow the eighth most pass attempts per game, seeing opponents throw 36.9 times per outing against them. Even at Rodgers’ 66.8 completion percentage on the season, a comparable number of attempts for him here would invariably lead to at least 24 completions.

.@AaronRodgers12 was dealing in Week 11:

? 23/33
? 385 passing yards
? 4 touchdowns pic.twitter.com/bcyZ72zy1s

— NFL (@NFL) November 23, 2021

And, we think he will complete passes at a higher rate today. First, with Jalen Ramsey on the field and the Rams mainly a zone coverage defense, Rodgers will be forced to utilize safe, underneath passes, often to his backs. With Rodgers’ toe a potential issue for him, you would have to imagine he does not want to hold on to the ball any longer than necessary against Aaron Donald and company. Dinks and dunks are a quick recipe to cash an over on a completions prop, especially in a game that could potentially be high-scoring and might even find Green Bay chasing the game in the second half.

Interestingly, the two times Rodgers topped this completion number in 2021 came against the only two other teams they have faced with six or more wins. That sort of tells you that when Green Bay plays a game against elite opposition, the Packers lean on their star quarterback, preferring to win or lose on the strength of his right arm. With Aaron Jones still at less than full health, expect the same here today in a game that will go a long way to deciding playoff positioning for both franchises.

Josiah Deguara Anytime Touchdown Scorer

With Davante Adams likely to be put in positions away from Ramsey here, naturally drawing extra attention and help in the secondary, an intelligent quarterback like Aaron Rodgers will invariably get his other guys involved as often as possible against single-coverage and the tight end position is an exploitable one against the Rams, especially of late.

Three of the last five receiving touchdowns scored against Los Angeles have been caught by tight ends, including one in each of the team’s last three games. While Josiah Deguara is still lightly used at this point, he did score a touchdown last week and has caught two balls per game in each of the four games since Robert Tonyan was lost for the season to injury, up from one a game prior. He’s certainly the pass-catching tight end preference to Marcedes Lewis, who is in the game to block.

What a throw from Aaron Rodgers, I mean… my goodness. And a nice catch from Josiah Deguara for his first NFL touchdown! Packers strike before halftime pic.twitter.com/5qfyLQEax2

— packers clips (@packers_clips) November 21, 2021

Green Bay tight ends may have just three scores on the season, but Rodgers will throw the ball to anyone around the endzone. He has thrown 21 touchdowns this season to eight different players. Rodgers averages the eighth most touchdown passes per game in the league with Green Bay sitting tied for fourth in touchdown passes per game at home (2.3). The Rams will not want Adams beating them for scores again like he did in the playoff meeting last season and Deguara could be that alternative option for Rodgers to hit with a touchdown pass for nearly a 4:1 payout.

The Rams are one of the best teams thus far at limiting opponents’ passing touchdowns. Yet, a third of the passing scores they have allowed have gone to tight ends. Last season, Rodgers threw a third of his 48 touchdowns to tight ends. With Deguara off a score last week and the Rams having conceded a touchdown to a tight end in three straight games, the payoff here is highly favorable with respect to the likelihood of the event’s occurrence.

Cooper Kupp Anytime Touchdown Scorer

The Los Angeles Rams have hit a two week drought in terms of wide receiver scoring after their wideouts had scored at least two touchdowns in seven of the team’s first eight games, including three scores in five of those outings. Wrapped up in that scoring shortage, of course, is Cooper Kupp, who has been stuck on 10 receiving touchdowns since his Week 8 score against Houston.

However, we don’t see this as a cause for concern and believe that his mini two-game scoreless hiccup has simply served to make him a more affordable buy for this game. After all, this is still the NFL’s leader in receptions, a guy who sits second in targets and tied for first with those 10 touchdown catches. Amazingly, Kupp is catching 73.3 percent of the balls thrown his way, the 15th best mark amongst wideouts, despite being thrown to so often.

Kupp has scored in six of his team’s 10 games this season and this is just the second time he has been held scoreless in back-to-back games. The other time that occurred, he promptly bounced back by catching nine of 12 targets for 130 yards and two scores away at the Giants, a team with an identical opponent passing touchdown percentage to the Pack (66.7 percent). That is the fifth worst rate in football and, for Green Bay, worsens to 80 percent when the Packers are at home.

Cooper Kupp is having a MONSTER year pic.twitter.com/IZD7sCuhTs

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) October 31, 2021

And, it’s not as if Kupp’s usage has decreased at all. He tied a season high in targets and set back-to-back season highs with 11 receptions in each of the last two games. He has seen double-digits in targets in every game but one, seeing nine in that outlier. He has at least seven catches in all five road games scoring five touchdowns in those outings.

Of final note, Green Bay has struggled against slot receivers this season and Kupp is probably the best the league has to offer at that position. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, who both spend significant time out of the slot, accounted for all three receiver scores for the Vikings last week against Green Bay. Prior to that, Terry McLaurin scored the previous wide receiver touchdown against the Packers and even Chris Hogan chipped in a slot score against Green Bay in his time with the Saints this season. Kupp should get off his mini-slide here, especially with Kevin King, one of Green Bay’s starting corners, doubtful to play.

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