titans rams player props
PHOTO CREDIT: CRAIG DUDEK

The Tennessee Titans may have won last week, but the victory came at a great cost. As such, when the Titans take on the Rams tonight, they will do so without star running back Derrick Henry. Still, there will be no shortage of stars under the primetime lights in Los Angeles and no shortage of player props betting.

Let’s take a look at this NFL Week 9 Sunday Night Football matchup with our best Titans vs. Rams player props picks.

Titans vs. Rams Player Props

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Matthew Stafford Over 2.5 Touchdown Passes

A heavily favored Rams team playing at home in a game with a total in the mid 50s is reason enough to consider this prop play. Start factoring in the Rams’ No. 4 passing offense that helps guide the NFL’s No. 5 scoring offense (30.6 points per game), leading to an average of 3.6 touchdowns per game and the wheels should be turning.

Matthew Stafford’s offense averages 2.8 passing touchdowns per game, second most in the league and plenty to top this prop’s requirement. Here at home that number spikes to three passing touchdowns per game.

That’s not all overly difficult to believe when you consider that the Rams own the league’s sixth highest passing touchdown percentage at 75.9 percent, a rate that spikes to 92.3 percent at SoFi Stadium. In fact, the Rams have just one non-passing touchdown at home this season.

Since that time, Stafford has thrown all 10 of the team’s touchdowns in this stadium.

Stafford hasn’t just been adept at throwing touchdowns at home either. He has tossed 22 passes for scores already this season, second only to Tom Brady. He has thrown two or more touchdowns in seven of his eight games and has done enough to cash this prop five times already, good for a solid 62.5 percent. He has averaged 3.3 passing touchdowns per game in his last three games, topping this prop’s number in each.

Tennessee is unlikely to be the team to slow Stafford down either, as the Titans have allowed multiple touchdown passes in five of their eight games this season. Three of those games saw the Titans concede at least three scores through the air, helping to paint the true picture of this Tennessee defense.

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Tennessee, despite its impressive record, has been able to mask defensive shortcomings in large part with Derrick Henry’s legs. The Titans have been consistently outgained by opponents under coach Mike Vrabel and now they are quietly getting lit up through the air.

Tennessee allows the ninth most passing yards and sees its opponents throw the ball more times per game (39.5) than all but four other teams. In fact, Titans’ opponents have thrown 49.7 times per game over their last three contests, over five more attempts per game than any other team in that span. Opponents also call 64.9 percent of their plays as passes against Tennessee, fourth most in football, a number that has jumped to 73.2 percent in the team’s last three outings, easily the greatest rate over that stretch.

Knowing the above, it’s unsurprising that the Titans are just 21st in the NFL in opponents’ passing touchdown percentage (65.2 percent). They also allow an average of 1.9 passing touchdowns per game, the 22nd best mark league-wide. Matthew Stafford should have his way against this bunch with his talented receiving group en route to three or more passing touchdowns for the fourth straight game.

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Cooper Kupp to Score 2+ Touchdowns

Of course, you can easily play it much safer here by laying -175 or greater to get Cooper Kupp as an anytime touchdown scorer, or even chop into that price by playing a Kupp Anytime Scorer and Rams Moneyline combo bet, but we feel that seeing returns in the range of +350 for Kupp to score at least twice is too handsome to pass up given his matchup.

The line and total on the game favor the likelihood of another fruitful day for the Los Angeles offense.

If you’ve paid attention at all, you already know so much of that runs through Kupp. He leads the league in receiving yards by a large margin. He is second in receptions and tied for first in pass targets. Known for his sure hands, he also has a 70 percent catch rate, a top-30 mark by all receivers, which is quite impressive given that the ball is thrown his way over 11 times a game.

It’s even more mind-boggling when you consider that Kupp is averaging 14.7 yards per catch, one of the 25 best averages in the league, meaning an increased difficulty in the catches he is forced to make.

Most importantly for us, however, is Kupp’s amazing touchdown rate this season. He has already caught 10 touchdowns through eight games, two more than any other player.

He has five touchdown receptions in the last three games alone and has only failed to reach paydirt twice this season. Interestingly, only one of those failures was in a team victory, worth noting if you are fans of the Rams moneyline.

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Kupp has caught multiple touchdowns four times already this season and will be facing a Tennessee pass defense that, as described at length above, is vulnerable to touchdown receptions. The Titans have allowed multiple passing touchdowns to wide receivers in five of their eight games in 2021 and have been particularly poor against slot receivers.

Opposing slot receivers have averaged over five catches and 70 yards per game this season against the Titans. When Tennessee is away from home, those numbers jump to 6.2 catches and 84 yards per game. Tyler Lockett, Jamison Crowder, and Cole Beasley all scored against the Titans this season and all caught at least seven balls. Kupp is certainly in that ilk of slot receivers, if not a step ahead. He has the ability and will see the volume necessary for us to feel confident that he can cash a prop wager like this one.

Ryan Tannehill Anytime Touchdown Scorer

This selection offers yet another fantastic return, showing odds well over +300 at several legal online sportsbooks. It also feels like an under-the-radar likelihood in this game, given the situations at hand.

For starters, Tennessee just lost its (and the league’s) leading rusher. Derrick Henry had rushed the ball 219 times already in 2021, which is 79 more attempts than the next closest back, a guy who already played this week (Jonathan Taylor).

It’s virtually impossible to replace a guy who was handling the ball for an average of nearly 30 of the team’s 68.6 offensive plays per game. Instead, the Titans are going to have to be creative offensively, especially having to keep pace with a high-scoring Rams offense.

Statistically, Tannehill is a talented runner. He has 165 rushing yards already in 2021, averaging over seven yards per carry. He has also rushed for three touchdowns this season, including two in the last three weeks.

Interestingly, his three scores came against the three best yardage offenses the Titans have faced: Arizona (8th), Buffalo (6th), and Kansas City (4th). The Rams fit that mold, as well, with their fifth best yardage offense.

Los Angeles has also allowed two quarterbacks to rush for touchdowns already this season. Tom Brady did it in Week 3 and Justin Fields in Week 1, also on Sunday Night Football. For this payout, we are willing to bet that Tannehill joins that list this week in primetime.

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