The Three Best NFL Week 10 Upset Picks

11/13/2021

The Jets broke the seal for major NFL upsets two weeks ago when they took down the Bengals, and now the floodgates appear open. Five underdogs of five points or greater won outright a week ago, which begs the question, should we expect more of the same this Sunday?

Let’s take a look at our three best underdog NFL upsets picks for Week 10 action, with ATS predictions.

Three Best NFL Upset Picks for Week 10

Detroit vs. Pittsburgh

The Detroit Lions remain winless halfway through this season. However, things are not quite as bleak as they may seem on the surface. Detroit only lost three of those eight games by 10+ points and have covered four of their five biggest underdog spreads this season, with each seeing the Lions’ opponents favored by more than a touchdown, like is the case here.

Trends to Know

Detroit also enters play with the benefit of an extra week to prepare, coming off the bye. This should prove valuable for first-year head coach Dan Campbell in helping his team reset and adjust a bit.

Detroit is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after a bye and catches Pittsburgh off a draining Monday Night Football win. Pittsburgh also looks ahead to consecutive road games against the Los Angeles Chargers and Cincinnati Bengals, two playoff contenders, and could get caught up in a classic trap game spot here.

Freiday Feeling ?@pat_fry5 | #DETvsPIT: Sunday at 1 pm on FOX pic.twitter.com/epsfgHCgCv

— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) November 12, 2021

Pittsburgh has only covered one of its last six home games and has dropped eight straight as favorites, including seven straight when laying points at Heinz Field. That last streak includes four ATS losses as home favorites this season, games in which the Steelers went 2-2 SU with the two wins coming by two and three points, respectively. In fact, the Steelers did not win any of their five victories this season by more than this spread.

Lions vs. Steelers Pick

Pittsburgh has failed to cover any of its last four games against sub .500 opposition and is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games after a SU victory.

Detroit is coming off a hideous 44-6 loss to at home to Philadelphia two weeks ago. The Lions, however, are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games after a double-digit home loss and have covered five straight games after any ATS loss. Look for them to catch Pittsburgh in a tough spot here and keep this one close.

Our Pick: Detroit +9 (PointsBet -121)

Panthers vs. Cardinals

Ironically, the biggest quarterback news this week out wasn’t Sam Darnold’s inability to play due to injury. Instead, it was the signing of Cam Newton that caught the biggest headlines. Newton is unlikely to feature here, as P.J. Walker should be under center, but regardless of who is running the offense, we believe Carolina is in a great position to make things uncomfortable for the NFC’s current top seed.

Carolina has had terrific head-to-head success against the Cardinals, covering five straight meetings. The Cardinals have certainly not had much continuity offensively of late either, as Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, and A.J. Green all missed last week’s game before Chase Edmonds suffered a high ankle sprain that will sideline him for the foreseeable future.

Arizona was able to navigate its way past San Francisco despite being short-handed last week, but this Carolina defense promises to be a stiffer test. Where San Francisco sits eighth worst in points allowed per game, the Panthers are seventh best. Carolina also boasts the league’s second best yardage defense, led by its No. 2 ranked passing defense.

Trends to Know

The Panthers find themselves significant underdogs here, but that role should not make us nervous. They have covered seven of their last eight chances as road dogs and have run off nine straight covers as underdogs of more than three points against an opponent off a SU underdog win of its own.

? drop pic.twitter.com/KQxmXaGDww

— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) November 12, 2021

Carolina has also been impressive in bounce back situations, which applies here following its 24-6 home loss to New England last Sunday. The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss. They have also covered nine of their last 12 games after scoring less than 15 points previously.

Panthers vs. Cardinals Pick

Carolina has traveled well under head coach Matt Rhule, covering nine of their last 11 away. They face an Arizona team that is just 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games as home favorites. Most also know the correlation with Arizona scoring 25 or more points and winning under head coach Kliff Kingsbury and its inability to do so when scoring less. Well, Carolina has only allowed 25+ points three times this season and covered this line in two of those three outings.

Arizona could play it safe with its banged up stars here or get caught looking ahead to another division battle next week at Seattle. This is too many points to give a tough Carolina defense, no matter who is under center, especially with Christian McCaffrey back in the fold against a mediocre Arizona run-stopping unit.

Our Pick: Carolina +10.5 (DraftKings -110)

Chiefs vs. Raiders

If this was any team other than Kansas City with Patrick Mahomes’ reputation, we would be looking at a far different line in this AFC West Sunday Night Football matchup. As it stands, the 5-4 Chiefs, a team with the league’s most turnovers, are giving points to the 5-3 Raiders in Las Vegas.

We are electing to take this most generous spread to add to what we see as a game in which the Raiders should already have the edge.

All things considered, Las Vegas has handled the departure of former head coach Jon Gruden fairly well. The Raiders are 2-1 since Gruden resigned with the one stumble coming last week in a 23-16 loss to the Giants.

Las Vegas boasts the league’s No. 2 ranked passing attack as part of the league’s No. 6 ranked total offense, one that will face off against Kansas City’s No. 21 ranked pass defense and No. 26 ranked overall defense.

On the other side of the ball, the Raiders’ pass defense, fifth best in football, should prove a solid match for Mahomes and the sixth best passing offense of the Chiefs.

There's nothing quite like Raider Week in prime time ?@Rodney_Harrison joined us this week to break down our upcoming SNF matchup! pic.twitter.com/f5u0vFracT

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 13, 2021

Trends to Know

Las Vegas has been impressive in division play of late, covering seven of the last 10 against AFC West teams, where the Chiefs have dropped four straight against the division as part of a larger 1-10 ATS run against conference opponents. In fact, the Chiefs are still mired in a 5-16 ATS run overall, which, again, lends to just how overvalued this team is by both oddsmakers and the public.

Again, 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall, and the Chiefs are still laying points on the road here?

Andy Reid’s team is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as favorites. They are also just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after an ATS loss and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 following a SU win.

Kansas City survived Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers last week, 13-7, setting them up on the wrong side of two more trends. The Chiefs have failed to cover any of their last five games after allowing 14 or fewer points previously and have also dropped six straight ATS after scoring fewer than 15 points previously.

Chiefs vs. Raiders Pick

On the other side, the Raiders have covered five of their last six as underdogs, including four of the last five as home dogs. They are 2-0 ATS in that role this season.

They are also a solid 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against above .500 opposition. Look for Vegas to move to 7-2 ATS at home on Sunday Night Football, as well as 8-4 ATS on SNF following a SU loss, as the Raiders deliver another blow to Kansas City’s playoff hopes.

Our Pick: Las Vegas +3 (BetMGM -125)

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