The Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) have fought their way back to the top of the AFC West following three straight wins. Their latest test will be against the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys (7-2). Both teams enter this one feeling good after blowout wins a week ago. With plenty of star power on the field and a late afternoon national billing, plenty of betting action is expected on this game.
Let’s take a look at our favorite Cowboys vs. Chiefs player props picks, complete with betting analysis for this NFL Week 11 matchup.
Top Cowboys vs. Chiefs Player Props
CeeDee Lamb Anytime Touchdown Scorer
CeeDee Lamb scored two touchdowns last week against Atlanta, giving him six scores on the season. He leads the Cowboys in receiving touchdowns and is tied for the ninth most in the NFL, despite Dallas already having had its bye week.
Lamb also leads the team in catches of 20+ yards (13), with three of those grabs going for scores. He is tops on the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, too.
In fact, he is 23rd amongst all receivers in catches per game (5.22), ninth in receiving yards per game (80.67), 14th in yards per catch (15.4), and tied for 22nd in targets per game (8.11). In other words, you are receiving better than even money for Dallas’ top wideout and one of the best receivers in the NFL this season to score.
CeeDee Lamb hauls it in for the TD ?
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/asjgoI6zmy— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 14, 2021
Lamb will be facing a welcoming defense to boot. Kansas City has already allowed eight touchdown catches of 20 yards or longer, with six of those going to receivers. The Chiefs are ranked 23rd against the pass, allowing 258.6 yards per game, and will be facing the Cowboys’ top-ranked yardage offense. The Cowboys throw it for 294.3 yards per game, fourth most in the league, en route to 31.6 points per game, also an NFL best. Dak Prescott should be able to inflict some damage against Kansas City’s 20th ranked scoring defense, meaning Lamb should get some chances to get into the end zone.
Kansas City has allowed 18 passing touchdowns through 10 games, tied for the seventh worst rate in football. Opposing wide receivers have scored 12 times already against the Chiefs, including at least once in eight of their 10 games. On the flip side, Dallas wide receivers have scored 16 touchdowns through nine games, including at least once in eight of those outings. They have crossed the goal line at least twice seven times already, including doing so in each of the team’s last six contests.
The Chiefs have not allowed an opposing running back to score since Week 4, so Dallas might be forced to challenge Kansas City through the air in the red zone, where the Chiefs have the seventh worst opponent red zone touchdown scoring percentage. Lamb will continue to be the focal point for many of these and should find paydirt in this inevitable shootout.
Be sure to check out these Week 11 NFL upset picks.
Patrick Mahomes Under 316.5 Passing Yards
If you watched last Sunday night’s Chiefs-Raiders game and are a believer that the Chiefs are truly back to form, then this prop is not for you. We are not convinced of that just yet and think there is tremendous value built into this one thanks to those who are.
Yes, Patrick Mahomes threw for 406 yards against the Raiders, but that was only the second time he has topped 280 yards since Week 2. After that Week 2 outburst against Baltimore’s 32nd ranked pass defense, Mahomes threw for just 260 yards the following week. After going for 397 yards in Week 6 against Washington’s 30th ranked pass defense, he managed just 206 yards in Week 7. Can we expect another step backwards here?
Mahomes is averaging 294 passing yards per game overall this season, but just 262 yards per game through the air at home. In fact, he has thrown for 275 yards or fewer in each of his last four home games.
If you look at Dallas’ overall ranking of 21st in passing yards against, you may be wholly underwhelmed. However, that number is a bit deceiving. The Cowboys gave up 1,043 yards through the air in their first three games alone (347.3 yards per game), data which has skewed the rest of their product this season.
In reality, Dallas has not allowed this prop’s yardage number in any game since Week 3, giving up just 231.3 passing yards per game over the team’s last six games.
Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs now picks off Matt Ryan, number 8 on the year.pic.twitter.com/5TkYUDCH86
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 14, 2021
That number would be good enough to rank Dallas 13th against the pass, but it gets even better. Over the last three games, Dallas has allowed just 168.3 passing yards per game, the league’s third best mark during that run.
With Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and several key members of the Kansas City offensive line all dinged up here, take the generous cushion this big yardage number provides and play Mahomes to stay under.
Ezekiel Elliott Longest Reception Over 11.5 Yards
Most people don’t think of Ezekiel Elliott as an asset in the passing game. However, Elliott has been targeted fourth most on the team this season (32), catching the fourth most passes for the Cowboys (26). He averages nearly three catches per game and faces a Kansas City defense that allows an average of seven receptions per game by backs this season. In fact, opposing running backs have caught at least four balls in six of the Chiefs’ last eight games.
So, we can be confident that Elliott is going to get several chances to satisfy this prop. Notably, Elliott has caught at least three balls in each of his last four games, averaging 4.3 receptions per contest in that stretch. His long reception in three of those four games was good for at least 15 yards, plenty enough to satisfy this prop’s requirement.
#CowboysNation watch Ezekiel Elliott catch a swing pass from Dak Prescott and truck Jalen Mills for a first down ??????#DallasCowboys #Cowboys pic.twitter.com/hXFWAjSR3Y
— Dallas Cowboys Collaboration (@mailman_phil) October 25, 2021
Elliott is facing a Kansas City defense that has allowed 12 different backs to have a catch of 12 yards or more. At least one back accomplished that feat in nine of the Chiefs’ 10 games.
If you watched the end of the Sunday Night Football game last week, you saw Kansas City sit back late in the game with a big lead and let the Raiders dink and dunk. If the Chiefs get another sizable lead here, don’t be surprised to see Elliott chew up some cheap yards and cash this prop if he hasn’t already done so by that point against the league’s 10th worst pass defense.
At the end of the day, the Chiefs allow 11.5 yards per catch this season, sixth most in the league. That number spikes to 12.5 yards per reception at home, the fourth highest in the NFL.
Elliott should be able to break free for a 12-yarder or better at some point.
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