The Top Rams vs. 49ers Player Props Picks for Monday Night Football

11/15/2021

rams 49ers player props — PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

The Los Angeles Rams bolstered Matt Stafford’s weaponry this week with the signing of Odell Beckham Jr. before almost instantly losing Robert Woods to an ACL tear. The 7-2 Rams travel north to play the 3-5 San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football, putting their perfect 4-0 road record on the line.

Let’s take a look at this NFL Week 10 Monday Night Football matchup with our best Rams vs. 49ers player props picks.

Rams vs. 49ers Player Props

Jimmy Garoppolo Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Jimmy Garoppolo to score a touchdown on Monday night shows odds upwards of +450.

The Rams allow the seventh least rushing yards per game in the league in 2021, and they have not allowed a rushing touchdown of over four yards this season. Meanwhile, six of the 10 scores they have conceded on the ground came from just one yard out.

The 49ers have a middling rushing attack and Elijah Mitchell is unlikely to be the guy to suddenly break through against this stout Rams rush defense. As such, with Kyle Shanahan’s creative play-calling, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a quarterback sneak when San Francisco gets in close.

I pulled every throw/run from #49ers Jimmy Garoppolo vs Packers

Full Video: https://t.co/qTnH90FSuH pic.twitter.com/MlKUwVHxrI

— Brad (@Graham_SFN) September 27, 2021

Three of the rushing touchdowns the Rams have allowed this season have come by quarterbacks, two of those from a yard out, including Ryan Tannehill last week. San Francisco has already had four quarterback rushing touchdowns this season, all from within five yards of the goal line — and three of those have come from Garoppolo.

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In fact, San Francisco’s quarterbacks have scored just one fewer touchdown with their legs than the team’s running backs and Garoppolo is tied for the team lead in rushing touchdowns with Mitchell.

For this kind of payout, Garoppolo is worth a play here as a high upside anytime touchdown scorer.

Van Jefferson Anytime Touchdown Scorer

This was certainly a turbulent week for the Rams’ receiver room. Robert Woods was lost for the season on Friday. Odell Beckham Jr. was signed and should be active for this game, but you would have to imagine his involvement in the offense is likely to be rather limited.

Facing a San Francisco secondary which has had a lot of moving parts this season, one would have to then assume that Cooper Kupp is going to be priority number one for 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans, surely receiving safety help and tons of extra attention.

So, who is left to make an impact from a Los Angeles wide receiving group which has scored 19 touchdowns in nine games this season?

I knew it was a touchdown before he let it go. Remember when people said Van Jefferson wasn’t a deep threat for the #Rams? Maybe he just needed a QB that could throw the deep ball. pic.twitter.com/UUs33ZZtlE

— JAKE ELLENBOGEN (@JKBOGEN) September 13, 2021

Van Jefferson looks to be the biggest beneficiary of this offense’s recent instability. After all, Jefferson is already the team’s third leading receiver in terms of yardage and touchdowns, behind just Kupp and Woods. The second-year Florida product also sits ninth among active wide receivers in yards per catch this season (16.0).

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Jefferson has caught at least three balls in each of his last four games and has received at least six targets in each of his last three outings. Despite his lofty yards per catch average, two of Jefferson’s three touchdowns were 14 yards or less, worth noting since six of the seven touchdowns the Niners have allowed to wide receivers this season were less than 14 yards.

Rams wide receivers have scored two or more touchdowns in seven of the team’s nine games, with one of the two games in which they failed to do so coming last week. After the only other shutout for the group back in Week 5, Rams wideouts responded with three touchdown catches at the Giants the following week. With Kupp getting bracketed, but Los Angeles wide receivers scoring 78.3% of the team’s receiving touchdowns, Jefferson is the next and far best choice to get on the scoresheet Monday night.

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Matthew Stafford Under 280.5 Passing Yards

Despite major early changes in the secondary for the San Francisco 49ers due to injuries, this remains a dynamic pass-stopping group. The Niners are sixth best in passing yards against, allowing just 206.5 yards per game through the air. Since Week 1, when Jared Goff had the big second half when Detroit was getting blown out and threw it 57 times for 338 yards, no other quarterback has topped 261 passing yards against San Francisco.

LA is the place to be.

? Matthew Stafford talks about the addition of @obj. pic.twitter.com/t2PjWQnlix

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) November 11, 2021

The 49ers faced Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, and Carson Wentz this season and, yet, none of those guys came anywhere close to this prop’s yardage total. Obviously, Matthew Stafford leads the league in total passing yards, but he’s actually only third in net passing yards per game with 296.7 yards.

That’s an impressive number, but it’s also just one or two completions worth of yards more than this prop’s requirement, as Stafford averages 12.65 yards per completion.

So, the question becomes whether San Francisco can keep Stafford to two fewer completions than his average.

Well, the Niners allow just 21.2 completions per game, tied for the league’s eighth lowest number. Meanwhile, it dips to 19.7 completions over the last three games. San Francisco gives up just 19.8 completions per game on the season at home. Stafford averages 24.33 completions per game, 11th most in football. If San Francisco holds him to 22 at 12.65 yards per completion, he lands right around 282 yards and near our prop total.

Since Week 1, no opposing quarterback has topped 23 completions against San Francisco with only three guys reaching 20 completions. Meanwhile, San Francisco only allows 9.7 yards per completion, ninth best in football. With Woods out and Odell Beckham Jr. still get acclimated, Stafford isn’t going to have the usual bevy of options for this primetime affair. It’s hard to imagine him topping 22 completions and maintaining that season average of over 12.5 yards per catch, which is what it would take to crack this prop.

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