chiefs raiders player props
PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

The Kansas City Chiefs head to Las Vegas to face the Raiders for the first time this season in the foreign position of looking up at them in the AFC West standings. Despite an inferior record and a slew of turnovers by Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City still finds itself a road favorite in this Sunday Night Football game.

Let’s take a look at this NFL Week 10 Sunday Night Football matchup with our best Chiefs vs. Raiders player props picks.

Chiefs vs. Raiders Player Props

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Hunter Renfrow Anytime Touchdown Scorer

This is a pretty solid return on the Raiders’ leading receiver to score in a home game with a total set in the 50s. Hunter Renfrow has a team-high 45 catches on 60 targets this season, good for the tenth best catch rate among wide receivers. He has six catches of 20 or more yards already this season and has caught a team-high three receiving touchdowns.

The Raiders’ talented slot receiver had seven catches in each of his last two games, both season highs, scoring in last week’s contest. Notably, Renfrow already scored in back-to-back games earlier this season. He also scored in back-to-back outings twice during his 2019 rookie season.

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He catches the perfect opponent this week against a generous Chiefs defense. A Las Vegas wide receiver has scored a touchdown in all but one game this season and the Raiders face a Kansas City team which has allowed a wide receiver to score in seven of nine games. In fact, the Chiefs have given up 16 passing touchdowns through nine games, with nine of those going to receivers. Those 16 receiving scores tie Kansas City for the seventh most against.

Kansas City has not allowed a running back to score since Week 4 and if they keep that streak going here, Renfrow and the Raiders’ receivers should be busy against the Chiefs’  21st ranked pass defense. Expect the Clemson product to find his way across the goal line Sunday night.

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Derek Carr Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes

As mentioned above, the Kansas City Chiefs have clamped down on opposing rushers, keeping them from scoring in five straight games. As such, the Raiders will likely be forced to rely on Derek Carr’s right arm to produce most of the three to four scores oddsmakers project.

Throw last week’s game against Green Bay away, as they faced a backup quarterback. Prior to that outing, the Chiefs, who have conceded at least one receiving touchdown in eight straight games, allowed multiple passing scores in five of their six previous games.

Kansas City has allowed one running back to catch a touchdown and has given up nine passing scores to receivers and six more to tight ends. The Raiders offer talented options in all three of those areas. They have had both a running back and a fullback score a receiving touchdown this season, have had a receiver score in seven of eight games, and have Darren Waller, arguably the league’s best tight end, primed to torment a Kansas City defense which has allowed all six tight end scores against this season over the last six weeks.

Derek Carr leads the NFL’s second best passing attack, averaging over 300 yards through the air per game. Las Vegas is only the 16th best scoring offense in football, but faces the eighth worst scoring defense in this one.

Carr has thrown for multiple scores in six of his team’s eight games, with one of the two where he failed to do so coming last week. He followed up the other failed attempt to throw two or more scores by throwing multiple touchdowns against the league’s second ranked scoring defense in Denver the following outing.

Carr does not possess glamorous touchdown numbers, with 13 on the season through eight games. However, he spreads those around, showing great consistency week to week.

Eight different players have caught touchdowns from Carr already. With the Chiefs allowing the seventh most scores per game through the air in the league this season, Carr should have opportunities to pick them apart with his many and varied weapons here. Throwing two touchdown passes should be very workable for the Vegas signal caller.

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Travis Kelce Over 72.5 Receiving Yards

By the lofty standards Travis Kelce has set throughout his career, he is having a bit of a down season. He is averaging six catches on just under nine targets per game for an average of just under 70 receiving yards per outing. Over a 16-game season, he would be on pace for 96 catches and 1,116 yards, both figures that would be lower than what he put up in each of the last three seasons.

However, that seeming dip in production has helped create a favorable prop total here, one we want to exploit. Kelce has not topped this number in any of his last three games and has done so just once in his last six. But, he faces a Raiders defense that struggles against tight ends this season.

Las Vegas may have only allowed four touchdowns to tight ends, but we aren’t concerned with that. What we are keyed in on is the fact that a tight end has led five of Vegas’ last six opponents in receiving yards, including in each of their last three games. Four tight ends have reached 70 yards against Las Vegas already in 2021, including two AFC west tight ends.

Kelce is still the best tight end talent the Raiders will have faced this season. His “underachieving” numbers from above would be a career year for most players. He is still second on the team in receptions, targets, and receiving yards, behind only Tyreek Hill in those categories, a guy who is second in the entire league in targets and receptions.

Kelce is seventh in the NFL in receptions, 10th in targets, and 13th in receiving yards and leads all tight ends in each category. Asking him to basically hit his average yardage total this season against a team that struggles against his position feels like a gift.

Kelce caught seven of 11 targets for 104 yards in his only other division game this season. He is averaging 74 yards per game on the road this year. Last season, he torched Las Vegas for 108 and 127 yards in the two meetings, catching eight balls in each game.

In fact, he has topped this prop’s requirement in four straight run-ins with the Raiders, reaching at least 62 receiving yards in seven straight in this head-to-head. Expect a breakout game from the star here in primetime.

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